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| Daily chart - near range's bottom. Red vertical lines are ECB press Q&A days |
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Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Payrolls Still Dominate – WSJ
Rates morning comment
– focus on the Fed in the week ahead – Nordea
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: EU confidence, German
output, US credit – TradingFloor
The Sentix Investor
Confidence update for June will offer guidance on the summer outlook for the
Eurozone, followed by new numbers on German industrial production and US consumer credit.
Market Preview: EU confidence data and Draghi’s
speech eyed – TradingFloor
European markets are
expected to open higher on Monday amid speculation that Greece will secure the last tranche of its aid
package today. Meanwhile, traders will keep a tab on key economic releases in
the Europe and Draghi’s speech later in the day.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Focus today will
be on markets digesting Friday’s strong payrolls out of the US in light of what
this means for Fed tapering its quantitative easing (QE) programme.... With major central banks now engaged in forward guidance we are currently
in an environment where markets need to price a data-
dependent Fed exit
contrasting with a time-dependent one from the ECB... Some uncertainty in Europe remains in place ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Valtiovarainministerit
todennäköisesti sopuun Kreikan tukipaketista * Vahvat työllisyysluvut vetivät
korot USA:ssa nousuun
EUROPE
How knowledge transmission should work – mainly
macro
The tenth anniversary
of the UK’s 2003 decision not to join the Eurozone has just passed. With all my
complaints about how bad macroeconomic policymaking has been recently, I
thought it was worth analysing an example of a good decision.
Rationality and the Euro – Krugman
/ NYT
Simon Wren-Lewis, for
once, has a happy story to tell. He looks back at Britain’s fateful decision,
ten years ago, not to join the euro, and argues that the decision was made on
the basis of — gasp! — actual analysis.
Eurozone crisis over? Not by a long, long way – The
Telegraph
'The euro is no longer
under existential threat,” Herman Van Rompuy said three weeks ago. “Financial
stability has been restored.”
Weidmann: Monetary Policy Can’t Solve Crisis – WSJ
Bundesbank Chief States the Obvious "ECB
Cannot Solve Euro Zone Crisis"; Unstated Message "No One Else Can
Either" – Mish’s
The impact of the falling savings ratio – Touchstone
Much of the current
‘recovery’ can be explained by a fall in the UK household savings ratio.
Something I warned against last year.
PIIGS
Greece, foreign lenders close in on deal to
unlock aid – Reuters
Greece is likely to
reach a deal with foreign lenders on its latest bailout review before a meeting
of euro zone finance ministers on Monday to decide on further aid, EU and Greek
officials said on Sunday.
Young Spaniards flock to Germany to escape
economic misery back home – The
Guardian
With youth jobless
rates at 50% back home, graduates are heading for Berlin – but still grumble
about the weather
(Broke) Italy “Would Love To” But Can't Pay Its
Bills This Year – Testosterone
Pit
UNITED STATES
Implied rate hike date moves to October of 2014 – Sober
Look
The Chart That Housing Bulls Don't Want You To
See – ZH
Pending home sales
tend to drop (with a lag) following higher mortgage rates.
It's the risk premium, stupid! – Humble
Student
Bernanke knows exactly
what he is doing when he hints about tapering in his public remarks. It's the
risk premium, stupid! And it's going up.
Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3
Tapering – Calculated
Risk
That Terrible Taper – Krugman
/ NYT
Junk bonds outperforming other fixed income
asset classes – Sober
Look
With HY spread being a
significant component of the overall yield, strong equity markets have kept
yield increases relatively modest. If equities come under pressure however, all
bets are off for HY.
ASIA
The Reason For China's
Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble In History – ZH
OTHER
Why Bonds Are Set To Bounce Back – Asia Confidential
What then can we look
for the second half of the year? Broadly, I expect deflationary concerns to
take centre stage again as the U.S. economy stagnates, Japan intensifies
currency wars and thereby exports deflation while Chinese GDP dips below 7% by
the fourth quarter. This will take any talk of significant QE tapering in the
U.S. off the table while Europe and Japan continue to provide ample liquidity
amid weakening economies. China will be the only country tightening policy as
it resists calls to reflate its credit bubble.
FX Comment: green shots – Nordea
The Global Investment Climate – Marc
to Market
1) The Fed has begun a
protracted exit from the extraordinary monetary policy; while 2) other major
central banks are not ready to follow suit. This is encouraging 3) an unwind of
structural positions, that were predicated on low US interest rates, and 4) the
replacement of the dollar as funding currency, which is leading to 5) portfolio
adjustments away from fixed income, emerging markets and some commodities,
including precious metals. The dollar, US and Japanese equities are favored by
investors.
IMF May Cut Global Growth Forecast as Emerging
Markets Slow – BB
No Hockeystick-save Here: IMF To Slash Economic
Growth Forecast... Again – ZH
The IMF is scheduled
to publish new forecasts later this week.
Do the inflationistas really believe what they
say? – Noahpinion
Crib Sheet: How I Work (Self-indulgent) – Krugman
/ NYT
OFF-TOPIC
America's NSA 'in bed with' Germany and most
others: Snowden – Reuters
Snowden Interview: NSA 'In Bed Together with
the Germans' – Spiegel
In an interview,
Edward Snowden accuses the National Security Agency of partnering with Germany
and other governments in its spying activities. New information also indicates
close working ties between the German foreign intelligence agency and the
American authority.
GCHQ Surveillance: The Power of Britain's Data
Vacuum – Spiegel
Britain's intelligence service stores millions of bits of online data in
Internet buffers. In SPIEGEL, Edward Snowden explains GCHQ's "full
take" approach. All data that travels through the UK is captured.
Ghosts of the NSA: Relics of Cold War Spying
Dot Germany – Spiegel
The National Security
Agency has long been active in Germany, though much of its spying was conducted
against the Eastern Bloc during the Cold War. Today, former listening stations
and other facilities dot the German landscape.
When junket operator
Suncity opened its first high roller baccarat table at Steve Wynn's Macau
casino in 2007 to lure China's wealthiest punters, the firm had fewer than 30
employees and no computers or equipment other than pen and paper.