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Thursday, March 5

5th Mar - ECB-meeting provided the goods

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Growing discontent in Berlin with Juncker and his Commission – Open Europe

Euro inflation research No. 1 - Inflation to increase sharply this year – Danske Bank

Greece Struggles to Make Debt Math Work Amid Bailout Standoff – BB
IMF Director Admits: Greek Bailout Was "To Save German & French Banks"ZH

Introductory StatementECB
Monetary policy decisionsECB
March 2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections ECB


Decision on the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) ECB

Q&A on the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) ECB

Negative Interest Rates Test Technology at European BanksWSJ
Headaches emerge from Sweden to Spain; a snag for floating-rate debt

Euro Head Fake, Bounces Only to Sell-Off on DraghiMarc to Market

ECB bond-buying to start on March 9FT
Central bank revises up growth forecasts amids signs of accelerating recovery

ECB: Watch out, here we comeNordea
The ECB sounded optimistic that the easing measures it has announced are already having an effect. Among QE details, the most important ones were the fact that the deposit rate will pose a limit to which bonds the ECB will buy, and that the purchases will start on Monday. The ECB does not want to have the deciding role in Greece, but whether it wants or not, its role remains instrumental. The ECB thus introduced a soft floor on yields, but only a soft one

ECB raises growth forecasts, to start printing money next weekReuters

Pressure On The Euro Is Mounting — StrategistsWSJ

Global Bond Yields & Crude Tumble As EURUSD Tests 1.10ZH

Q&A And Terms And Conditions Of Europe's (First) QEZH

ECB meeting: Mario Draghi is upbeat but eurozone risks remainThe Guardian

5 Takeaways From Mario Draghi’s ECB News ConferenceWSJ

Stephen Pope: We will buy paper that yields minus 0.20%TF
A stunning increase in inflationary expectations * Gradually we get detail of the QE process * No waiver on Greek debt as collateral

The Eurozone Will Be Fixed When Bond Yields RiseWSJ

The ECB is finally ready to buy bonds on MondayDanske Bank

With perfect timing, ECB’s Draghi calls end to eurozone crisisFT

European Central Bank: Recovery Is StrengtheningNYT

Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power WSJ
Secret ‘Triangle Document’ gives control of big-bank regulation to committee

5 Things to Know About the Fed’s ‘Stress Tests’ WSJ

Auditing the Fed (or at least the staff forecasts) part 1 FT
Auditing the Fed (or at least the staff forecasts) part 2 FT

5 Things to Watch in the February Jobs Report – WSJ
Goldman February Payrolls Preview – Calculated Risk
Preview for February Employment Report – Calculated Risk

China Lowers Growth Goal to About 7% as Li Flags ChallengesBB

Is China’s 1929 moment coming?WaPo

Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nearsThe Telegraph
Unless China changes course, it is set to tighten fiscal policy by 5.5pc of GDP this year, five times Britain's austerity dose annually since the Lehman crisis

Volatility WatchNordea
The ECB is on tomorrow with little chance of new policy measures but a sound hope of QE-details. Vols are trading lower now than earlier in the year, however we still find much of the grid on the rich side. Short rates flirt with negative rates give opportunities in the option markets, in particular selling floors against swaptions. Going into the QE details, short expiry optionality on 30y swaps is a good place to be long.

Deflation poses central banks with an existential problemFT 

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Lawmakers Ought to Look to Tarullo, not Dudley, on Fed Supervision Failures * Yellen Urged ‘Bold Action” in 2009 * Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power * Fed’s Evans: Wait to Raise Rates in Early 2016 * China Lowers Growth Target to About 7%

Daily MacroWSJ
A downgraded official Chinese growth forecast contains far more information than the same from other countries. Few governments have as much invested in the forecast – or the tools to achieve it – as China’s. So Thursday’s cut in its forecast to 7% matters, not only to China but to the countries and producers who’ve become dependent on blockbuster Chinese growth to sustain their own exports and to prop up commodity prices.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

ECB to reveal at least some QE details * Rates range bound * USD strength on a broad basis

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Draghi Takes Center Stage

Daily ShotTF
Today's edition takes us back to Brazil, where a perfect storm of economic turmoil has sent the currency tumbling. If the Federal Reserve decides to hike interest rates in the near future, USDBRL looks set for a spike of historic proportions.

Euro Slides, Futures Flat Ahead Of Mario Draghi's Press Conference And Q€ Cheat Sheet

FX UpdateTF
It’s tempting to believe that we see a Euro bounce as today’s European Central Bank meeting will mark the end of the “expectation phase” of the ECB’s huge new QE programme. But at the same time, it is hard to cook up a hawkish surprise scenario here, so the euro may simply continue to melt lower after the meeting.

From the FloorTF
Be careful around the ECB meeting today, but there now seems little to stop EURUSD heading towards parity over the longer term. Meanwhile, Shanghai stocks deliver a big thumbs down to China's GDP growth prediction for 2015.

Daily NewsletterTF
Today's session lies in the shadow of today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls release in the US. These are the numbers that could wind up moving mountains as we head into the weekend – or at least markets.

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch FT
Pension problems: Two noteworthy efforts in US policy on retirement savings

Brasilian keskuspankki taistelussa inflaatiota vastaan | Elvytysaalto hyökyi Puolaan | Euroalueen vähittäiskaupan myynti kasvoi 1,1 prosenttia edelliskuusta

Mitä John Maynard Keynes olisi sanonut eurosta?HS

Ifo: Julkinen rahoitus vain lykkää Kreikan konkurssia – ulos eurostaVerkkouutiset

Keskusta ottaa ohjatUlkopolitiikka
Tutkijat UP-lehdessä: EU-politiikkaan voi tulla säröjä keskustahallituksessaVerkkouutiset
"Ei olisi lainkaan selvää, että Suomi kuuluisi enää läntisen integraation ytimeen."

Käteisen tuotto, deflaatio ja lamaRoger Wessman

TTIP: Keskustelutilaisuus investointisuojasta ja välimiesmenettelystäUM

Itävallassa loppui pankkitukiPeter Nyberg
EU:n uusia kriisinhallintasäännöksiä on juuri sovellettu Itävallassa tavalla, joka lisää toivoa kriisinhallinnan järkevästä hoidosta. Päätöksestä huolimatta on kuitenkin edelleen epätodennäköistä, että periaatteita sovellettaisiin myös laajempien kriisien yhteydessä.