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Monday, July 15

15th Jul - US Open: China GDP, Rajoy, US retail

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Equities Buoyed By Chinese "Goldilocks" Slowdown Ahead Of Bernanke Speech – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Midday Express (EU daily news) – Europa
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MoneyBeat: ‘Bernanke Put’ is Back in Play – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Firmer Dollar, Rising Equities to Start the Week – Marc to Market

Rajoy's risky bet on Spanish economic recoveryReuters
Spain's Mariano Rajoy is making a risky political bet in claiming recovery is close at hand as a recent economic upturn is fragile and even if it persists an austerity-weary public may not feel much benefit, analysts and sources say.

Slush fund scandal reignites in Spain, but risk of early elections remains smallOpen Europe

Spanish prime minister rejects calls to step down over scandalReuters
Rajoy on Monday rejected calls for his resignation over a ruling party financing scandal and said he would not allow the matter to deter his reform plans.

EU Week Ahead — July 15-19WSJ

Goldman Sachs Questions German Corporate Spending DeclineWSJ

ECB publishes study comparing collateral eligibility requirementsECB

The Bernanke doctrine and the separation between forward guidance and taperingBruegel

Report from Jackson HoleDavid Kotok / The Big Picture

Fed’s Forward Guidance Failing to DeliverWSJ

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June – Calculated Risk
Retail Sales Slide, Miss: Biggest Drop And Miss In 12 Months – ZH
Spot The Grotesque Retail Sales Seasonal Adjustment Outlier – ZH
Headline and Core Retail Sales Disappoint Expectations – dshort
Analysis: Weak Retail Likely Means GDP Below 1% - WSJ
A Slower Rate Of Growth In June, But The Annual Pace Rises – The Capital Spectator
Modest rise in U.S. retail sales offers cautionary note – Reuters
Retail Sales in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in June – BB

China’s GDP and the investment factoralphaville / FT
As Capital Economics observed on Monday, the bad news about the data really is that China’s economy shows no signs of weaning itself off its reliance on investment.

China GDP: where’s the demand?beyondbrics / FT
So is there anything positive to take from the GDP numbers? On the face of it, not much. As Simon Rabinovitch wrote in the FT, China’s economy is “weighed down by faltering exports, sluggish retail sales and softer investment.”

China: Growth but No Rebalancing – WSJ
China’s Slowing Economy, An Illustrated Guide – WSJ
NOMURA: Chinese Growth Will Fall Below 7% Next Year – BI
China's GDP growth slows to 7.5 percent, tests reform push – Reuters
China Growth Slows to 7.5% as 2013 Target Under Threat – BB

Bernanke has a lot of explaining to do this weekTradingFloor
John J Hardy: EURUSD saw its largest weekly trading range last week since November 2011 on Bernanke's hyper-dovish comments. This puts more focus than ever on his final semi-annual testimony before Congress this week.

FX Forecast Update - July: Forward guidance to weigh on EUR, GBPDanske Bank (pdf)

Weekend Sentiment Summary (July Week 2)Short Side of the Long

Maksutase toukokuussa 2013Suomen Pankki