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Friday, February 8

8th Feb - EU Open


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 Most excellent chart from Reuters. For ECB commentary, see last night's very long post. 
 

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: German & US trade balances, LTRO repaymentsTradingFloor
US December trade balance might drive the EURUSD, but in reality Thursday's central banking events will still be in the driver's seat.

Market Preview: focus on German and US trade balance dataTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open in the green Friday on the back of upbeat Chinese trade data released earlier today. Investors will keep an eye on German and US trade data scheduled later today for further hints.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Asian equity markets higher this morning on better-than-expected Chinese trade data. RBA lowers growth and inflation outlook in its quarterly statement on monetary policy.EUR/USD stabilised around 1.34 overnight after the big drop yesterday. Today: US trade balance

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
EKP:n koronlasku lähestyy * Kiinalainen uusivuosi vaikeuttaa Kiinan lukujen tulkintaa * Draghin kommentit painoivat euroa

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat

EUROPE
Irish bank debt deal breaks deposit tabooFistful of Euros

EU Budget: Schulz’s shenanigansBrussels blog / FT

(audio) The most important Italian election for 30 years?The World / FT
Some argue that the elections to be held in Italy are the most important for that country in three decades, since the fate of the euro could be at stake.

  ECB
ECB: Small steps towards verbal intervention for a weaker EURHandelsbanken
No new monetary measures from the ECB. Draghi was more explicit about the exchange rate than expected. Further appreciation of the EUR could prompt a cut in interest rates

Draghi optimistic but “monitoring closely”Nordea
Today’s news was by and large as expected. Draghi struck an optimistic tone, but was maybe slightly more concerned about the LTRO repayments and EUR strength than most had expected. Thus short rates are falling a bit and the EUR is weakening slightly.

UNITED STATES
Fed’s Stein Questioned on Pre-Crisis PolicyWSJ
Fed governor Jeremy Stein's comments on credit markets raise the question: Does he think the Fed should have raised interest rates to head off the 2008 financial crisis?

The Fed Gets a Bubble CopDealBook / NYT
In a speech on Thursday, Federal Reserve governor Jeremy C. Stein, who joined last year, focused on parts of the financial markets that show signs of overheating.

Where The Consensus Is... WrongZH
Via Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg

ASIA
Inflation falls as expected, exports and imports rise more than expectedHandelsbanken

Will Japan's "Attempted" Reflation Succeed? Full-Fledged Currency War?ZH
Bienville Capital full presentation and summary

OTHER
Global Alpha Weekly: Distinguish markets from CBsNordea (pdf)
FX: Italian election key risk for EURUSD * FI: Riksbank repo rate announcement next week * Thematic: Distinguish markets from CBs

IN FINNISH
EU alkaa valvoa nettikeskusteluaSampo Terho

Ilman ja vesistöjen saastuttaminen loppuu pian Suomestatyhmyri
– tosin samalla loppuvat työpaikat

  TILASTOKESKUS
Yrityssaneerauksien määrä edellisvuoden tasolla tammi – jouluk. 2012 – Tilastokeskus
Yksityishenkilöiden velkajärjestelyt lievässä kasvussa tammi – jouluk. 2012 – Tilastokeskus
Vuokrat nousivat 3,3% vuodessa – Tilastokeskus
Valtion menojen hintaindeksi nousi 2,6% ja kuntatalouden 2,0% Q42012 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto väheni joulukuussa 1,3% vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset vähenivät joulukuussa 11,9% vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Konkurssien määrä edellisvuoden tasolla tammi – jouluk. 2012 – Tilastokeskus

Finland: Exports down by 14 per centNordea (pdf)
Finnish goods exports volume decreased in December 14 per cent and the volume of goods imports 10.5 per cent from the year earlier. Trade balance showed a deficit of 735 million euro. The fall in foreign trade is fully explained by fewer working days (especially the timing of Christmas).

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