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Thursday, February 14

14th Feb - US Close

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Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Industrial Production, Kraft, Campbell Earnings – WSJ
US: Bonds Up, Stocks Up, USD Up, JPY Up! Fed Up? – ZH

Morning Briefing (Asia): G20 Looms With 'Currency Wars' On The Table – BNY Mellon
  Despite its reassurances, Japan officials will not re-order their priorities on a dime

ECB Forecasters Lower Euro-zone Growth Expectations AgainWSJ
Economists once again cut their growth expectations for the euro zone for this year and next, according to a ECB survey, just as data showed the bloc's two largest economies contracting sharply at the end of last year.

Italian Polls Don’t Point at a Strong Majority for Next GovernmentWSJ
Ten days to the Italian vote and polls experts are still clueless about the outcome of the election. Except for one thing: In a year or two, Italians could be called to cast their vote again

Same old EuropeBruegel
The deal on the Multiannual Financial Framework 2014-2020, which will regulate the EU’s annual budget, is a missed opportunity.

Financial Transaction Tax: Sand in the Wheels?Marc to Market

  Q4 GDP
100-years of solitude in the euro zoneMacroScope / Reuters
The euro zone slipped deeper into recession than economists expected in the fourth quarter of 2012…

The French patient gives most reason to worryNordea
Euro area GDP fell by 0.6% q/q in Q4 of 2012, more than we expected. Indicators point towards a better outcome in Q1. The moderate recovery view for 2013  is based on the expectation of Germany picking up – which stills looks realistic – and France not lagging too far behind – which is far from certain.

This Chart Really Drives Home The Dire Direction Of Eurozone GDPBI

How Cheap Are Equities?The Big Picture
While US equities are fairly reasonably priced, they are not, to use Edwards term, ““unambiguously cheap”.” But for about a week in March of 2009, they were, but if you blinked you may have missed it. Europe, on the other hand, appears to be appreciably cheaper than US equities. (Funny how recessions tend to do that).

Did you hear the one about Rosneft’s 500m barrel hedge?alphaville / FT
The need to sell three hundred to three hundred fifty million barrels of Brent in the forward market will probably keep Brent firmly in backwardation for many months, possibly years.

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