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Tuesday, February 19

19th Feb - US Open

Recession and threat of deflation. Let’s just repeat the past and demand the impossible (WWI-war reparations then vs. untenable sovereign and private debt now), keep the exchange rate fixed (gold then vs. euro now), let’s not believe what economists are saying (Keynes then vs. everybody, including the IMF now), let’s not admit any mistakes and just observe while attitudes and values change to the extreme.

Then we can collectively wonder how it happened again and why we didn’t learn our lessons from the previous episodes. The only thing that I am not sure about is will the next guy have moustache, beard or be clean-shaven, and will he land in Brussels or in some of the nation states.

This is too easy to interpret. Just like the ending of the ‘Matrix’, you don’t even have to look – you know where the kicks and punches will be coming from.

Jesus, John Lennon, Stephen Hawking and Chuck Norris working together  would not be able to keep the European monetary union flying. The European Union and especially the euro are from the point of game theory assured failures.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: German Hope Soars To Three Year High – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: For Stocks, Slowing Mo – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
The Dollar's Five Keys in the Week Ahead – Marc to Market
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Crazy World – BNY Mellon
  Final thoughts (for now) on the G20 and related issues

Euro zone bank crisis funding fallsReuters
German banks' use of European Central Bank crisis funding dropped by a third in January from the previous month, a further sign that banks in the heart of the euro zone are returning to money markets after last year's credit squeeze.

Just a third of Britons want to stay in European Union: pollReuters
Only a third of Britons would vote to stay in the European Union in a proposed referendum, a poll showed on Monday, underlining the scale of Prime Minister David Cameron's task in persuading voters to back his flagship EU policy.

French finance minister plays down impact of any fiscal goal delayReuters
France will await European Commission growth forecasts this week before deciding whether to adjust its 2013 fiscal plans, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said on Monday, playing down the impact of any delay to its deficit-cutting plans.

Cyprus: new face, much the same problemalphaville / FT
As JP Morgan’s Alex White argues, Cyprus’ real problems lie in Berlin (and elsewhere in the European north). While a change of Government in Nicosia removes a near-term excuse for German inaction, it is unlikely to trigger an immediate resolution of the problem.

Italian elections - Goodbye to reforms?Danske Bank (pdf)

Berlusconi will drive Italy into bailout, bank sayseuobserver
Berlusconi's possible comeback would drive up Italy's borrowing costs and offer the "perfect excuse" to apply for a bailout, Italy's largest investment bank has warned.

The Italian centre-left is stalling in the campaign, but (probably) not in the electioneuropp / LSE

Time to buy gold and commodity stocks? Humble Student

Stocks and Commodities UpdateShort Side of the Long

Not so fastNordea
Regulators have been forced to backtrack on many of their most ambitious reforms lately, due to fears that big reforms could really hit the markets and the real economy very negatively.

Martin Zweig, Stock Author Who Predicted ’87 Market Crash, DiesBB

Inflaatio hidastui tammikuussa 1,6 prosenttiinTilastokeskus

Varastojen arvo teollisuudessa 2012 Q4 laski vuoden takaisestaTilastokeskus

Puheeni London School of EconomicsissaTimo Soini