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Monday, July 1

1st Jul - US Close

Click to enlarge. PMI's at a glance.

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Roundups & Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Early Exuberance Fades As Stocks Slip And Bond Yields DipZH

Focus Germany: Structural improvements support exceptional positionDB Research
The share of respondents in Germany assessing the current situation as “good”, for instance, has risen from 63% in 2007 to 75% currently, while this share has slumped heavily in all other European countries included in the survey

The Road to a European Banking Union: Part IIPIIE

The Road to a European Banking Union: Part IIIPIIE

Eurocrisis Conversation with Peter BofingerSony Kapoor
Note: Peter Bofinger and Sony Kapoor wrote the original Growth Compact for the EU in late 2011, which was then adopted in such a watered down form so as to make it ineffective.

Europe Accuses 13 Banks of Blocking Entrants to Default Swaps MarketDealBook / NYT
Incumbents don’t like disruption shocker: CDS editionalphaville / FT
The European Commission says it has found evidence that the banks had tried to prevent exchanges from entering the credit derivatives business between 2006 and 2009.

BoE preview: The King has left the buildingNordea

ECB Meetings and EURUSD in 2013TradingFloor
John J Hardy: ECB meetings have been very important event risks for EURUSD in 2013 - often setting the direction for weeks at a time in their wake.

Adjustments to the ECB’s capital subscription key due to EU enlargementECB

Euro zone joblessness at record high, inflation up – Reuters
Great Graphic: Italy's Surprise – Marc to Market
Final PMI press releases for June numbers – Markit

Banks benefiting from "taper" on both sides of the balance sheetSober Look
US equity markets are continuing to price in higher premiums for bank shares relative to the overall market. The increased steepness of the yield curve will mean higher net interest income, as banks borrow at historically low rates from depositors and lend longer term at the highest rates in two years.

Welcome to Year Five of RecoveryWSJ
After four bumpy years, the U.S. recovery finally appears to be on a smoother road. Many economists now predict 2014 will be the best year for growth since 2005, while joblessness is expected to click below 7% next year for the first time since 2008. Houses are selling again, the energy sector is booming and jobs, while not plentiful, are being created at a steady pace.

Factories rebound in June, but hiring down – Reuters
U.S. June ISM Manufacturing Report on Business – BB
Manufacturing in U.S. Rebounds as Orders Pick Up – BB
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Edged Back To Expansion In June – WSJ
PMI shows "modest manufacturing expansion", new export orders decline sharply – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing index increases in June to 50.9 – Calculated Risk
Manufacturing ISM Rebounds Slightly but Employment Drops – Mish’s
PMI Report: More Signs of Muddle Through – PragCap
ISM Beats As Expected, Employment Index Drops To Lowest Since Sep 2009 – ZH

ISM Manufacturing Back Above 50 – Bespoke

Has the Japanese Government Bond Market Stabilized?WSJ

Has the Chinese central bank really taken a hard line on liquidity?Bruegel
China still has a long way to go to disassemble the liquidity crisis bomb.

Likonomics: what's not to likeFree exchange / The Economist
Like the three "arrows" of Abenomics, Mr Li's strategy comprises three parts, they argue. Unlike the arrows of Abenomics, however, all of them hurt: 1) no stimulus 2) deleveraging 3) structural reform

Likonomics, or neologism X as we like to call itFree exchange / The Economist

How Do You Say “Minsky” in Mandarin?The View from the Blue Ridge

China: Economists React - More Bad Manufacturing News – WSJ
Investors take weak growth in their stride but rightly fret about property – beyondbrics / FT
China Falls From Hero to Zero – WSJ

June Macro Strategy Review The Big Picture

EM Preview for the Week Ahead: Policy and Data Marc to Market

EM stocks: cheap now? Not necessarilybeyondbrics / FT

Investment Outlook: Did somebody pinch the punch bowl?TradingFloor
Teis Knuthsen: Financial markets were stung by the Fed’s signals on cutting back on QE3 but in truth, they should take heart from the positive logic that is underpinning US monetary policy.

ECB headlines quartet of central bank meetings this weekTradingFloor
John J Hardy: A cavalcade of central bank meetings this week with the RBA up tonight, the Riksbankon Wednesday and the ECB and BoE on Thursday. This and key US data all week long should keep FX traders busy.

US snooping gives the EU an unexpected boostBrussels blog / FT

Prism scandal: ‘New leaks show how US is bugging its European allies’Presseurop

American spying in Europe: ‘Uncle Sam has behaved very badly’Presseurop

Will Snowden Revelations About Spying on Foreign Governments Undermine the European and Pacific Trade Talks?naked capitalism

EU orders security sweep after U.S. spying allegationsReuters

Germany says Cold War tactics don't help EU-U.S. trade talksReuters

Key Events And Market Issues In The Coming Week ZH