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Friday, July 5

5th Jul - EU Open: Payroll day, stunned by CBs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: The Policy Gap Is Getting Wider – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Central Banks Lift the Mood – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: Portugal bonds, German manufacturing, US jobsTradingFloor
The US payrolls were supposed to be the main event, but after Europe's and England's central banks surprised with their dovishness yesterday, the focus might shift to next week's Fed minutes.

Market Preview: Spotlight on US non-farm payrollsTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open mixed on Friday. Investors await US non-farm payrolls data later today which is likely to show a slower pace of job additions in June. Also, today's German factory orders data will garner market interest.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Focus will be on markets digesting the implications of both ECB and Bank of England’s new (and somewhat vague) form of forward guidance...Today’s key event is the release of the US employment report – after all, the Fed’s state-contingent forward guidance centres on the labour-market developments at present.

Rates morning comment – What a difference a day makes… or… well… not reallyNordea
Forward guidance is the new black among central bankers * Political crisis in Portugal * Today, there is only one thing on the agenda: US payrolls

EKP:lta uutta ohjeistusta rahapolitiikalle * Euro heikkeni selvästi

Forward, Central Bankers?Evan Soltas
The ECB has allowed macroeconomic conditions to get entirely out of hand. This is, in fact, not enough -- it's just a big step forward…I suspect that the Germans are coming around because they are now concerned about demand. They had not been before, setting them at odds with the rest of Europe.

Forward guidance; will it work?MacroScope / Reuters
This was a big move for a central bank which had hitherto spent 14 years insisting it would never “pre-commit” on interest rate policy. But it may not be decisive and further options are limited.

ECB, Germany try to appease markets on euro crisiseuobserver

What derailed the UK recovery?Coppola Comment

As Portugal's yield curve flattens, Draghi is put on the spot once againSober Look


China Suspends PMI Details in New Hurdle for Analysis: EconomyBB
China suspended the release of industry-specific data from a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers, with an official saying there’s limited time to analyze the large volume of responses.

China’s Great Rebalancing ActThe Diplomat
The government is at last showing signs of resolve, but the road ahead will be testing.

Roach v. Pettis (on China)Humble Student
China's transformation from investment led growth to consumer led growth is a story of short-term pain for long-term gain. The only questions are when?...and how much pain?


4 Lessons From A Life On Wall StreetZH

The Men That Broke Banks - Rogue TradersZH