Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Markets Brace for Post-Fed
World – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: PMIs Set To Dominate – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Signs of positive
turns in both the European and the US purchasing manager indices are hoped for,
while the European inflation level stays depressed.
European markets are
likely to open lower Monday. Against a backdrop of weak Chinese manufacturing
PMI data released earlier today, traders will await manufacturing data across Europe and the US later today for hints on the global economic
recovery.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Keskuspankeilla
vilkas viikko * Dollari vahvistui Fedin edustajien puheiden jälkeen
EUROPE
Great Graphic: European Demographics and the
German Window – Marc
to Market
Demographics are
working against it. Simply put, German
is near its peak in population and workforce.
German finance minister slams Irish bankers as
'aloof super humans' – Reuters
German Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble slammed Irish bankers caught on tape joking about a
bailout, calling them "aloof super humans" worthy of contempt.
Troika due back in Athens, with mixed agenda – ekathimerini
ECB preview: Monetary exit remains very distant – Nordea
We expect rates to be
kept unchanged, which is in line with the general perception. This week’s
meeting will be about the implications of the sell-off in fixed-income markets.
Draghi is likely to repeat that an ECB exit is very distant; that rates will
rise at some point; while excessive rate rises in the periphery could be dealt
with by activating the OMT.
UNITED STATES
The Fed should listen
to the grapevine, i.e. markets – Historinhas
It wasn´t the case, according to Mishkin, that “in 2007 and 2008, the US
economy encountered a perfect storm.” Much more likely it was the Fed
concentrating on headline inflation and disregarding what market indicators –
such things as the stock market, inflation expectations and the foreign
exchange rate – were signaling.
Chart of the day,
Fed-tightening edition – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
It shows when people
expect the Fed to start raising interest rates, rather than slowing down on QE.
But that all-important first rate hike now has a 65% probability of taking
place in 2014, according to the market — up from less than 15% in the NY Fed’s
April survey.
QE reversal = Ursa Minor – Humble
Student
Now that the Fed is
hinting that it is thinking of taking its foot off the accelerator, we are now
seeing the reversal of some of the effects of QE - and it's sent the markets
into convulsions.
ASIA
New Export Orders
Fall at Fastest Rate Since March 2009 – Mish’s
These threats to China's property markets, combined with weakness in
manufacturing, do not bode well for China's near term growth prospects.
Has China’s financial
regulatory regime reached its use-by date? The rapid proliferation of wealth
management products in recent years could mean that it’s well past, say some of
the industry's top executives and policy makers.
BOJ Beat: Five
Takeaways From Tankan Survey – WSJ
The Bank of Japan's closely-watched tankan survey of corporate sentiment
showed that the mood among businesses improved sharply in the three months to
June after the central bank introduced an aggressive easing policy in April.
OTHER
Ten Things to Watch
in the Week Ahead – Marc
to Market
Global Macro In 12
Simple Charts - Find The Clean Shirt – ZH
America's NSA intelligence service allegedly targeted the European Union
with its spying activities. According to SPIEGEL information, the US placed
bugs in the EU representation in Washington and infiltrated its computer
network. Cyber attacks were also perpetrated against Brussels in New York and
Washington.
Investment Outlook July 2013: The Tipping
Point – PIMCO
Immediate analysis of
the past 6 weeks’ market action would argue that in late April, both the Fed
and PIMCO observed that bond markets were approaching a tipping point… It will
also record however, that the risk was not only in narrow credit spreads and
emerging market debt/equity markets but at the heart of the credit system
itself: U.S. Treasuries.
FX Comment: broken record – Nordea
FINNISH
Savon Sanomat sijoittajavastuusta ja
liittovaltiokehityksestä – tyhmyri
Ilmeisesti
maaseudun lehdiltä ei voi edellyttää minkäänlaista asiantuntemusta
Pankkiirit ovat alastomia "uusien
vaatteidensa" alla
– TalSa
Keväällä
julkaistu pankkikirja The Bankers' New Clothes pureutuu pankkitoiminnan
ytimeen. Kirjoittajien Anat Admatin ja Martin Hellwigin mukaan
pankkijärjestelmästä on mahdollista tehdä turvallinen ja terveellinen
ainoastaan, jos pankkien pääomavaatimukset ovat nykyisiä selvästi suurempia.
Nykypoliitikot eivät moisia vaatimuksia esitä.
Miten paljon ihminen tarvitsee pankkeja? – TalSa
"Miten
paljon ihminen tarvitsee pankkeja?" kysyy saksalainen talousasiantuntija
Thomas Fricke uudessa kirjassaan. Tervejärkinen kysymys voi kummastuttaa.
Nykyään kun sen voi kääntää toisinkin päin: voi kysyä, paljonko pankit
tarvitsevat enää ihmisiä ja irvailla: tokko enää lainkaan tavallisia talliaisia
tai yrittäjiä.
Ajantasan lauantaivieras – YLE
Perussuomalaisten
puoluekokous Joensuussa. Ajantasan vieraana on tulevaisuudestaan juuri
ilmoittanut puheenjohtaja Timo Soini.
Tohtori Raimo - valtakunnan terapeutti – YLE Areena
Tohtori
Himanen ja ikuinen nousari. Osa 4. Filosofi Himanen hakee pysyvää, luovaa
nousuhumalaa Tohtori Raimon vastaanotolla. Onnistuuko tohtori pelastamaan
tulevaisuusselonteon ja sen tekijän? Näyttelijät: Martti Suosalo, Jukka
Puotila, Nora Rinne.