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Thursday, July 4

4th Jul - EU Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Traders Focus on Jobs, Not EgyptWSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: It’s Central Bank Day In Europe – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: UK house prices, BoE and ECB rate decisionsTradingFloor
Thursday brings an update on the UK Halifax House Price Index, followed by interest rate announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Market Preview: BoE and ECB policy meetings in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Thursday. Investors will keep a tab on the BoE and the ECB's interest rate decisions due later today — both central banks are likely to maintain the status quo. Meanwhile, US markets are closed today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)

Fed yhä kurssilla elvytyksen vähentämiseksi * Portugalin korko nousi poliittisten riskien siivittämänä *  Huomio Draghin viestissä


France and Germany eat their words on US trade talkseuobserver
France and Germany have backed down on threats to suspend US trade talks, after the US offered to set up more "working groups" on data protection.

A rating agency for Europe – A good idea?
US-based credit rating agencies are regularly subject to condemnation for causing or amplifying financial crises – the Eurozone Crisis in particular. Should Europe try to set up a European agency to counter this? This column discusses evidence that shows that the largest German rating agency was more aggressive than the US Big Three both in terms of a lower level and a higher propensity to quickly downgrade Eurozone problem countries.

Nigel Farage Destroys Europe's Latest Bad IdeaZH

Nigel Farage Blasts European Parliament for Hopeless Positions on Youth Job Programs and Global Warming ProgramsMish’s

Portugal’s Political CrisisPIIE
As the horse trading takes place, the Troika will grant Portugal limited economic latitude to change policies. Little change should be expected in the economic outlook, apart from further short-term deterioration in the markets.

Portugal crisis to test ECB´s strategyMacroScope / Reuters

Portugal - Revisiting crisis backstop facilities in Q&ADanske Bank (pdf)

Fed Watch: A Pledge To Be ResponsibleTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Monetary policymakers have bent over backwards to convince financial market participants that tapering quantitative easing does not imply an earlier date for the lift-off from the zero interest rate policy.  It has been a hard message to sell.

Employment Situation PreviewCalculated Risk
My guess is the BLS will report close to the consensus of 161,000 jobs added in June.  A key will the unemployment rate to see if that is tracking the Fed's forecast for QE3 tapering.


Rates morning comment – ECB and BoE dayNordea

Today’s menu is ECB, BoE and Spanish auction * Next step in Portugal is keeping the government together * Strong numbers yesterday * Riksbank stays on hold as expected * ECB preview: Monetary exit remains very distant * BoE preview: The King has left the building
Capital Flows Management - Lessons from International ExperienceIMF (pdf)
IMF and PBC Joint Conference, 311 pages.