Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat:
China’s Slump Ripples Globally – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Second-quarter GDP for
China leads the day’s economic news, followed by US retail sales and the July
report on the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey.
European markets are
likely to open firmer Monday. With a light European macro calendar, traders
keenly await US retail sales data due later today. Meanwhile, Fitch cut its credit
rating on France while China's second quarter economic growth slowed.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Focus on US
figures with both Empire manufacturing and June retail sales out... digesting the Chinese
data for hints as to what sort of landing the China’s economy is in for
:
German bonds rally –
US Treasuries see profit taking * US equities continue to advance * Portuguese
bonds with a sell-off * Chinese growth slows, but not more than expected * S&P
sees a positive outlook for Ireland – Fitch downgrades France * First US bank
earnings beat expectations * New York Fed manufacturing index and Citigroup
earnings in store today * US retail sales and Bernanke ahead later in the week
* Germany, Spain and France set to sell bonds * Coupon and redemption flows
supportive
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan hidastunut kasvu koettelee hallinnon
linjaa * Portugalin kriisi painoi Saksan korkoja
EUROPE
Portugal's
socialists walking the nation toward debt restructuring – Sober
Look
Portugal's socialist
party is now leading in opinion polls, making this potential renegotiation of
the bailout terms a reality. At some point however, Portugal's creditors will
run out of patience and the political will to allow the nation to slip yet
again.
Forward guidance and the communication mess – ECB
Watchers
The Trichet doctrine and the separation between
standard and non-standard measures – ECB
Watchers
UNITED STATES
The following six
charts may shed some further light (in addition to this eye-opening chart) on
what is going on under the covers of the multiple-expanding,
fundamentals-don't-matter, unreality that is the US equity market...
JPMorgan: don't confuse dovish comments on
rates with "tapering"
– Sober
Look
Time To Move On – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Whether or not the
taper happens in September or December, financial market participants have
already digested the news that quantitative easing in not forever. For the most part, incoming data is now about
timing the next milestone in the process of policy normalization, the first
rate hike. Expect policymakers to
continue to push back on expectations that 2014 will bring a rate hike. Indeed, it seems a lot has to go right in the
data to make that happen.
ASIA
Analysis: Even as election spells Japan PM win,
big reform may lose out – Reuters
Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe is likely to win a mandate on Sunday for his three-part recipe to end
stagnation in the world's third-biggest economy, but anyone expecting him to
use it to push a "Big Bang" reform agenda may need a reality check.
China Wealth Eludes Foreigners as
Stocks Earn 1% in 20 Years – BB
Has an investment
story ever suffered such a dramatic fall from grace?
China's GDP growth slows to 7.5 percent, tests
reform push – Reuters
Weak overseas demand
weighed on output and investment, lining up a test of Beijing's resolve to
revamp the world's second-biggest economy in the face of deteriorating data.
China’s Economy Grows 7.5% Amid Risk of
Deepening Slowdown – BB
Economy slowed for a
second quarter as gains in factory output decelerated, and is at risk of
weakening further as the government reins in credit expansion to reduce the
danger of a financial crisis.
Analysis: As China's economic pain increases,
so does reform effort – Reuters
China's reform-minded
leaders are more willing than ever to raise the pain threshold for the economy
to push through long-term reforms, despite a protracted slowdown that has
sparked calls for looser monetary policy.
Economists React: Chinese Growth Falls Again – WSJ
Asian stocks, Australian dollar bounce on China
data – Reuters
Asian Stocks Gain After China Growth Data
Matches Forecasts – BB
OTHER
Thoughts on the Week Ahead – Marc to
Market
Regime shifts = Volatility – Humble
Student