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Sunday, February 24

24th Feb - Special: Italian Elections

Here are some article links from my past posts. I will add new content to this before, during and after the elections. From oldest to latest. Latest update 27-Feb 20:30 GMT

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Weekender: Off-Topic
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly market reviews and previews)

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  Charts from the day before elections:
CDS on Italian Government Bond

Italian 2-year government bond yield

Italian 10-year government bond yield
FTSE MIB Italian stock index
10-year government bond yield spread (Italy - Germany)

Source: Termometro Politico

Yksittäisten puolueiden kannatuksen tuijottaminen on moka:oleellista on katsoa vaaliliittoja, jotka ennustanevat paremmin sitä, minkälaisen ja kuinka toimintakykyisen hallituksen maa saa. Toisekseen: johtuen italialaisista omituisuuksista, oleellista ei välttämättä ole puolueiden äänimäärällinen kannatus, vaan alueelliset kannatusluvut. Alueelliset luvut julkaistaan vasta myöhään maanantai-iltana.

Keskeiset porukat
1) Italia Bene Commune, eli Yhteinen Hyvä, on keskusta-vasemmistolainen liittouma, jonka nokkamies on Bersani. Kuvassa punainen. Kannatus kääntyi vuodenvaihteessa laskuun, oli ennakkosuosikki.

2) Berlusconin porukka, kuvassa sininen. Kakkossijalla, mutta on noussut hyvin.

3) Montin porukka ja
4) Koomikon vetämä Viisi Tähteä-porukka ovat käytännössä tasoissa. Tosin viimeisten tietojen mukaan Viisi Tähteä olisi noussut rajusti.

Jos kuvaa katsoo, trendit ovat mielenkiintoiset. Mielipidekyselyitä ei saa tehdä vaalien alla, mutta ihan olemassaolevia käyriä ekstrapoloimalla voidaan arvata, että 1) ja 2) ovat käytännössä tasoissa.

Lisäksi Berlu on nostanut kierroksia, lähettänyt mm. lupauksia maksaa takaisin jo perittyjä veroja jne. jos hänet valitaan.

Oma fiilis on, että 30% Berlu voittaa, mutta sekä Monti ja Viisi Tähteä eivät suostuisi yhteistyöhön. Tuskin Bersanin porukkakaan.

70%, että Bersanin jengi voittaa. Eivät saa riittävää enemmistöä, jolloin joutuvat kaveeraamaan joko Montin tai Viiden Tähden kanssa. Koska Viisi Tähteä vastustaa euroa ja korruptiota, Bersanin alkuperäinen + Monti siten, että Bersanin alkuperäisestä liitosta poistuu joitain eurokyösteilyä vastustavia on todennäköisin vaihtoehto.

First numbers out:

Center-Left 34.5% (Bersani)
Center-Right 29% (Berlusconi)
Grillo 19%
Monti 9.5%

AFTERNOON: Looks like it will be Bersani's center-left, + Monti. This had already been discounted by the markets, so EURUSD in for a dip now. Always: buy the rumor, sell the news.

EVENING: With 80 percent of the votes counted in Italy's parliamentary elections, Berlusconi has 127 seats against Bersani's 111. This would make it impossible for either of them to rule without the support of the bigger winner - the comedian Grillo.

Live: Italian electionsThe World / FT

Italy's election LiveReuters

Rai 1 Italian television channelfilmontv

Italian election results: an interactive guideThe Guardian

Interactive poll charts and data tables Termometro Politico

Steen Jakobsen: Rumor: Latest unofficial poll --- Bersani (32%) - Berlusconi(30%), Grillo(18%), Monti(10%), out of London…….if true it could be nasty weekend – TradingFloor

Election 2013 page on Wikipedia

Italian Austerity in the PollsEconoMonitor 
After four years since the beginning of the world Great Recession, and one year of the Monti-Merkel “austerity” therapy, Italy goes to the general elections. Here is an account of what happened, what has been done and with what results.

Bank Of Italy Caught Lying About Imploding Monte PaschiZH

Silvio Berlusconi’s broken tax promisesData / FT 
Italians face among the highest tax burdens in the OECD countries combined with high energy prices and public services. It’s little surprise that promises to alleviate the amount of money taken from Italians for public services that are not always provided have a strong appeal to the electorate. But Berlusconi has failed to keep his tax promises so far, and there are no reasons to think it will be different this time.

