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Monday, February 25

25th Feb - EU Open: Waiting for Italy's vote

I'll be updating the Italian election-special today. The world seems normal otherwise: JPY and GBP are weak, Europe muddles through, China's PMI reverted to mean after couple of very good months.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekly Support (weekly market reviews and previews)

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: US CFNAI, US Dallas Fed Mfg Index, EURUSDTradingFloor
Two economic reports from the US are the main attraction for today’s economic news, and neither one is likely to provide much relief for EURUSD’s recent slide.

Market Preview: Moody's cuts UK's rating; Italian elections eyed TradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Monday amid hopes that aggressive monetary easing might continue in the US and Japan. On Friday, Moody's lowered its credit rating on the UK to Aa1. Italian election exit polls will also be in focus today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)


On Friday evening Moody’s became the first rating agency to strip the UK of its AAA rating. The first day of the Italian elections took place with unpublished opinion polls suggesting that Bersani is likely to win with a small margin. Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing decline to 50.4
 
AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Jännitystä Italian vaaleista – Saksan talous kääntyy * Kiinan talouden maltillinen elpyminen saanee jatkoa * Odotuksia pienemmät LTRO-takaisinmaksut painoivat Saksan korkoja

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Tänään sijoittajien huomio kiinnittyy Italian vaalitulokseen. Edellisviikko päättyi vahvasti Saksan positiivisen IFO-indeksin myötä. Aamulla julkaistu Kiinan ostopäällikköindeksi oli sen sijaan heikko.

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
Is a monetary union without fiscal/political union doomed? mainly macro

Debt, Spreads, and Mysterious OmissionsKrugman / NYT
Euro DelusionsKrugman / NYT

  UK DOWNGRADE
The UK loses one of its triple-A’sNordea
The UK was downgraded one notch by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Moody’s says the rating outlook is now stable. It is not a major surprise that the UK has been downgraded.

Bank puts its economic reputation at stakeThe A-list / FT
Credibility is seeping away from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The minutes released last week revealed fundamental differences of view at best and muddle at worst within the committee. They showed that three of the nine votes cast were in favour of a change in policy.

The Meaning of Moody's Downgrade of the UK: NothingMarc to Market

UNITED STATES
The US: Self-inflicted pain – how badly will the cuts hurt?Nordea
Absent any last-minute agreements in Washington DC, across-the-board federal spending cuts will hit the US economy starting 1 March, when the so-called sequester will begin taking effect with USD 1.2trn in cuts over the next decade.

The Other Sequestration That No One Is Talking AboutZH

Is the US facing a housing shortage?Sober Look

FED
The Fed to face challenges as it ultimately exits the unprecedented monetary expansionSober Look

S.F. Fed’s Williams: Fed Should Continue Aggressive Efforts to Help Economy
Boston Fed’s Rosengren: Benefits of Fed Bond-Buying Outweigh Potential Risks
SF Fed’s Williams: Concerns About Future Shouldn’t Stop Fed From Aggressive Action Now
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard: Fed’s ‘Easy’ Policy To Stay For A ‘Long Time’
DJ Fed’s Rosengren: Higher Large Bank Capital Standards May Be Needed

ASIA
Yen Plunges As Uber-Dove Kuroda Set To Head Bank Of JapanZH

China HSBC PMI Misses, Prints At Four Month LowZH
HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMIMarkit (pdf)

OTHER
FX Comment: And the loser is…Nordea
Where things almost couldn't get worse, it did for GBP. Only "risk on" striking back and dovish Bernanke can save the day.

Chart Of The Day: Risk On TradeShort Side of the Long
Risk On trade is not completely correlated as many think

Stress Indicators: still risk on...barely, but cracks are showingTradingFloor

IN FINNISH
Suomalainen Twitter on pilkottu palasiksi - tarkkoja lukuja julki ensimmäistä kertaaYLE
Mikroblogipalvelu Twitterin käytöstä Suomessa on julkaistu tänään harvinaisen tarkkaa uutta tietoa. Finnish Twitter Census -sivusto paljastaa, että Twitterissä on noin 63 000 suomenkielellä twiittaavaa. Sivulla oleva visualisointi kertoo myös, että suomalainen Twitter-yhteisö on jakautunut noin seitsemään erilaiseen alajoukkoon.

Viru-hotelli oli suomalainen Troijan hevonenYLE
Tallinnassa vuonna 1972 avattu Viru-hotelli oli pitkään neuvostovirolaisten ikkuna länteen. Dokumenttielokuva Viru - tarinoita hotellista tulee elokuvateattereihin maaliskuun alussa.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/viru-hotelli_oli_suomalainen_troijan_hevonen/6481432

Eksynyt EUHenri Myllyniemi / piksu

Kukaan ei voi tarkkaan sanoa, onko EU ja euro ollut Suomelle hyödyllinen vai eiToimi Kankaanniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Sanna Ukkola: Jyrki, astu esiin!YLE
Pääministeri Jyrki Kataisen tapa hoitaa vaikeita tilanteita on vaikeneminen. Kriisitilanteissa Katainen lymyilee ministereidensä selän takana kuin kokoomuksen mainoksissa esiintyvä, päänsä hiekkaan piilottava strutsi, kirjoittaa Sanna Ukkola.

Miksi Saksa ei anna Euroalueen toipua – miksi antaisi koska kaikkihan menee Saksan kannalta kuten pitääkintyhmyri