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Friday, July 5

5th July - Special: US June Employment Report

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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195,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment RateCalculated Risk

Payrolls +195K Much Higher Than Expected; Underemployment Rate Soars To 14.3% - ZH

Live From New York! It’s Jobs Friday!WSJ

Data Analysis: Highlights from the June Jobs ReportWSJ

Private Payrolls: +202kThe Capital Spectator

195K New Jobs Added, But Unemployment Remains Unchanged at 7.6% - dshort

The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling a Recession: Updatedshort

Brightening jobs picture may draw Fed closer to taperingReuters
Job growth was stronger than expected in June and the employment count for the prior two months was revised higher, showing the economy on solid ground and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track to scale back its massive monetary stimulus later this year.

Instant View: Jobs growth stronger than expected in JuneReuters

U.S. Employers Added More Workers in June Than ForecastBB

Macro Digest: June US payrolls – as good as it getsTradingFloor
The US June payrolls were strong on the surface, but not as strong below the headline figures. Still, with the Fed pondering tapering, this was probably the best result for the markets.

Treasuries Slide as Dollar Rallies With Stocks on JobsBB
Treasuries sank, sending the 10-year yield to the highest since August 2011, while the dollar rallied and gold tumbled as faster-than-forecast jobs growth fueled bets the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its bond buying. U.S. stocks extended a weekly gain.

Dollar Posts New Leg Up on Favorable Employment ReportMarc to Market

The Market's Schizophrenic Reaction To PayrollsZH


Five Takeaways From the Jobs ReportWSJ

Employment Report: More Hiring, Wages Up, Still Weak Labor MarketCalculated Risk
Overall this was a solid report - especially with the upward revisions to April and May employment and the pickup in wage gains.  But the labor market is still weak and millions of people are unemployed or underemployed.

Economists React: Good Enough for the Fed to Pull BackWSJ

Better-than-Expected Employment Report, QE Tapering Likely in SeptemberZH
Goldman: We now expect QE to continue through Q2 2014 vs. our prior forecast of Q3 2014.


The June jobs report: continued slow growth, bought at a high costFabius Maximus
Strong months confirm the optimists; weak months confirm the pessimists. In fact the trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed — supported only (like the other developed nations) by massive multi-year fiscal and monetary stimulus.

No Manufacturing Jobs But More Waiters And Bartenders Than EverZH

Some Troubling Signs In June’s Jobs ReportWSJ
The number of Americans working part-time because they can’t find full-time jobs and the number who want jobs but have given up looking both jumped last month.

The June 2013 jobs report & the FedMoney Supply / FT
The jobs report fits the Fed’s optimistic economic scenario… However, there is a gap between payrolls and indicators of GDP growth… Higher participation could slow tapering and delay rate rises… The market is not reacting as the Fed’s models would predict… Underlying all this, the US economy seems a lot healthier

Establishment Survey Jobs +195K; Household Survey Jobs +160K; Part-Time Jobs +486,000; Unemployment Flat, U6 Unemployment +0.5Mish’s

The jobs report was pretty good! The market response isn't.Wonkblog / WP
The direction of the move was right. But the extent of the move seemed a little overdone; it’s hard to imagine that a single good payroll number contained any real useful information about the probability of an interest rate hike 18 months from now.

Real Hourly Wages and Hours Worked: More Signs of Encouragementdshort

A Solid But Not Spectacular Employment ReportTim Duy’s Fed Watch
But the Fed is only looking for solid at this point to justify winding down quantitative easing.  And time is running short to delay tapering.  I suspect that incoming data has more to do with future reductions in the pace of asset purchases rather than the date that those reductions will begin.  I suspect there will be little data between now and September of sufficient negative magnitude to dramatically alter the near-term path of policy.  


Strong job report for June - Fed tapering in SeptemberDanske Bank (pdf)

Non-farm payrolls increased by 195,000 in June and private payrolls rose 202,000. Both figures were higher than expected by consensus.

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, ObamaCalculated Risk

Bernanke Seen Sticking to QE Tapering Plan After Jobs ReportBB

Please Don't Be Satisfied With This Jobs ReportThe Atlantic