Italy: foreign policy and the electionThe World / FT

Italy’s Bersani Urges Pragmatic Push to Closer EU UnionWSJ 
Pier Luigi Bersani, who according to opinion polls could be Italy's next prime minister, went to Berlin Tuesday to call for closer European integration, saying that "[budget] realism too often defeats common sense" in the region's negotiations about its own future.

Italian Bond Yields Spike To 6 Week Highs On Surge In Monte Paschi Loss ExpectationsZH

The Two Scariest Words In Europe: "Silvio Berlusconi"ZH

Monte: oopsalphaville / FT 
World’s oldest bank puts out a late-night statement confirming “the presence of errors” in three structured transactions.

(audio) The most important Italian election for 30 years?The World / FT

Some argue that the elections to be held in Italy are the most important for that country in three decades, since the fate of the euro could be at stake.

An Italian "Hung Parliament" - Europe's Biggest Political RiskZH

Is Italy’s economic crisis fuelling euroscepticism?The World / FT

How A Previously Secret Collateral Transformation With The Bank Of Italy Prevented Monte Paschi's NationalizationZH

Berlusconi Ally May Seek Local Currency for Use Alongside EuroBB

Silvio Berlusconi’sbiggest political ally in the campaign for Italian parliamentary elections said he may support a plan to create a local currency that could be used alongside the euro in the region of Lombardy.

ECB’s Visco Says Some Italian Lenders Still Need More CapitalBB

Italy is mired in its fourth recession since 2001 as Prime Minster Mario Monti’s policies to contain the budget deficit curb domestic demand. Unemployment was at the highest in more than 13 years in December and consumer confidence fell in January to the lowest level since at least 1996.

Italian elections – what if Berlusconi wins?Nordea (pdf)

Italian general elections, due 24-25 February, are nearing and hence we take the opportunity to sum up our views and add a scenario, where Berlusconi unexpectedly wins the lower house. The election is most likely to produce a favorable outcome in the sense that a reform-minded government can be formed. However, from a market point of view, risks are clearly skewed towards a negative surprise and hence this note will focus on what could go wrong and how markets will react before and after the elections. (summary)

Euro-Skeptic Grillo Pushes for Italy Debt RenegotiationBB

Beppe Grillo, the Italian comic poised to play a spoiler in this month’s national elections, is gaining ground in opinion polls as he campaigns for sovereign debt relief to revive the country’s stagnant economy…Support for Grillo’s party rose to 18.8 percent in a Feb. 8 SWG Institute poll from 15.9 percent in a Jan 11 survey. That compares with a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 33.8 percent for Bersani and gains of 2.5 percentage points for Berlusconi over the same period.

Italy’s Taxing ElectionProject Syndicate

Given the economic and political tumult roiling not only Italy, but the eurozone as a whole, the outcome of Italy's election will have a far-reaching impact. Just what that impact will be, however, is impossible to predict – that is, unless Silvio Berlusconi returns to power, in which case the consequences will be all too clear.

In the 2013 Italian elections the centre-left coalition is almost certain to win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but is very unlikely to win a majority in the Senateeuropp / LSE

Italian Polls Don’t Point at a Strong Majority for Next GovernmentWSJ

Ten days to the Italian vote and polls experts are still clueless about the outcome of the election. Except for one thing: In a year or two, Italians could be called to cast their vote again

Monte Paschi former finance chief held in ItalyReuters

Italian police arrested on Thursday the former head of Monte dei Paschi's finance department, who is at the center of a probe into alleged fraud and bribery at Italy's third largest bank, prosecutors said.

Point Counterpoint in the Italian CampaignA Fistful of Euros

What is playing out is a classic competition between management strategies, as Vendola advocates for activist stimulus and Monti calls on Italians to tighten their belts for one more round. Bersani meanwhile tries to walk a fine line he calls “austerity with justice,” whatever that turns out to mean. But as Hollande waffles along the same line, and Merkel prepares to defend her mercantilist fundamentalism this fall, Italy–for all its woes, still the Eurozone’s 3rd biggest economy–will be helping to arbitrate the larger EU’s path through this intractable crisis.

Italian elections could bring uncertainty back to the eurozoneOpen Europe

Italian elections - Goodbye to reforms?Danske Bank (pdf)

Berlusconi will drive Italy into bailout, bank sayseuobserver

Berlusconi's possible comeback would drive up Italy's borrowing costs and offer the "perfect excuse" to apply for a bailout, Italy's largest investment bank has warned.

