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Tuesday, February 12

12th Feb - US Open: G7 'statement'



Mitä tulee valtiovarainministeriöön, sen puheet ovat olleet ihan karmeaa soopaa tähän asti ja varmasti myös jatkossa. Valitettavasti laitos on vahvasti hallituksen ohjauksessa ja tämä näkyy kyllä kannanotoissa. Mitenkäs se meni - Suomen saatavat Kreikasta eri kanavien kautta 5000 miljoonaa ja VM kovasti vakuutti puolisen vuotta sitten, että max tappio on n. 400 miljoonaa (samaan aikaan mm. Benkku puhui jo yli miljardin kuramahdollisuudesta). Ilmeisesti Hetemäki haluaa oikein kovasti tulla Sailakseksi Sailaksen paikalle, ja SDP:n mielistely sotkee tämän takia hänen virantoimitustaan. – Juhani Huopainen 18.12.2012


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Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: G-7 Officially Kicks Off The Currency Wars By Denying – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Rally Loses Momentum – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
G7 Calms Currency War Fears – Marc to Market
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Political machinations – BNY Mellon
  Further thoughts on a couple of particularly pertinent issues

EUROPE
Macro Digest: Cyprus......not goodTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: The EU has decided to investigate money laundering in Cyprus before launching a rescue package. This investigation is now a bailout precondition and will instill fear among investors.

Italian elections – what if Berlusconi wins?Nordea (pdf)
Italian general elections, due 24-25 February, are nearing and hence we take the opportunity to sum up our views and add a scenario, where Berlusconi unexpectedly wins the lower house. The election is most likely to produce a favorable outcome in the sense that a reform-minded government can be formed. However, from a market point of view, risks are clearly skewed towards a negative surprise and hence this note will focus on what could go wrong and how markets will react before and after the elections. (summary)

Good deal for Ireland, but no magic bulletbruegel

Deal near on eurozone economic governance laws, says Rehneuobserver
MEPs and ministers are on the verge of agreement on far-reaching economic governance proposals for eurozone states, according to EU economic commissioner Rehn.

ASIA
Japan’s Looming SingularityA Fistful of Euros

OTHER
Nordea Risk Perception IndexNordea (pdf)
Streched pricing finally perceived as overdone – gradual reversal taking effect, supported by ECB-President Draghi. Surges in vol markets lifted Nordea Risk Perception Index above 80, but recent downward correction made it only temporary. FX, equity and credit markets keeps up NRPI in late 70’s. Monetary stimulus and substantial weakening of JPY make USDJPY ATM vol term structure to stick out. Markets set to take a breather before Italian elections and LTRO II redemptions. Exploit recent moves in vol markets to position for markets being kept fairly at bay.

A physical vs forward commodity market disconnectalphaville / FT
What the physical supply and demand situation is telling us is getting increasingly disconnected from what the forward and futures markets are saying. The curve, in short, is feeling mispriced (includes Goldman Sachs-note)

IN FINNISH
Martti Hetemäestä tulee Raimo Sailaksen seuraajaDemokraatti
Demokraatin saamien tietojen mukaan valtiovarainministeriön nykyinen alivaltiosihteeri Martti Hetemäki, 56, valitaan ministeriön ylimmäksi virkamieheksi valtiosihteeri Raimo Sailaksen jälkeen. Sailas jää eläkkeelle helmikuun lopussa. Nimitys on tarkoitus vahvistaa valtioneuvoston yleisistunnossa torstaina.

EU-rahoituksen spinnaus meni pieleenHS