Google Analytics

Monday, July 15

15th Jul - EU Open: China's GDP is out

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: China’s Slump Ripples Globally – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: China GDP Data Helps Tone – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: China GDP, US retail sales, NY Fed indexTradingFloor
Second-quarter GDP for China leads the day’s economic news, followed by US retail sales and the July report on the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Market Preview: China's economy slows; US retail sales eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open firmer Monday. With a light European macro calendar, traders keenly await US retail sales data due later today. Meanwhile, Fitch cut its credit rating on France while China's second quarter economic growth slowed.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Focus on US figures with both Empire manufacturing and June retail sales out... digesting the Chinese data for hints as to what sort of landing the China’s economy is in for
Market Comment: China’s growth not disappointing this timeNordea
German bonds rally – US Treasuries see profit taking * US equities continue to advance * Portuguese bonds with a sell-off * Chinese growth slows, but not more than expected * S&P sees a positive outlook for Ireland – Fitch downgrades France * First US bank earnings beat expectations * New York Fed manufacturing index and Citigroup earnings in store today * US retail sales and Bernanke ahead later in the week * Germany, Spain and France set to sell bonds * Coupon and redemption flows supportive

Kiinan hidastunut kasvu koettelee hallinnon linjaa * Portugalin kriisi painoi Saksan korkoja


Portugal's socialists walking the nation toward debt restructuringSober Look
Portugal's socialist party is now leading in opinion polls, making this potential renegotiation of the bailout terms a reality. At some point however, Portugal's creditors will run out of patience and the political will to allow the nation to slip yet again.

Forward guidance and the communication messECB Watchers

The Trichet doctrine and the separation between standard and non-standard measuresECB Watchers

The Bottom-Up "Miracle"ZH
The following six charts may shed some further light (in addition to this eye-opening chart) on what is going on under the covers of the multiple-expanding, fundamentals-don't-matter, unreality that is the US equity market...

JPMorgan: don't confuse dovish comments on rates with "tapering"Sober Look

Time To Move OnTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Whether or not the taper happens in September or December, financial market participants have already digested the news that quantitative easing in not forever.  For the most part, incoming data is now about timing the next milestone in the process of policy normalization, the first rate hike.  Expect policymakers to continue to push back on expectations that 2014 will bring a rate hike.  Indeed, it seems a lot has to go right in the data to make that happen.

Analysis: Even as election spells Japan PM win, big reform may lose outReuters
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to win a mandate on Sunday for his three-part recipe to end stagnation in the world's third-biggest economy, but anyone expecting him to use it to push a "Big Bang" reform agenda may need a reality check.

Japan's stagnation: demand-side or supply-side? Noahpinion

China Wealth Eludes Foreigners as Stocks Earn 1% in 20 Years BB

Don't write off China even though growth is slowingThe Telegraph
Has an investment story ever suffered such a dramatic fall from grace?

China's GDP growth slows to 7.5 percent, tests reform pushReuters
Weak overseas demand weighed on output and investment, lining up a test of Beijing's resolve to revamp the world's second-biggest economy in the face of deteriorating data.

China’s Economy Grows 7.5% Amid Risk of Deepening SlowdownBB
Economy slowed for a second quarter as gains in factory output decelerated, and is at risk of weakening further as the government reins in credit expansion to reduce the danger of a financial crisis.

Analysis: As China's economic pain increases, so does reform effortReuters
China's reform-minded leaders are more willing than ever to raise the pain threshold for the economy to push through long-term reforms, despite a protracted slowdown that has sparked calls for looser monetary policy.

China’s GDP Growth Slows to Target Level and May Slip MoreWSJ

China Q2 GDP – short-term pain for long-term gainNordea

China: GDP growth in renewed decelerationDanske Bank (pdf)

China GDPalphaville / FT

Economists React: Chinese Growth Falls AgainWSJ

Asian stocks, Australian dollar bounce on China dataReuters
Asian Stocks Gain After China Growth Data Matches ForecastsBB

Thoughts on the Week AheadMarc to Market

Regime shifts = VolatilityHumble Student