The Italian centre-left is stalling in the campaign, but (probably) not in the electioneuropp / LSE

Italy Vote Nears, Spurring Noise and a Tinge of PanicWSJ

Italy’s election campaign has become more and more combative just as it’s increasingly likely that no simple majority will be formed, requiring post-electoral coalition forging.

Italian Elections: Rounding the Last Pole Fistful of Euros

What might have been a sustained debate on the merits of austerity measures in a prolonged recession, on the future of Italian employment and its welfare state or a host of other pressing issues, has instead taken on the quality of an unsavory burlesque revue.

In the Picture: the subversive appeal of Beppe GrilloThe World / FT

Final opinion polls published ahead of the February 24-25 election showed his Five Star Movement in third position with 13-16% of the vote – ahead of Monti’s Civic Choice and only a few points behind Berlusconi’s People of Liberty. So how did he get there? And what does he really believe in?

Italy’s Politicians Face the Pinocchio TestWSJ

With just days to go before Italians head to the polling booths, it’s time to review how the main candidates's claims stack up.

Whoever wins this week’s Italian elections, it is unlikely that they will put an end to the ‘telecracy’ begun by Silvio Berlusconi.europp / LSE

Italy risks split Senate after election – graphic of the dayThomson Reuters

Italy is governed by two houses with equal lawmaking power. The Chamber of Deputies is controlled by whichever group gets the majority nationally. The Senate is decided by region, with 55% of each region’s seats awarded to the biggest party there. In four large regions, the battle between center-left and center-right coalitions is too close to call.

Italy's North-South Divide, And Lombardia's Starring Role In The ElectionsZH

Italy's recession and upcoming elections threaten reformsSober Look

Italian Elections: Uncertainty to LingerMarc to Market

European "Democracy": EU Parliament Head Tells Italians Not To Vote For SilvioZH

Italian ElectionsGlobal Macro Monitor

Italy election: Why voters back Berlusconi, no matter whatBBC

To many in the outside world, Silvio Berlusconi is the clown prince of politics - better known for his bunga-bunga parties, outrageous comments and courtroom battles than for any obvious political nous.

Evidence from Italy shows that electoral reforms can often have the opposite effect of what is intendedeuropp / LSE

Italian elections re-open risk of EU crisiseuobserver

Italian voters are heading to the polls on Sunday and Monday in a closely-watched race that could bring the country to the brink of a bailout.

Italy’s election: When cynics ruleThe Economist

Your Complete, 10-Step Italian Election GuideZH

Italy election: Why voters back Berlusconi, no matter whatBBC

To many in the outside world, Silvio Berlusconi is the clown prince of politics - better known for his bunga-bunga parties, outrageous comments and courtroom battles than for any obvious political nous.

Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recoveryBBC

Italians have begun voting in general elections seen as crucial for the country's effort to tackle its economic problems, as well as for the eurozone.

Q&A: Italian electionBBC

Italians go to the polls on 24-25 February to vote in an early general election, which could determine whether Italy starts on its economic recovery, or drags Europe back into crisis.

Europe waits for Italy electionsBBC

There was a time when Italian elections were frequent and forgettable. Prime ministers were discarded like last season's clothes.

Italian Notes Slide Before Election; Bunds Gain on Haven DemandBB

Italian notes dropped for the fifth week in six weeks amid speculation parliamentary elections will result in a hung parliament, derailing economic reforms in Europe’s biggest debt market.

Italians Vote With Berlusconi Challenging Monti AusterityBB

Italians vote today for the first time since Europe’s financial crisis ushered in unelected leaders who imposed an austerity regime to stem the turmoil. The first estimates are due Monday shortly after 3 p.m. in Rome, when the second day of balloting ends.

Italians vote in crucial election for euro zoneReuters

Italians began voting on Sunday in one of the most closely watched elections in years, with markets nervous about whether it can produce a strong government to pull Italy out of recession and help resolve the euro zone debt crisis.

Italian election: Is this the final curtain for Silvio Berlusconi?The Telegraph

Silvio Berlusconi has set out to recapture some of his old populist magic on the campaign trail. But as Harriet Alexander and Andrea Vogt write, the old showman has lost his sparkle.

Italian Election GuideWSJ

Italian voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET Monday, after which exit polls will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the election.


