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Wednesday, July 17

17th Jul - US Close: Ben's testimony nothing new

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Silver Slammed As Stocks And Bonds Slumber – ZH

Europe's banana republicTradingFloor
So the French President reckons France is on the verge of an economic recovery. Neil Staines, from the ECU Group, isn't convinced. He says that France is about to slip on a very large banana skin. And he's very concerned about contagion.

How Many European Recessions?Project Syndicate
…if these countries have been in the same recession for five years, the implication may be that the leaders have been doing the same wrong things throughout that period. That is hardly an insignificant difference.

Europe’s rich 'could face uprising similar to Peasants' Revolt'The Telegraph
(9-July) Europe’s rich Baby Boomers are behaving like the nobility in the Peasants’ Revolt, and could face an uprising by the younger generation if the situation doesn’t change, HSBC’s chief economist has warned.

Greece on the Brink: Athens May Need 10 Billion MoreSpiegel
Greek parliament on Wednesday is considering yet more public sector cuts. But even that might not be enough, according to a German newspaper report. With German elections pending, though, any immediate additional relief is unlikely.

UK quantitative easing? R.I.P.TradingFloor
Nick Beecroft: The release of the minutes from the Bank of England's MPC meeting two weeks ago makes plain that, whatever else may be on the agenda, the death knell for UK quantitative easing is sounding ever louder.

BOE Left Battling Perception that ‘No Action’ Means ‘Tightening’WSJ

United Kingdom: 2013 Article IV ConsultationIMF

Bernanke: bond tapering to begin later this year, but plan not presetReuters
Bernanke said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back its massive asset purchase program later this year, but left open the option of changing that plan in either direction if the economic outlook shifted.

Bernanke Says Fed’s Monetary Policy Isn’t on a ‘Preset Course’BB
Bernanke said the central bank’s asset purchases “are by no means on a preset course” and could be reduced more quickly or expanded as economic conditions warrant.

Bernanke Seeks to Divorce QE Tapering From Interest RatesBB
Bernanke will have a chance to use testimony to Congress today to drive home his message that winding down asset purchases won’t presage an increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate.

Bernanke's Full Prepared Remarks: "Asset Purchases Not On A Preset Course"ZH
Key Passages From Bernanke’s TestimonyWSJ

Nothing New from Bernanke, Wait for Q&AMarc to Market
As we do not see Bernanke breaking new ground in his prepared remarks, we would not be surprised to see the greenback recover.

Bernanke Is Reading From Same ScriptWSJ
To be fair to the Fed, its message that the reduction in bond-buying will be a slow process has been consistent.

Fed Acknowledges Some Excessive Risk Taking Sparked by Its PoliciesWSJ
The Fed acknowledged that there is some evidence its policies have led certain investors to take on excessive leverage, duration risk or other forms of risk in order to boost returns.

Return of the ‘D’ wordalphaville / FT
Most analysts are noting the return of dovish sentiment, not to mention the explicit re-emergence of the “D” word.

Bernanke: Broad Support on FOMC for 7% Jobless Rate Guidepost on QEWSJ

'Fed Chief Calls Congress Biggest Obstacle to Growth'Economist’s View
Here we are with an unemployment crisis, a huge output gap, and big infrastructure needs, record low interest rates, while Congress sits on its hands because conservatives will not agree to fund infrastructure, let alone government consumption spending.

Bernanke Takes a Dovish StanceTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Bernanke continues to inject uncertainty regarding the path of asset purchases, while at the same time creating more certainty about the path of interest rates.  Altogether, part of his ongoing efforts to minimize the tightening that occurred in the run-up and aftermathath to the last FOMC meeting.  But at the same time, he said the data remain broadly consistent with the path he outlined at the meeting, suggesting that the general policy path he outlined in June remains in play, which means beginning to wind down asset purchases later this year. 

Goldman's Bernanke Post-Mortem: "No Push Back On Tapering Expectations"ZH

The Return of Lawrence Summers, Mr. Spectacular FailureThe Nation
The guy who tops the list of those responsible for sabotaging the world’s economy is lobbying to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The Puzzling Return of Glass-SteagallMarginal Revolution
…doesn’t deal with the problems that created the financial crisis. If one had to sum the crisis up in one sentence it would be hard to do better than “a run on the shadow banking system.”

Analysis: Caution Injected Into Housing Markets – WSJ
Housing Starts Miss Most Since January 2007, Permits Have Biggest Miss In History – ZH
June Was A Rough Month For Housing Construction – The Capital Spectator
Huge Misses in Housing Starts and Building Permits – Bespoke
Two Measures of Inflation: Headline and Core Remain Below Fed Target – dshort

The IMF Provides Risk Scenarios for ChinaWSJ
The IMF is forecasting China's GDP will grow by a relatively optimistic 7.75% this year, but it acknowledges a number of risks.

China Engineers a Credit Crisis to Deleverage Shadow BankingEconoMonitor
No doubt there is real and financial pain in China right now, but perhaps some moral credit is owed to the Chinese leadership for deflating asset bubbles before they burst. Recent experience tells us that a sudden leverage deflation after a very long expansion would be far more painful and prolonged.

IMF Article IV Consultation: People’s Republic of ChinaIMF
Full pdf here.

"Asset price inflation" is not inflationNoahpinion

Bubbles ForeverProject Syndicate
In 2006, the largest global real-estate bubble in history imploded, and the collapse of a major worldwide stock-market bubble a year later triggered the global financial crisis. Although one might think that we have been living in a "post-bubble" world since then, talk of new bubbles keeps reappearing.

Kataisen perilliset: Kokoomuksen puheenjohtaja miettii jo luopumistaSK

Euroopan rikkaat "voivat joutua kansannousun kohteeksi"TE