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Thursday, July 11

11th Jul - US Close: More on Fed, hints of Euro-shock

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Europe: Bonds And Stocks Slide From Bernanke Opening Exuberance – ZH
US: Bernanke Unleashes New Record Highs For Stocks – ZH

Europe’s December Surprise?Macro and Markets
In each of these cases, the argument has been made that concessions cannot be made to these countries ahead of German elections in September (and  a German constitutional court ruling  on the ECB’s bond-purchase program).  This of course creates expectations that things will be much better for these countries after elections. There is talk of a December European leader’s meeting being the forum for a “move towards more Europe.”

Union Disunion: ECB to Begin Inspection of Euro-Zone BanksSpiegel
The European Central Bank is set to begin inspecting the balance sheets of large EU financial institutions, even as disagreement between Brussels and Berlin threatens the bloc's banking union plans.

Euro area house prices down by 2.2%Eurostat (pdf)

Portuguese President Re-Ignites "Time-Bomb"; Threatens Early ElectionsZH

Portuguese Markets: Stay Cool or Panic?WSJ

Portugal Uncorks Bottle of EU Crisis GenieMish’s

Euro Debt Rule Looms Over Italy After Budget Austerity ‘Backfired’WSJ

Greek Unemployment, Non-Performing Loans Soar To Fresh Record HighsZH

Key Earnings Reports Next WeekBespoke

Bank Earnings Season: Watching Interest RatesWSJ
Fri: JPM, Wells Fargo Mon: Citigroup Tue: Goldman Wed: BoA, Thu: MS

Parsing BernankeLong Short / FT

Bernanke Talks: A Conversation at the NBERWSJ
Transcript of the Wednesday’s Press Q&A

At-a-Glance: Reactions To Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speechWSJ

Analysis: Fed stops short of the clarity global markets craveReuters
Bernanke now knows why uncharted waters on mariners' charts used to be marked ‘Here be Dragons'.

JPM: Tapering Still Coming In SeptemberZH
In any event, unlike tapering, tightening will likely be a choice for Bernanke's successor, so what he says about the conditions for tightening are only indicative of the thinking that may prevail at that time. Nothing in yesterday's remarks led us to question our view that tapering in September is coming, conditional on the data cooperating.

Gold markets have jumped the gun of Bernanke climb-downThe Telegraph
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: It would not surprise me if the Fed has to double-down on QE before this is all over. It may even have to go full throttle like the Bank of Japan. Then gold will shine again. But that is a story for another day.

The Misallocation of Credit in ChinaPIIE
The fundamental challenge facing the Chinese financial sector is how to improve the allocation of credit without creating financial instability.

IMF’s Blanchard: No Replacement for China’s Growth EngineWSJ

Transcript of a Press Conf.: Release of World Economic Outlook UpdateIMF

Global Outlook—Still Three Speeds, But SloweriMFdrirect
Olivier Blanchard: The world economy remains in 3-speed mode.  Emerging markets are still growing rapidly.  The US recovery is steady.  And much of Europe continues to struggle. 

When the facts change, the IMF, er, won't change its mindThe Telegraph
UK not included in the WEO update: perhaps to spare the IMF's blushes at having been proved basically wrong about the UK.

Emerging Markets: What Has ChangedMarc to Market
1. China trade data for June was much weaker than expected 2. Turkey’s support of the lira has gotten more aggressive. 3. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp rate hike. 4. India is relying more on regulatory support for the rupee.