Italy awaits opening of general election polls amid uncertaintyThe Guardian
Likelihood of weak government and rise of populist former comedian add to apprehension as Italian campaigning ceases

Europe waits for ItalyMacrobusiness
The question is whether Italy will come out of the elections with a government with the strength to appease the rest of Europe, yet wear the burden of the political fall-out to defend those policies domestically, while somehow finding economic growth. It is a huge ask, and even if the election outcome is one of the less politically risky outcomes the threat of further instability cannot be ruled out over 2013.

Protest votes raise uncertainty in close Italy electionReuters
Polls in Italy opened for the second and final day of voting on Monday, with a surge in protest votes increasing fears of an unclear outcome that could hamper economic reforms.

Monti Braces for Popular Test of Investor-Backed AusterityBB
Mario Monti, the university president appointed to run Italy at the height of Europe’s financial crisis 15 months ago, gets his final grade from voters today. He already won a stamp of approval from investors.

Italy election: 5 ways to prep for the resultThe World / FT

Italy votes in election seen as key for economic recoveryBBC
Polls have opened for a second and final day in Italy's general election - a vote seen as crucial for efforts to tackle the country's economic problems, as well as for the eurozone.

Italian Bond Yields Erase Gain Before Initial Election EstimateBB
Italy’s bonds rose for a second day amid speculation the winner of the nation’s parliamentary election will maintain austerity measures imposed to stem financial turmoil in the euro area’s third-largest economy.

Bersani Headed for Election Win Over Berlusconi, Poll ShowsBB
Pier Luigi Bersani, the ex-communist who campaigned to maintain budget rigor, is on track to win Italy’s first election since Europe’s financial crisis broke out

Centre left takes strong lead in Italy election: pollsReuters
The centre left is strongly leading in Italy's election, raising the chances of a stable pro-reform government in the euro zone's third largest economy, according to two telephone polls published after voting ended.

Market Kneejerk Reaction To Italian Exit PollsZH

Italy's election: disaster avoided, but there's trouble aheadTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: While the disaster of Berlusconi's win was avoided, Bersani's government will probably fail in reform implementation.

First impression: could have come much worseNordea

Don't Count Bunga Out Just Yet - Berlusconi Now Has Senate Lead Over BersaniZH

Stable Italy shocker hopes dashed!alphaville / FT

Real Time Italian Election Data and Projections; TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy SenateMish’s

Italy’s Election Gets Murky: Markets Reverse CourseWSJ

Mario Monti, Paul Krugman and Italian austerityThe World / FT

Early projections point to Brussels’ and Berlin’s worst nightmareOpen Europe

From Hung Parliament To BTP Sell Off: JPM Says To Expect A 40-100 Bps Rise In Italian Bond YieldsZH

Italy election forecasts point to political gridlockReuters
Conflicting early forecasts of the result of Italy's election on Monday raised the specter of deadlock in parliament that could paralyze a new government and re-ignite the euro zone crisis.

Italy Projections Show Hung Parliament on BerlusconiBB
Italy may require another vote after partial election results suggested the four-way race may end in a divided parliament, an aide to Democratic Party candidate Pier Luigi Bersani said.

Italy markets take fright at complex election resultsReuters
Italian shares and bonds lost earlier gains after election projections showed former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's conservative bloc leading in the Senate, contradicting initial exit polls and raising the specter of deadlock in parliament.

Huge protest vote pushes Italy towards deadlockReuters
A huge protest vote by Italians enraged by economic hardship and political corruption pushed the country towards deadlock after an election on Monday, with voting projections showing no coalition strong enough to form a government.

Everything you need to know about Italy's messed-up electionsWonkblog / WP

Italy Senate "Ungovernable"; No Coalition PossibleMish’s

Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock Market Futures Plunge 3.5% - Mish’s

Meet The Biggest Winner From Today's Italian ElectionsZH


Italian elections without a winnerDanske Bank (pdf)
The election results show that Bersani has won the lower house but no coalition will be able to form a majority in the senate. In this unfortunate situation, the Italian president can install an interim government. Election laws may then be revised and new elections will be held. The first real test of investor confidence will come tomorrow when Italy auctions as much as EUR6.5bn in five- and 10-year bonds. 

Italian Senate electoral rulesalphaville / FT

Italy in turmoil after election delivers hung parliamenteuobserver
Firebrand comedian, Beppe Grillo, holding the balance of power.

Counterparties: Italy’s protest voteFelix Salmon / Reuters

'Lost Generation' Feels Italy's Fiscal SqueezeWSJ
Forty-Somethings Pay Price of Austerity in Higher Taxes, but Will Reap Lower Pension Benefits

Europe back in focus as Italy braces for a deadlocked parliamentSober Look

Citi: "This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"ZH

Italian election media reaction – An ungovernable ‘pig’s mess’The World / FT

Hung parliament potentially in playMarketWatch
Hopes for a clear-cut outcome in Italy’s parliamentary elections on Monday gave way to fears that a strong showing by Silvio Berlusconi and his center-right allies could trigger a fresh round of political instability.

Italian politics in a dead end – any way out?Nordea
The one thing that seems clear after the Italian election is that nothing is clear at all and uncertainty will linger on. As Bersani put it: Italy is in "a very delicate situation."

Live Blog: Europe Markets React to Italy VoteWSJ

Bond Market Balks at Italian Election ResultsWSJ
"Welcome back to the euro-zone crisis," said Citigroup in a note to its clients early Tuesday, and it's easy to see why.

Italian post-election miseryalphaville / FT
In terms of providing certainty, it’s hard to see how the Italian election outcome could have been worse.

Investors spooked as Italy faces political stalemateReuters
The Italian stock market fell and state borrowing costs rose as investors took fright at political deadlock after a stunning election that saw a protest party lead the poll and no group had a clear majority in parliament.

Comic Grillo stuns Italy with astonishing election showingReuters
The outcome of Italy's national election is still uncertain but what is already clear is that the massive winner is Beppe Grillo, a shaggy haired comedian whose anti-establishment 5-Star movement could well become the country's largest party.

Italy Renews Market Concerns as Voters Reject MontiBB
Italy’s inconclusive election triggered renewed market convulsions over Europe’s debt crisis as recession-scarred voters repudiated budget rigor and established former comedian Beppe Grillo as a political force.

Berlusconi Calls for Recount After Refusing to Concede DefeatBB
Berlusconi and his allies trailed the Democratic Party-led coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani by less than half a percentage point, a margin of fewer than 150,000 votes, with more more than 1 million votes still to be counted at 12:45 a.m.

A comedian-cum-politician wins twice as many seats as the 'Brussels candidate'Open Europe

Italian elections aftermathThe World / FT

Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement On Verge of Being Largest Political Party in Italy; Italy Stock Market Futures Plunge 3.5% - Mish’s

Meet The Biggest Winner From Today's Italian ElectionsZH

(audio) BizDaily: Italian electionBBC (mp3)
Italy's election ends in what looks like deadlock. With no clear winner, the world's financial markets have reacted with alarm. What will it mean for Italy's efforts to escape from its worst recession in decades? And could this spur a new crisis in the eurozone? The Italian job - and who's going to do it.

The Italian JobMarc to Market
There are broad and narrow implications of the election.  Some will see the majority vote for the parties that want to leave EMU as the beginning of the end, sparking a new phase of the financial crisis.  Austerity has so weakened the social fabric that it has eroded the political center.  A political crisis is more immune to ECB action and the OMT than a private capital strike.  However, it may be jumping hastily to a conclusion that all who voted for the center-right and Grillo did so to express a desire to leave EMU. 

Italian JobMacro Man
Is Italy important?  It's certainly a wake up call rumble from the dormant Euro-volcano but we do think that Italy is going to drag Euro back to 2012. If the interface of Euro contagion is based on Italy's commitment to Europe combined with the management of debt load via internal economic management or European support then perhaps we should break it down.

In Aftermath Of Italy Vote, JPM Says To Short BTPs With 5% Target "In The Coming Days"ZH

Above the noise: Classic overreaction to the Italian electionTradingFloor
There is absolutely nothing with the current information on hand that bodes for uncertainty surrounding the Euro area, nor Italy's economic life one year ahead.

Send In The Clowns (European Elections Edition)WSJ
As protest votes go, Bepe Grillo takes the cream pie. And smashes it into the face of the political establishment

Italy Puts Euro’s Future Even More at RiskWSJ
The euro-zone crisis has just entered what could be its final and most dangerous phase -

Italy Has Voted to End Madness, Says Leading AcademicWSJ
Investors should rejoice at Italy’s election, because the powerful anti-austerity vote stands to put all of Europe on a more growth-oriented path that is far better than the capital-destroying path it has been on in recent years. That’s the view of Gustavo Piga, an economics professor in Rome, and author of a landmark study into the use of derivatives by sovereign governments.

