Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Europe: Bonds And Stocks Slide From Bernanke Opening
Exuberance – ZH
US: Bernanke Unleashes New Record Highs For Stocks – ZH
EUROPE
Europe’s
December Surprise? – Macro and
Markets
In each of these
cases, the argument has been made that concessions cannot be made to these
countries ahead of German elections in September (and a German constitutional court ruling on the ECB’s bond-purchase program). This of course creates expectations that
things will be much better for these countries after elections. There is talk
of a December European leader’s meeting being the forum for a “move towards
more Europe.”
Union Disunion: ECB to Begin Inspection of
Euro-Zone Banks – Spiegel
The European Central
Bank is set to begin inspecting the balance sheets of large EU financial
institutions, even as disagreement between Brussels and Berlin threatens the bloc's banking union plans.
Euro area house prices down by 2.2% – Eurostat
(pdf)
PIIGS
Portuguese President Re-Ignites
"Time-Bomb"; Threatens Early Elections – ZH
Portuguese Markets: Stay Cool or Panic? – WSJ
Greek Unemployment, Non-Performing Loans Soar
To Fresh Record Highs – ZH
UNITED STATES
Key Earnings Reports Next Week – Bespoke
Bank Earnings Season: Watching Interest Rates – WSJ
Fri: JPM, Wells Fargo
Mon: Citigroup Tue: Goldman Wed: BoA, Thu: MS
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Parsing Bernanke – Long
Short / FT
Bernanke Talks: A Conversation at the NBER – WSJ
Transcript of the
Wednesday’s Press Q&A
At-a-Glance: Reactions To Fed Chairman
Bernanke’s speech – WSJ
Analysis: Fed stops short of the clarity
global markets crave – Reuters
Bernanke now knows why
uncharted waters on mariners' charts used to be marked ‘Here be Dragons'.
JPM: Tapering Still Coming In September – ZH
In any event, unlike
tapering, tightening will likely be a choice for Bernanke's successor, so what
he says about the conditions for tightening are only indicative of the thinking
that may prevail at that time. Nothing in yesterday's remarks led us to question
our view that tapering in September is coming, conditional on the data
cooperating.
Gold markets have jumped the gun of Bernanke
climb-down – The
Telegraph
Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: It would not surprise me if the Fed has to double-down on QE
before this is all over. It may even have to go full throttle like the Bank of
Japan. Then gold will shine again. But that is a story for another day.
ASIA
The fundamental
challenge facing the Chinese financial sector is how to improve the allocation
of credit without creating financial instability.
IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
UPDATE
Transcript of a Press Conf.: Release of World
Economic Outlook Update – IMF
Global Outlook—Still Three Speeds, But Slower – iMFdrirect
Olivier Blanchard: The
world economy remains in 3-speed mode.
Emerging markets are still growing rapidly. The US recovery is steady. And much of Europe continues to struggle.
When the facts change, the IMF, er, won't
change its mind – The
Telegraph
UK not included in the WEO update: perhaps to spare the IMF's blushes at
having been proved basically wrong about the UK.
OTHER
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed – Marc
to Market
1. China trade data for June
was much weaker than expected 2. Turkey’s support of the
lira has gotten more aggressive. 3. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than
expected 50 bp rate hike. 4. India is relying more on
regulatory support for the rupee.