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Tuesday, February 19

19th Feb - EU Open

Drivers ahead: February Markit PMI's on Thursday, German IFO on Friday. Then it will be the elections in Cyprus (no market surprises) and Italy (surprises possible).

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: DE ZEW, CN Wholesale Trade, US NAHB HMITradingFloor
A modest improvement in the mood among analysts is expected in today’s ZEW report for Germany, followed by what’s likely to be a relatively weak wholesale trade report for Canada and a slight gain for the NAHB Housing Market Index in the US.

Market Preview: EU and German ZEW sentiment indices in spotlightTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open marginally higher Tuesday. Today, investors will keenly watch Eurozone and German ZEW survey sentiment indices which are expected to show an improvement in February.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
JPY strengthens as finance minister rules out foreign bond buying. European periphery spreads wider on nervousness ahead of Italian election. We expect the German ZEW and the US NAHB index to surprise on the upside today.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Spekulaatiot BoJ:n uudesta puheenjohtajasta kiihtyvät * EKP:n edustajat rauhoittelivat valuuttasotahuolia * Varovaisuus nosti päätään riskimarkkinoilla

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


Germany's central bank is extreme, but not crazyReuters
Hugo Dixon: In a world where it is increasingly fashionable to call for central banks to print money, the Bundesbank is one of the last bastions of orthodoxy, and a useful antidote to the theory that easy money is a cost-free cure to economic ills.

Merkel Cites East German Lessons for EU’s Problem StatesBB
Chancellor Angela Merkel said that European countries burdened by the fallout of the euro-area debt crisis can learn from East Germany’s experiences of economic overhaul after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Greater China Macro Forecast — Back on track, but slowerHandelsbanken (pdf)
Structural challenges ahead * Growth recovery to be followed by new slowdown * Hong Kong, Taiwan follow the mainland

Japan government delays Bank of Japan appointment; talk of frictionReuters
Delayed by a week, fanning talk of friction between the prime minister and the finance minister over who should run a central bank charged with taking bold action to reignite the economy.

Viikkokatsaus: “Luottamusmittarit nousussa?”Nordea (pdf)
Ruotsin keskuspankki yllätti * Euroalueen BKT surkeassa jamassa * Toisen LTRO:n takaisinmaksut pienemmät kuin ensimmäisen * Italian vaalit kasvattavat hermostuneisuutta

The Week AheadHandelsbanken (pdf)
US: Core CPI will likely increase by 0.2 percent in January. Housing market activity will probably continue to pick up. Sweden: Forecast clear drop in January consumer prices, upward rebound for January unemployment and further recovery forecast to economic confidence. Norway: No major items. EMU: PMI Composite likely to decrease to 48.0 in February. PMI Service likely to decrease to 47.8 in February. China: Rising property prices adds pressure to cool market.