Italy: And the winner is... Beppe GrilloLa Stampa / presseurop
By bringing together the many Italians disillusioned by old-style politics, former comedian Beppe Grillo has robbed the coalition of the left, under Pieluigi Bersani, of what was looking like certain victory. Italy will now have to reckon with a new player who is as indispensable as he is unpredictable

If You Ask The Right Questions You Might Find The Right AnswersMark Grant / ZH
A referendum has just taken place in Italy. All of the political upheaval in Italy was caused by anger and frustration with the European Union and their policies. This is what drove the election and not to appreciate this is a serious mistake. The EU is now cornered.

Above the noise: Classic overreaction to the Italian electionTradingFloor
There is absolutely nothing with the current information on hand that bodes for uncertainty surrounding the Euro area, nor Italy's economic life one year ahead.

Beppe Grillo’s success in the Italian elections shows that austerity is now becoming politically unsustainableeuropp / LSE
Following the weekend’s elections, Italy now appears to be facing a hung parliament, with a centre-left majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a fragmented Senate. The real winner has been Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star Movement, which gained 25 per cent of the vote. The movement’s success illustrates that austerity is now becoming politically unsustainable within the country.

Nervous Brussels urges Italy to stick to austerityeuobserver
The EU commission has urged any future government in Italy to stick to deficit-cutting measures, despite the fact that over half of the electorate voted for anti-austerity parties.

How will Mario Draghi react to the Italian elections?Wonkblog / WP
Last fall, the euro zone settled on a relatively straightforward arrangement to quell its crisis. Individual nations would agree to cut down their deficits through years of grinding austerity. In return, the ECB would use its power to prevent a panic-inducing run on the bond markets. Now that deal’s being threatened.

Italy: ‘A serious warning to Europepresseurop
Roundup of European editorials

Italian Bond Yields Bring Back Bad MemoriesWSJ
Italy's political stalemate has sent government bond yields spiking, in an episode reminiscent of what transpired on a regular occurrence during the height of Europe's debt crisis over the last few years.

Monti may have tanked in Italy, but he did better among Italians living abroadThe World / FT

The end of the Third RepublicBebbe Grillo
They’ll be able to keep going for 7 or 8 months and they’ll produce a disaster but we’ll try and keep them under control.

Italy After the Vote: What Now?A Fistful of Euros
More than likely, this house of cards will collapse within weeks and Italians will be asked to vote once more. Who can guess what they will do then? Can the ECB and the Eurozone withstand this turbulence?

Italy shatters some comfortable eurozone assumptionsGavyn Davies / FT
The comfortable assumption, which until now has been held by the policy elite in the eurozone, and mostly in the financial markets, that in the end “sensible” democracies will always support conventional economic policies has been shattered.

Beppe Grillo: five classic one-linersalphaville / FT

Q&A — What Happens Now in ItalyWSJ

Three Failures and a SuccessWSJ
according to Bill Emmott, former editor of The Economist.

Italy’s Election Results Might Yield Progress on ReformPIIE
It is no surprise that the results of the Italian political election have unsettled the markets and stirred fears outside the country about the potentially damaging impact on Europe, the United States, and the global economy.

Italian Politics Put the Universal Put to the TestWSJ
The markets, battered by the uncertainty from the Italian elections, may find themselves in need of the Fed's unwavering support.

Analysis: It's about to get serious for Italy's triumphant comic Grillo Reuters
Beppe Grillo can allow himself a few days to bask in the afterglow of his triumph in Italy's election, but soon the comedian who now leads the country's largest party will face some tough political choices.

Italy faces stalemate after vote shockReuters
Italy faces political deadlock after a stunning election that saw the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement of comic Beppe Grillo become the strongest party in the country but left no group with a clear majority in parliament.

Investors fret that Italy may undermine ECB backstopReuters
Italy's fractious election results this week have raised investor suspicions that the euro zone's protracted debt crisis has reached a critical juncture.

Italy debt auction to show cost of political crisisReuters
Italy will pay the price for its latest political crisis with higher borrowing costs on Wednesday when it sells longer-dated bonds to investors worried about an inconclusive election.

