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Thursday, February 21

21st Feb - EU Open: EURUSD hit by Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: DE PMI flash, UK industrial orders, US PMITradingFloor
A gain is expected for today's flash update on the manufacturing component of the PMI Composite for Germany. Later, we'll see new survey data on the outlook for UK industrial orders and US manufacturing.

Market Preview: FOMC minutes disappoint; Manufacturing PMIs eyedTradingFloor
Disappointing FOMC minutes released yesterday are expected to weigh on European markets at Thursday's open. Investors will keep an eye on manufacturing PMI data across Europe and the US due today. Also, US CPI and jobless claims will be in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
FOMC disagree on open-ended quantitative easing * Risk sentiment declines: equities and commodities lower and US dollar higher * Focus today will be February flash PMIs for France, Germany, euro area and US

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Fed pelkää osto-ohjelman mahdollisia kustannuksia * Pattitilanne johtamassa automaattisiin menoleikkauksiin USA:ssa * EURUSD Fedin pöytäkirjojen myötä alimmilleen lähes kuukauteen

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)


Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its
Eurozone policy seems driven by market sentiment. This column argues that fear and panic led to excessive, and possibly self-defeating, austerity in the south while failing to induce offsetting stimulus in the north. The resulting deflation bias produced the double-dip recession and perhaps more dire consequences. As it becomes obvious that austerity produces unnecessary suffering, millions may seek liberation from ‘euro shackles’.

FOMC Minutes: Fear of quantitative easingTradingFloor
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s January meeting suggest that the it is preparing itself and the markets for decreasing asset purchases.

Fed's Commitment In QuestionTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The minutes suggest the Fed is wavering on their commitment to QE.  We should watch upcoming speeches for unequal weight in the benefits vs. costs discussion.  If the weight shifts increasingly toward costs, a change may be close at hand.
Growing opposition against further asset purchasesHandelsbanken

Prepared to slow down the asset purchases pace of USD 85bn a month * Concerns about the potential for excessive risk-taking * Do not expect long government bond yields to increase much this year

Maan johdolle tulossa henkivartiokaartityhmyri
Oaluu palkkasotilaiden ja yksityistetyn oikeuden aikaan

Säästöt uhkaavat kilpailukykyäRisto Pennanen / TalSa
Vyön kiristäminen syö kilpailukyvyn, jos uuden kehittäminen pysähtyy.

Liikanen: Pankeilla edessä rakennemuutosYLE
Pankkien sääntely kiristyy Euroopassa suurpankkien vastustuksesta huolimatta. Edessä on pankkien rakennemuutos, arvioi EU:n pankkirakennetyöryhmää vetävä Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen.