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Friday, March 13

13th Mar - EURUSD continues down

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Germany: Structural challenges and growing Euro bluesNordea
The German economy is doing fine right now with expected GDP growth between 1½% and 2% this year. Under the surface, however, there are several structural risks and challenges to longer-term growth. Politically, the battles about QE and with Greece indicate a growing unease in Germany about how things in Europe are developing. Germany has become a less compromising partner to deal with.

Nordics: Blue-eyed monetary policyNordea
The pressure on the three monetary policy regimes in the Nordic countries intensified at the beginning of 2015. In Denmark, and possibly also in Sweden, the pressure is expected to ease during the forecast horizon. In Norway, however, challenges are waiting ahead.

The Structural Reforms Bark but the Deficit Moves On - euinside
There is no doubt that the eurozone crisis is now in the past since the Commission and the Council have approved, without objections, the violations of fiscal rules to begin again. 

Germans Furious After Varoufakis/Tsipras Admit "Greece Will Never Repay"ZH

Greece and the Euro Area—Impasse or End Game?PIIE
Uncertainty and the UK electionFT
No-one can say with confidence, let alone certainty, what will happen afterwards.

Your updated sovereign-bank loopFT
The tone suggests that the ESRB would like to see a change in the regulatory regime although it is clearly a case of ‘Give me chastity, just not yet’

Is the ECB sacrificing reforms on the altar of inflation?Bruegel
QE reduces pressure on governments to engage in painful, but necessary, structural reforms?

Don’t Waste the ECB’s Gift to Finance and Budget MinistersPIIE
The windfall from the ECB should be put to sensible use. For Italy, that means reducing public debt, limiting the losses in human capital, and improving the structure of the state. For Germany, it means increasing physical capital accumulation.

ECB painted itself into a cornerNordea
Even though Draghi found the entire topic amusing, the ECB could easily run out of eligible German bonds to buy. In any case, the buying restrictions will push the central bank to buy bonds longer out the curve, adding downward pressure on long yields. The ECB may soon face a situation, where it will once again have to backtrack on its earlier pledges.

How The ECB Is Distorting Euro Money MarketsZH

Your updated sovereign-bank loop - FT
This is why the euro is collapsing - WaPo

US: Slow growth in Q1 but outlook still solidDanske Bank
We revise down our GDP growth forecast for Q1 to 1.7% q/q AR from 2.7% previously. For the year as a whole, we now expect GDP growth of 2.8%, down from 3.0%

US: countdown to lift-off – new Fed forecastNordea
In the context of easy policy from other central banks we believe the Fed’s tightening pace will be slightly slower than earlier anticipated. However, we continue to believe that markets underprice the extent of Fed tightening. We now see the (upper end of the) fed funds rate at 0.75% by end-2015 and 2.00% by end-2016. The odds of lift-off in June or September are seen as roughly equal.

SocGen Tries To Predict When The Next US Bear Market StartsZH

FX Watch – HKD peg to holdABN AMRO
Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Do You Still Think The Fed Is Behind the Curve? * WSJ Survey: Most Economists See Fed Raising Rates in June or September * Fed ‘Stress Tests’ Still Pose Puzzle to Banks * ECB Official Details First QE Purchases * Russia Cuts Interest Rates

Daily MacroWSJ
Despite the correction seen in U.S. stock prices earlier this week, global investors are still mostly upbeat about the outlook for equities. This doesn’t necessarily reflect a broad-based confidence in the outlook for the world economy. Rather, it is policy that has been driving money into stocks.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

ECB bond buying has reached EUR 9,8bn and will continue * The strong USD triggered profit-taking, and the risk seems to be more of it * Will 30 and 50-year euro swaps move below 1%? * Greece gets more ELA liquidity

Daily ShotTF
Eurozone benchmark yields continue sliding and are hitting record lows. Corporates are now collapsing too with some investors apparently content with negative yields. BRIC countries (excluding India) remain under pressure and although China looks fragile on fundamentals, the Shanghai Composite is firing on all pistons.

Euro Resumes Slide After Goldman Cuts Forecast, Expects Parity In 6 Months; Futures Flat

From the FloorTF
WTI prompt spread widens to $2/b plus as "upside remains limited," says Hansen * WTI could slip to $45.28/b with upside capped at $48.75/b * Gold falls for ninth consecutive day to break 42-year old record * Dollar strength continues to dominate commodities despite slight slip Thursday * Market sentiment starts to turn towards next week's FOMC meeting * EURUSD one-month vols oscillate wildly as intraday spot range hits 200 bps * Nikkei zooms above 19,000 for first time in nearly 15 years * European bonds rally stutters

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
China's dilemma - Dealing with past excesses and present needs simultaneously

Kuka pelkää negatiivista korkoa? | Venäjän keskuspankki pitää todennäköisesti ohjauskoron ennallaan | EKP osti kolmen ensimmäisen päivän aikana joukkolainoja 9,8 miljardilla eurolla

”Suomi nousee vain veronalennuksilla, euroon liittyminen virhe”HS
Björn Wahlroos: Suomen olisi ollut parempi pysyä markassaVerkkouutiset
Björn Wahlroos: Euroopan velkavuoret ovat pyramidihuijausYLE

Tässä on taloustieteen historian kymmenen parasta ideaHS

Sipilä: Jokainen suomalainen joutuu maksumieheksiYLE

Roger Wessman: Palkkojen jäädytys nollasummapeliäKL

Linkkejä Suomen ongelmista ja virheistäRoger Wessman

FT: Suomen talous vaikeuksissaSuomen Uutiset

Antti Rinne myönsi: Yhteisöveron laskeminen ei ole toiminutSuomen Uutiset

Ilmarisen tj: Yritysten kyky uudistua elinehto Suomen kilpailukyvylleVerkkouutiset

Kokoomus haluaa suomalaiselle teollisuudelle EU:n edullisimman sähkönVerkkouutiset

Danske Bank: Deflaatiokierteen mahdollisuutta ei voi sulkea poisVerkkouutiset

Slunga-Poutsalo:  Borg tarjoilee vääriä lääkkeitäVerkkouutiset
Slunga-Poutsalo: Potilas kuolee väärällä lääkitykselläSuomen Uutiset

Talouden olkinuket liekeissä Jouko Marttila

Kymmenen oikeasti loistavaa taloustieteen ideaaLibera

Vaihtotase ylijäämäinen, pääomaa vietiin Q4/2014 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui Q4/2014– Tilastokeskus
Rakennuskustannukset helmik. +0,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto Q4 +4,0% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma Q4 +0,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto kasvoi tammikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio helmik. -0,1% - Tilastokeskus