Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Industrial Production, Kraft,
Campbell Earnings – WSJ
US: Bonds Up, Stocks Up, USD Up, JPY Up! Fed Up? – ZH
Morning
Briefing (Asia): G20 Looms With 'Currency Wars' On
The Table – BNY
Mellon
Despite its reassurances, Japan officials will not re-order their priorities
on a dime
EUROPE
ECB Forecasters Lower Euro-zone Growth
Expectations Again
– WSJ
Economists
once again cut their growth expectations for the euro zone for this year and
next, according to a ECB survey, just as data showed the bloc's two largest
economies contracting sharply at the end of last year.
Italian Polls Don’t Point at a Strong Majority
for Next Government
– WSJ
Ten days to
the Italian vote and polls experts are still clueless about the outcome of the
election. Except for one thing: In a year or two, Italians could be called to
cast their vote again
The deal on
the Multiannual Financial Framework 2014-2020, which will regulate the EU’s
annual budget, is a missed opportunity.
Financial Transaction Tax: Sand in the Wheels? – Marc
to Market
Q4 GDP
100-years of solitude in the euro zone – MacroScope
/ Reuters
The euro
zone slipped deeper into recession than economists expected in the fourth
quarter of 2012…
The French patient gives most reason to worry – Nordea
Euro area GDP fell by 0.6% q/q in Q4 of 2012,
more than we expected. Indicators point towards a better outcome in Q1. The
moderate recovery view for 2013 is based
on the expectation of Germany picking up – which stills looks realistic – and
France not lagging too far behind – which is far from certain.
OTHER
How Cheap Are Equities? – The Big
Picture
While US
equities are fairly reasonably priced, they are not, to use Edwards term,
““unambiguously cheap”.” But for about a week in March of 2009, they were, but
if you blinked you may have missed it. Europe, on the other hand, appears to be appreciably
cheaper than US equities. (Funny how recessions tend to do that).
Did you hear the one about Rosneft’s 500m
barrel hedge? – alphaville
/ FT
The need to
sell three hundred to three hundred fifty million barrels of Brent in the
forward market will probably keep Brent firmly in backwardation for many
months, possibly years.