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Monday, July 22

22nd Jul - EU Open: Asia, G20 chewn, PMI week

The richest 200 people have about $2.7 trillion, which is more than the poorest 3.5 billion people, who have only $2.2 trillion combined.

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Can Abe Deliver? – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Small Gains With Portugal in Focus – WSJ

3 Numbers To Watch: US Chicago Fed index, US home sales, WTI oilTradingFloor
Today’s updates for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and existing home sales will provide new perspective on the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, keep an eye on oil prices, which have rallied in recent weeks.

Market Preview: US existing home sales report in focusTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open in positive territory Monday. With a light European macro calendar, investors keenly await the US existing home sales data due later today which is likely to show an increase in June.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
With a very thin calendar focus will be on markets digesting the statement from the G20 meeting over the weekend. Today US existing home sales, earnings. This week global PMIs and German IFO.

Market comment: Uptrend in US yields brokenNordea
US Treasury yields break their 3-month uptrend * Japanese elections behind – now for the real reforms * No national salvation pact in Portugal * China moves forward in its financial reform * Euro-zone confidence data eagerly awaited * The Netherlands, Italy and the US to sell bonds – redemptions continuing

Etsiikö EKP syytä koronlaskuun? * Aben koalitio vaalivoittoon

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Muutokset ulkomaalaisomistuksissa kesäkuussa osoittavat ulkomaalaissijoittajien kiinnostuksen kohdistuneen defensiivisiin osakkeisiin. Syklisiä sen sijaan myytiin.


Rival accuses Germany's Merkel of deceit over euro zone bailoutsReuters
Germany's main opposition leader Peer Steinbrueck accused Chancellor Angela Merkel of covering up the likelihood that German taxpayers will have to fund further euro zone bailouts due to a looming election.

Is Germany Repeating American Errors at Bretton Woods?View / BB
Lippmann, if he were alive, would no doubt warn that the seemingly endless austerity being imposed on southern Europe will ultimately lead to a political backlash that will make it unsustainable. Germany will soon have to choose: a Marshall Plan for the south, or an economic and political breakdown of the euro zone.

Fed Reviews Rule on Big Banks’ Commodity Trades After ComplaintsBB

Masters of Universe Don’t Need Fed Hand-HoldingView / BB
Caroline Baum: The Fed will be relieved when the economy can shed its training wheels and ride on its own. Higher interest rates should be viewed as a badge of success. In fact, something would be amiss if a stronger economy didn’t usher in higher rates.

The Leverage Ratio regulation will hurt liquidity, introduce risksSober Look
New bank regulation focused on the so-called Leverage Ratio is expected to do major damage to the US repo market.

The SEC’s important case against Stevie CohenFelix Salmon / Reuters
If Dodd-Frank doesn’t work, here are four things that couldWonkblog / WP

China Rebalancing Watch: Interest Rate Reform Half MeasureThe Diplomat
There may be some interesting movements in bank shares as investors consider what the future holds for them without such a large interest rate margin cushion.

The Myth of China’s Economic ReformView / BB
William Pesek: Likonomics is a ridiculously premature nod to ideas that are, at best, still on the drawing board and might never come off it.

JPMorgan Asks "How Similar Is China To Japan In The Late 1980s?"ZH

China Bank Shares Fall as Beijing Loosens Grip on Interest RatesWSJ

Japan - Upper House victory paves the way for political stabilityDanske Bank (pdf)

Japan’s election a mandate for the status quo, not changeTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's victory in Japan's Upper House elections means he has won a battle. But he will still lose the war to create more growth and reform his country's economy.

Half a Dozen Thoughts about the Week Ahead Marc to Market

When Central Bankers Fail - A Tale Of Two Broken Bond MarketsZH

All About Commodities In 6 Charts: From A(luminum) To Z(inc)ZH

The Markets’ Worst Kept SecretAsia Confidential
Lashing central bankers * The math of debt * Dreaded reform * Risk of another debt bust?

When have econ blogs changed your mind about something?Noahpinion

Great Graphic: Equity Flows DM >EMMarc to Market

Hypon Pauna: "Edessä on vaikeat ajat"KL
Kun Suomi putoaa kolmen A:n joukosta, niin pääperusteluina ovat ainakin seuraavat kolme asiaa: päättämättömyys kestävyysvajeen edessä, näköalattomuus kansainvälisen kilpailukyvyn ylläpitämiseksi ja asunto- ja infravarallisuuden arvonkehitysnäkymät.

Lomaraha – palkka tekemättömästä työstäPauli Vahtera / IL

Mies, joka rakensi Suomeen maailman tehokkaimman radiotiedustelunESS
Legendaarinen radiotiedustelija haudataan elokuussa SysmässäESS