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Monday, February 18

18th Feb - US "Open": G20, Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Off-Topic (not markets-related!)
Weekender: The World (Europe, US, Asia)
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly briefings)
Weekender: Best of the Week (from my last week’s posts)

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Quiet Trading Day As The US Takes A Break – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Damned if you do …BNY Mellon
  An update on the dilemma facing the RBNZ

Basel III: Europe’s Interest Is to Complybruegel
On February 14, European Commissioner Michel Barnier and Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo indicated their agreement to quickly give the Basel III accord binding force over, respectively, European and American banks. This is welcome. But even more important than the exact timing of adoption is that it should stay true to what the accord actually stipulates. At this point, and contrary to many perceptions in Europe, this is likely to be the case of the US but not in the EU.

The voice of the EU commission has 'gone soft'euobserver
Former EU commission president Romano Prodi says EU decision-making has shifted out of Brussels to Berlin and Paris.

Euro area balance of paymentsECB
In December 2012 the seasonally adjusted current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €13.9 billion. In the financial account, combined direct and portfolio investment recorded net outflows of €21 billion (non-seasonally adjusted).

The Eurozone needs a grand political bargainre-define
All in all, if you look at the combination of the political, financial, economic and social factors, the Eurozone remains in deep trouble. The optimism in the markets is just not justified on the basis of these developments on the ground and in the real economy so cannot continue without further political action, more measures by the ECB and a long-overdue change in strategy.

Designing a federal
Do economists and policymakers know how to design a federal bank for Europe? Is there a template? This column explores the history of the US Federal Reserve, gleaning lessons for the future of the European banking system. Getting to grips with the historical and empirical details shows how different the two really are. Overall, evidence suggests that the mechanism of the TARGET system might well create demand for Europe to move further towards fiscal federalism.

Celebrating the end of the eurozone affair ignores the heart of the matterOpen Europe
In today's Telegraph, Mats Persson seeks to answer this simple - and yet brutally complex - question: is the eurozone crisis over?

Monday, I’ve Got Friday on My MindWSJ
A potentially toxic combination of economic data, bond sales and political events converging at the end of the week could damp market enthusiasm and keep investors firmly on the sidelines.

Has Spain’s Economic Contraction Now Become Self Perpetuating?Fistful of Euros
Chart Of The Day: Spanish DebtZH

Italian elections could bring uncertainty back to the eurozoneOpen Europe

Scoring The BoJ Governor CandidatesCiti / ZH
Japanese investors, the AUD and everyone elsealphaville / FT
Look at Australia; Japan plays a big role here in debt and in turn, in currency; and it’s a market that has been very attractive to foreigners of late, keeping the currency stubbornly high regardless of price changes in the country’s key exported commodities. BUT, as with everything yen at the moment, there is a serious shift going on.

G20 rebuffs France on euro exchange rate plan – euobserver
Leaders of the world's richest economies at a G20 summit in Moscow have vowed not to start a currency war by managing their exchange rates.

Toothless G20 allows fresh JPY weakning, but… - TradingFloor
John J Hardy: The G20 failed to produce any political hurdle for further JPY weakening for now, but there are plenty of other potential developments that could move the JPY either way in coming weeks.

Why the currency-war deniers are wrongThe A-list / FT
The leaders of the largest economies have tried to talk down the risk of a currency war. This will not necessarily be sufficient to avoid one. The reason is that there is no longer a shared view across leading industrial countries about the role monetary policy should play in the current environment.

G20 Communiqué TranslatedMacro Man

Suomi lähetti kirjeen – näin mieletön on ”EU-viidakko” yrityksen silminUS

Julkisen talouden kestävyystarkasteluja BoF Online 1/2013Suomen Pankki (pdf)
Suomen julkisen talouden velkakestävyys on heikentynyt finanssikriisin seurauksena. Kehysriihessä keväällä 2012 sovitut menojen leikkaukset ja verojen korotukset vähensivät tuntuvasti ylivelkaantumisen riskiä, mutta kriisin kärjistyminen uudelleen kesällä 2012 on synkentänyt jälleen julkisen talouden tilannetta. Myös huoli Suomen talouden rakenteellisesta heikkoudesta ja siten keskipitkällä aikavälin vaimeista kasvunäkymistä on korostunut. Tulevaa kehitystä varjostaa myös veropohjan haurastuminen: viime vuosien kasvua on pitänyt yllä kotitalouksien velkaantuminen, säästämisaste on alentunut voimakkaasti ja vaihtotase on muuttunut alijäämäiseksi.