ECB bond plan in jeopardy as Italy’s voters reject conditionsThe Telegraph

World From Berlin: Italy's 'Childlike Refusal to Acknowledge Reality'Spiegel
The Italian election, in which more than half of voters backed two comedians in the form of Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, shows Italians are unable or unwilling to grasp the depth of their economic plight, argue German media commentators. The ungovernable nation poses a major risk to the euro zone.

Germans and Eurocrats Throw Hissy Fits Over Italian Electionsnaked capitalism

Monti Was a Success Among Italian Voters AbroadWSJ
Beppe Grillo and Silvio Berlusconi may have been the big winners in Italy’s election, given that they outperformed expectations and prevented a clear victory for the center-left coalition, which polls had indicated was on course to victory. But Italians abroad had a different view.

Far from being a disaster, the results of the Italian election could be a turning point for Italy and the Eurozoneeuropp / LSE
The results of the Italian elections, in which the centre-left coalition won a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, but not in the Senate, have led to fears that the country could become ungovernable. Jonathan Hopkin takes issue with this perspective, arguing that the results could have a number of positive consequences for both Italy and the Eurozone. The failure of Mario Monti to secure a sizeable vote share, and the success of Beppe Grillo’s M5S movement, might spell the end for technocracy and austerity in Italy.

Bild ups the ante: Will Italy's political clowns destroy the euro?Open Europe

Did a Bersani-Grillo alliance just become a real possibility?Open Europe

And now for the warnings from around Europe - stay the course, or else...Open Europe

Italy economic overview – graphic of the dayThomson Reuters

Italian elections – what’s next? Danske Bank (pdf)

Economic fact book: ItalyDanske Bank (pdf)

Italy’s Perfect Political StormProject Syndicate
In the aftermath of Italy’s recently concluded election, no one knows who can and will govern the country. In fact, the best solution looks like an orderly one-year interregnum – marked by a couple of important reforms – and then a new vote in the spring of 2014.

An Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons Italians voted for GrilloCredit Writedowns
Her view speaks more to families’ and small business’ rejection of corporatism and corruption than austerity per se.

Italian auction offers respite for periphery debtReuters
Italian auction sees strong demand as yields rise * Post-election uncertainty seen keeping pressure on Italy * German debt gains as markets remain risk averse

Italy’s 10-Year Government Bonds Advance After AuctionBB
Italy’s government bonds rose, pushing 10-year yields down from the highest level in three months, after demand increased at the nation’s first debt auction since inconclusive election results.

Italy's political crisis deepens, Grillo refuses to support governmentReuters
An Italian political crisis that has rattled the euro zone deepened on Wednesday when two party leaders ruled out the most likely options to form a government and avoid a new election.

Italia vaaliuurnille, Lombardia ratkaisee tuloksen
Ratkaisevaa Italian vaaleissa on, mikä ryhmä saa parlamentin ylähuoneeseen eli senaattiin eniten edustajia vauraasta ja väkirikkaasta Lombardiasta. Italialaiset äänestävät senaatista sunnuntaina ja maanantaina.

Italia äänestää parlamentistaYLE
Vaalien voittajasuosikki on vasemmistojohtaja Pier-Luigi Bersanin puolue. Kovimmat haastajat ovat oikeistojohtaja Silvio Berlusconi ja Mario Monti, joka johtaa keskustakoalitiota.

Äänestys alkoi Italian parlamenttivaaleissaHS

Tausta: Kahden miehen kamppailuHS

Maailmanlopun tango Berlusconin kanssa – irstaita vihjailuja ja mahdottomia talouslupauksiaMTV3

Vain Italiassa: Mielipidemittauksia julkaistaan hevoskilpailutuloksinaMTV3
Italiassa kaikki säännöt on tehty kierrettäviksi. Myös kielto, jonka mukaan mielipidemittauksia ei saa tehdä eikä julkaista kaksi viikkoa ennen vaaleja.

Kysely: Berlusconi jäämässä toiseksi Italian vaaleissaYLE
Ovensuukyselyn mukaan parlamenttivaalien voittajaksi nousee keskustavasemmistolainen koalitio.

Ennusteet: Berlusconin liittouma voittamassa täpärän kisan Italian senaatistaYLE

Parlamentin alahuoneen hallinta on vaaleissa menossa Pier Luigi Bersanin keskustavasemmistolle. Jos ennuste toteutuu, Italian vaalit tuottavat jakautuneen parlamentin.