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Wednesday, February 27

27th Feb - US Close

Italian election-articles in the (again) updated Special. I will probably wind down the post now, and just include the Italy-related links in my usual posts.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: GDP, Jobless Claims, Sears Earnings – WSJ
Europe: Limps Higher After Italy Auctions Debt At Four-Month High Yields – ZH
US: Surge On Endless Easy Money Promises As Italy Is Long Forgotten – ZH
Morning Briefing (Asia): Serenity – BNY Mellon

The policy and the role of the European Central Bank during the crisis in the euro areaECB
Speech Mario Draghi

A guide to the EU bank bonus dealBrussels Blog / FT
The EU clampdown on bankers’ bonuses is nigh. The final talks (or so diplomats hope) have begun and the room is booked until midnight.

A Taxpayer Revolt Against Bank Bailouts In the EurozoneTestosterone Pit
Bank bailouts in the Eurozone, like bank bailouts elsewhere, have made owners of otherwise worthless bank debt whole through a circuitous process where, in the end, taxpayers transferred their money to investors.

A Century Of French And Italian Economic DeclineZH
Michael Cembalest, CIO JPMorgan: Why being underweight European equities has been the gift that keeps on giving

French consumer recession is likely driven by job lossesSober Look

Italy economic overview – graphic of the dayThomson Reuters

Italian elections – what’s next?Danske Bank (pdf)

Economic fact book: ItalyDanske Bank (pdf)

Can a possible government shutdown save us from the sequester?Wonkblog / WP

Has The Nasdaq Topped Out?Short Side of the Long

The mighty dollar?Buttonwood / The Economist
George Magnus, a shrewd veteran strategist at UBS, has a new (privately-circulated) research note with the title "A third US dollar bull market 2008-15?"

Just what we need: A stressed consumerHumble Student
Just as the market has to worry about Italy and the prospect of sequestration, I am seeing signs that the consumer is becoming increasingly stressed and consumer spending is slowing.

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the CongressBIS (pdf)
The sequester could make it harder to reduce the deficit, not easierWonkblog / WP
Why Rates Might RisePragCap

A Mixed Bag For January – The Capital Spectator
"Split Decision" Points To Uncertain Economy – ZH
January orders fell 5.2 pct – Reuters
U.S. business spending plans gauge hits one-year high – Reuters
Orders Gain Shows U.S. Companies Plan to Grow – BB

Rational TemperanceBill Gross / PIMCO
Chairman Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech in 1996 posed an excellent question, and history provided the answer. Fed Governor Jeremy Stein asks the same question in 2013 with a uni-dimensional but useful model. Stein’s paper, accompanied by correlations from Bianco Research, suggests caution in today’s high yield market. High yield bonds, stock prices and other risk spreads move in relative tandem. PIMCO cautions “rational temperance”: be bullish if you want, but lower return expectations on all asset classes.

Sell currencies of serial QE offendersBill Gross / FT
Fighting central banks is dangerous

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