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Monday, July 29

29th Jul - EU Open: Big Week Ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: GDP, Jobs, the Fed and Earnings to Boot – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Volatility Ahead as Central Banks Loom – WSJ

3 Numbers To Watch: IT sentiment, UK CBI, US pending home salesTradingFloor
An index of confidence in Italy’s manufacturing sector, the UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey, and the US Pending Home Sales Index are among the day’s key numbers to watch

Market Preview: US pending home sales data in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open firmer on Monday. With a light European macro calendar today, investors will keep an eye on the US pending home sales report which is likely to show a monthly decline for June.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
The calendar is thin today....the market is likely to begin to focus on upcoming events with the rest of this week being far more action packed.

Market comment: Big, bigger...Nordea
Core bond yields edged lower – more modest support likely today * Japanese equities feeling the heat in earnest again * The calendar looking overwhelming: US GDP, ISM & payrolls, Fed, ECB & BoE…* Italy awaiting the Supreme Court decision on Berlusconi * Belgium, Italy, Germany and Spain to sell bonds * Coupon and redemption payments to support Spanish and Italian bonds * US pending home sales index out today

Viikolla korkopäätöksiä ja tiukkaa talousdataa USA:sta * Huolet Kiinasta painoivat raaka-aineita

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Viikko alkoi hieman negatiivisessa merkeissä, kun Kiina aloitti maan julkisten velkojen tarkastusprosessin. Edessä erittäin vilkas viikko niin tuloksien kuin makrodatan osalta. Osakefutuurit plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta OMX HEX:iin. Konepajojen 2Q-raporttien yhteenveto: Metso hinnoittelultaan houkuttelevin, Koneessa suurin arvostuksen lasku. 2Q13-tuloskauden kommentit: Uponor, lisää 2Q13-tuloksia huomenna mm. Orion ja Raute.


Schaeuble Says Pressure on Greece Must Remain Ahead of ElectionBB

Understanding the EU Regime: 5 ChartsCraig Willy

Europe Passes The Inflection Point (Or Why LTRO3 Is Inevitable)ZH

For many Americans rising home prices are no cause for celebrationSober Look

Infrastructure skeptics take a hitNoahpinion
At a time when interest rates are super-low and millions are out of work, there is no good case against a big blast of infrastructure spending. Let's do it right now.

Lew says stubborn Congress risks repeating U.S. fiscal woundsReuters
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Sunday warned Congress against manufacturing a crisis over federal spending in the months ahead, as looming deadlines set the stage for a repeat of the political deadlock which two years ago triggered worldwide financial market turmoil.

Growing Payrolls Probably Cut Unemployment: U.S. Economy PreviewBB

Will this be a lost decade for profits?Macrofugue

“Better Than Expected Earnings”PragCap

They're Back! Congress threatens to Default AgainCalculated Risk

What the Fed has said about the labor force participation rate since July 2011BI

"The Taper Is Coming" - What Wall Street ThinksZH
Consensus: September tapering start with ~$20 billion in initial reduction.

5 reasons the Fed's taper will begin in SeptemberSober Look
Labor markets, money supply, economic activity, financial stress, impact on interest rates.

Fed Only Putting Off Day of ReckoningWSJ

FOMC Preview: Economic SlowdownCalculated Risk
A key for this statement is how the FOMC addresses the weaker incoming data.

FOMC WeekTim Duy’s Fed Watch
This will be a very interesting FOMC meeting even if the statement is left largely unchanged.  That alone reveals that the Fed is moving ahead with their plan to taper undeterred by any soft spots in the data. 

The case for Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chairEconbrowser

Next Fed Chair: Obama, Lawmakers Offer Their TakesWSJ

China’s Industrial Profits Growth Moderates as Economy CoolsBB

China To Kick Hornets Nest Of Bad Debt With Audit Of Local Government LoansZH

China to Audit Government Borrowings as Risks to Growth IncreaseBB

Will Kuroda Do A Bernanke?ZH
Citi's Steve Englander: On balance we see some temptation for Kuroda to speak out whether ex cathedra as BoJ Governor or with his personal view Bernanke style so as to get the NKY-JPY train back on track.

Fundamental Keys in the Week AheadMarc to Market
The week ahead is chock full of fundamental events, and is, arguably, the most important week for the next month. Indeed, the events this week will help shape expectations for the period ahead. The US dollar has been trading with a heavier bias against the major currencies, and the events this week have the potential to set the stage for a recovery.

While you were busy… – Nordea (pdf)
In this short presentation, we’ve tried to highlight some of the major economic and financial market events that has happened over the past few weeks.

How much capital should banks have?
Lev Ratnovski (IMF economist): After much negotiation, Basel III regulations set capital requirements to be between 8% and 12%. This column suggests this may not be enough. It looks at how much capital banks would need to fully absorb asset shocks of the size seen in OECD countries over the last 50 years. The answer is 18% risk-weighted capital, corresponding to 9% leverage. This benchmark is highly conservative, so the true 'optimal' bank capital may be lower.

Book Bits | 7.27.13The Capital Spectator

Turning Points: Currencies, Commodities, and Credit MarketsCFA Institute
A nice linkfest

Great Graphic: US, UK, EMU GDP Relative to Pre-Crisis PeakMarc to Market

Time-Varying Fund Manager SkillMathFinance

Suomi alisuoriutuu – tässä on syyTalSa
Suomi komeilee useiden vertailujen kärjessä, ja keksintöjemme laatua ja määrää ylistetään. Silti Suomen vienti ei vedä ja talousennusteita korjataan kilvan alaspäin. Asiantuntijat kertovat, millä keinoin Suomi saisi enemmän irti kilpailukyvystään ja innovaatioistaan.

Varoitus: väkivaltaisia kansannousuja nähdään pian EuroopassaSK
”Eurooppa on jo meidän silmissämme kriisialue, jonka avustamiseen varaudumme”, sanoo Punaisen Ristin Kansainvälisen Komitean (ICRC) pääjohtaja Yves Daccord.