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Monday, July 1

1st Jul - EU Open: Peace, Krugman

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Markets Brace for Post-Fed World – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: PMIs Set To Dominate – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: Europe PMI & inflation, US manufacturing ISMTradingFloor
Signs of positive turns in both the European and the US purchasing manager indices are hoped for, while the European inflation level stays depressed.

Market Preview: Manufacturing PMIs across Europe and US in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open lower Monday. Against a backdrop of weak Chinese manufacturing PMI data released earlier today, traders will await manufacturing data across Europe and the US later today for hints on the global economic recovery.

Keskuspankeilla vilkas viikko * Dollari vahvistui Fedin edustajien puheiden jälkeen


Great Graphic: European Demographics and the German WindowMarc to Market
Demographics are working against it.  Simply put, German is near its peak in population and workforce.

German finance minister slams Irish bankers as 'aloof super humans'Reuters
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble slammed Irish bankers caught on tape joking about a bailout, calling them "aloof super humans" worthy of contempt.

Troika due back in Athens, with mixed agendaekathimerini

ECB preview: Monetary exit remains very distantNordea
We expect rates to be kept unchanged, which is in line with the general perception. This week’s meeting will be about the implications of the sell-off in fixed-income markets. Draghi is likely to repeat that an ECB exit is very distant; that rates will rise at some point; while excessive rate rises in the periphery could be dealt with by activating the OMT.

The Fed should listen to the grapevine, i.e. marketsHistorinhas
It wasn´t the case, according to Mishkin, that “in 2007 and 2008, the US economy encountered a perfect storm.” Much more likely it was the Fed concentrating on headline inflation and disregarding what market indicators – such things as the stock market, inflation expectations and the foreign exchange rate – were signaling.

Chart of the day, Fed-tightening editionFelix Salmon / Reuters
It shows when people expect the Fed to start raising interest rates, rather than slowing down on QE. But that all-important first rate hike now has a 65% probability of taking place in 2014, according to the market — up from less than 15% in the NY Fed’s April survey.

QE reversal = Ursa MinorHumble Student
Now that the Fed is hinting that it is thinking of taking its foot off the accelerator, we are now seeing the reversal of some of the effects of QE - and it's sent the markets into convulsions.

China - Manufacturing PMI confirms renewed deceleration Danske Bank (pdf)
New Export Orders Fall at Fastest Rate Since March 2009 Mish’s
China PMI Drops To Lowest In 9 Months ZH
Asian Stocks Outside Japan Decline on China Manufacturing BB
Stocks slip on Fed policy worries, China PMIs Reuters

New threats to China's property bubbleSober Look
These threats to China's property markets, combined with weakness in manufacturing, do not bode well for China's near term growth prospects.

China’s Financial Regulation MessWSJ
Has China’s financial regulatory regime reached its use-by date? The rapid proliferation of wealth management products in recent years could mean that it’s well past, say some of the industry's top executives and policy makers.

BOJ Beat: Five Takeaways From Tankan SurveyWSJ
The Bank of Japan's closely-watched tankan survey of corporate sentiment showed that the mood among businesses improved sharply in the three months to June after the central bank introduced an aggressive easing policy in April.

Ten Things to Watch in the Week Ahead Marc to Market

Global Macro In 12 Simple Charts - Find The Clean Shirt ZH

Attacks from America: NSA Spied on European Union OfficesSpiegel
America's NSA intelligence service allegedly targeted the European Union with its spying activities. According to SPIEGEL information, the US placed bugs in the EU representation in Washington and infiltrated its computer network. Cyber attacks were also perpetrated against Brussels in New York and Washington.

Investment Outlook July 2013: The Tipping PointPIMCO
Immediate analysis of the past 6 weeks’ market action would argue that in late April, both the Fed and PIMCO observed that bond markets were approaching a tipping point… It will also record however, that the risk was not only in narrow credit spreads and emerging market debt/equity markets but at the heart of the credit system itself: U.S. Treasuries.

FX Comment: broken recordNordea

Savon Sanomat sijoittajavastuusta ja liittovaltiokehityksestätyhmyri
Ilmeisesti maaseudun lehdiltä ei voi edellyttää minkäänlaista asiantuntemusta

Pankkiirit ovat alastomia "uusien vaatteidensa" allaTalSa
Keväällä julkaistu pankkikirja The Bankers' New Clothes pureutuu pankkitoiminnan ytimeen. Kirjoittajien Anat Admatin ja Martin Hellwigin mukaan pankkijärjestelmästä on mahdollista tehdä turvallinen ja terveellinen ainoastaan, jos pankkien pääomavaatimukset ovat nykyisiä selvästi suurempia. Nykypoliitikot eivät moisia vaatimuksia esitä.

Miten paljon ihminen tarvitsee pankkeja?TalSa
"Miten paljon ihminen tarvitsee pankkeja?" kysyy saksalainen talousasiantuntija Thomas Fricke uudessa kirjassaan. Tervejärkinen kysymys voi kummastuttaa. Nykyään kun sen voi kääntää toisinkin päin: voi kysyä, paljonko pankit tarvitsevat enää ihmisiä ja irvailla: tokko enää lainkaan tavallisia talliaisia tai yrittäjiä.

Ajantasan lauantaivierasYLE
Perussuomalaisten puoluekokous Joensuussa. Ajantasan vieraana on tulevaisuudestaan juuri ilmoittanut puheenjohtaja Timo Soini.

Tohtori Raimo - valtakunnan terapeuttiYLE Areena
Tohtori Himanen ja ikuinen nousari. Osa 4. Filosofi Himanen hakee pysyvää, luovaa nousuhumalaa Tohtori Raimon vastaanotolla. Onnistuuko tohtori pelastamaan tulevaisuusselonteon ja sen tekijän? Näyttelijät: Martti Suosalo, Jukka Puotila, Nora Rinne.