MoreLiver's Daily: 3rd Jul - US Open: Europe does it again

Three years into an unresolved euro zone crisis, Reuters polls show a marked split on the future depending on whether forecasters are based inside or outside the currency bloc.

Oscar Wilde and the euro zone – MacroScope / Reuters

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one looks like misfortune, to lose two smacks of carelessness.

As Europe Stuggles to Employ Young, Germany Seeks to Re-Employ Retired – WSJ

Merkel Hosts EU Jobs Summit in Bid to Stem Austerity Fatigue – BB

Extremely weak Swedish Services PMI – Nordea

PORTUGAL

Analysis: Portugal, Greece risk reawakening euro zone beast – Reuters

A teetering Portuguese government has underlined the threat that the euro zone debt crisis, in hibernation for almost a year, may be about to reawaken.

Portugal Leads Rise in European Bond Risk as Coalition Crumbles – BB

“Portugal is almost certainly going to become a crisis,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Mint Partners Ltd in London, wrote in a note to clients today. “When politicians walk away from government, you know a new election is coming. That’s the point economic reform dies.”

Portuguese government at risk of collapse over austerity – euobserver

Portuguese government at risk of collapsing after Foreign Minister resigns – Open Europe

Portuguese turmoil – alphaville / FT

To Lose One Minister Might Be Seen as a Misfortune… – WSJ

The Euro Zone’s Crisis is Over. You Got that Lisbon? – WSJ

Portuguese Yield Spikes to 8% as Coalition Splinters on Austerity Fatigue – Mish’s

Portugal’s Coalition Splinters on Austerity Fatigue – BB

CYPRUS

President of the Republic of Cyprus visits the ECB – ECB

A Cypriot bond glitch? – alphaville / FT

Cyprus announced the results of its sovereign debt restructuring on some €1bn of domestic-law bonds earlier this week. The one the Troika wanted for — OH. Oopsy-daisy. Did FT Alphaville say sovereign restructuring. We meant “debt management operation”.

GREECE

Greece sees deal with lenders, to miss transfer scheme goal: official – Reuters

International lenders may freeze emergency aid to Greece for three months unless Athens can convince them that the country is on track to meet its reform goals, a senior euro zone official said on Wednesday.

Exclusive: Greece has three days to deliver or face consequences - EU officials – Reuters

Greece has three days to reassure Europe and the IMF that it can deliver on conditions attached to its bailout in order to receive its next tranche of aid, four euro zone officials said on Tuesday.

UNITED STATES

Forget Tapering and Exit via Reserve Requirements – David Kotok / The Big Picture

Instead of spooking fixed-income markets with uncertain proposals for asset sales, they might opt for an obvious alternative, which we have put forth before. Raising reserve requirements to idle at least 90% or some other very high percentage of the excess reserves would eliminate the need for the Fed to sell assets.

We've Seen This Jobs Movie Before – ZH

ISN employment index turning down, payrolls following?

ASIA

Guest post: Asean – waiting for Japan to reflate – beyondbrics / FT

By Leif Lybecker Eskesen of HSBC Global Research

Don’t try this at home – central banker edition – alphaville / FT

The RBA has been attempting to talk down the dollar for months without, it has to be said, much impact. So perhaps humour is the way to go after all.

OTHER

Market Update: Surveying The Damage – ZH

Global systemically important banks: updated assessment methodology and the higher loss absorbency requirement – BIS

Special Report: Why Brazil's new middle class is seething – Reuters

Biggest Stock Market Scams in History – ZH

FINNISH

"Suomi jättää euron ensimmäisenä" – KL

Euroalue hajoaa, jos sen maat eivät saa enemmän valtaa muun muassa valuuttapolitiikassa ja verotuksessa, sanoo tunnettu saksalaisekonomisti Thomas Mayer.

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Wednesday, July 3

3rd Jul - US Open: Europe does it again