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EUROPE
Euro
inflation research No. 1 - Inflation to increase sharply this year – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Greece Struggles to Make Debt Math Work
Amid Bailout Standoff – BB
IMF
Director Admits: Greek Bailout Was "To Save German & French
Banks" – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Introductory
Statement – ECB
Monetary
policy decisions – ECB
March
2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections – ECB
LIVE
COMMENTS:
Decision
on the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) – ECB
Q&A
on the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) – ECB
Negative
Interest Rates Test Technology at European Banks – WSJ
Headaches
emerge from Sweden to Spain; a snag for floating-rate debt
Euro
Head Fake, Bounces Only to Sell-Off on Draghi – Marc
to Market
ECB
bond-buying to start on March 9 – FT
Central
bank revises up growth forecasts amids signs of accelerating recovery
ECB:
Watch out, here we come – Nordea
The ECB
sounded optimistic that the easing measures it has announced are already having
an effect. Among QE details, the most important ones were the fact that the
deposit rate will pose a limit to which bonds the ECB will buy, and that the
purchases will start on Monday. The ECB does not want to have the deciding role
in Greece, but whether it wants or not, its role remains
instrumental. The ECB thus introduced a soft floor on yields, but only a soft
one
ECB
raises growth forecasts, to start printing money next week – Reuters
Pressure
On The Euro Is Mounting — Strategists – WSJ
Global
Bond Yields & Crude Tumble As EURUSD Tests 1.10 – ZH
ECB
meeting: Mario Draghi is upbeat but eurozone risks remain – The
Guardian
5
Takeaways From Mario Draghi’s ECB News Conference – WSJ
Stephen
Pope: We will buy paper that yields minus 0.20% – TF
A stunning
increase in inflationary expectations * Gradually we get detail of the QE
process * No waiver on Greek debt as collateral
The
Eurozone Will Be Fixed When Bond Yields Rise – WSJ
The ECB
is finally ready to buy bonds on Monday – Danske
Bank
With
perfect timing, ECB’s Draghi calls end to eurozone crisis – FT
European
Central Bank: Recovery Is Strengthening – NYT
UNITED STATES
Secret ‘Triangle
Document’ gives control of big-bank regulation to committee
5 Things
to Know About the Fed’s ‘Stress Tests’ – WSJ
Auditing
the Fed (or at least the staff forecasts) part 1 – FT
Auditing
the Fed (or at least the staff forecasts) part 2 – FT
EMPLOYMENT REPORT PREVIEW
5 Things to
Watch in the February Jobs Report – WSJ
Goldman
February Payrolls Preview – Calculated
Risk
Preview for
February Employment Report – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
Unless China changes course, it is set to
tighten fiscal policy by 5.5pc of GDP this year, five times Britain's austerity dose annually since the
Lehman crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11450691/Liquidity-evaporates-in-China-as-fiscal-cliff-nears.html
OTHER
Volatility
Watch – Nordea
The ECB is
on tomorrow with little chance of new policy measures but a sound hope of
QE-details. Vols are trading lower now than earlier in the year, however we
still find much of the grid on the rich side. Short rates flirt with negative
rates give opportunities in the option markets, in particular selling floors
against swaptions. Going into the QE details, short expiry optionality on 30y
swaps is a good place to be long.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Lawmakers Ought to Look to Tarullo, not Dudley, on Fed Supervision
Failures * Yellen Urged ‘Bold Action” in 2009 * Washington Strips New York
Fed’s Power * Fed’s Evans: Wait to Raise Rates in Early 2016 * China Lowers
Growth Target to About 7%
Daily
Macro – WSJ
A
downgraded official Chinese growth forecast contains far more information than
the same from other countries. Few governments have as much invested in the
forecast – or the tools to achieve it – as China’s. So Thursday’s cut in its
forecast to 7% matters, not only to China but to the countries and producers
who’ve become dependent on blockbuster Chinese growth to sustain their own
exports and to prop up commodity prices.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
ECB to
reveal at least some QE details * Rates range bound * USD strength on a broad
basis
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Draghi Takes Center Stage
Daily
Shot – TF
Today's
edition takes us back to Brazil, where a perfect storm of economic
turmoil has sent the currency tumbling. If the Federal Reserve decides to hike
interest rates in the near future, USDBRL looks set for a spike of historic
proportions.
US Open – ZH
Euro
Slides, Futures Flat Ahead Of Mario Draghi's Press Conference And Q€ Cheat
Sheet
FX
Update – TF
It’s
tempting to believe that we see a Euro bounce as today’s European Central Bank
meeting will mark the end of the “expectation phase” of the ECB’s huge new QE
programme. But at the same time, it is hard to cook up a hawkish surprise
scenario here, so the euro may simply continue to melt lower after the meeting.
From the
Floor – TF
Be careful
around the ECB meeting today, but there now seems little to stop EURUSD heading
towards parity over the longer term. Meanwhile, Shanghai stocks deliver a big thumbs down to
China's GDP growth prediction for 2015.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
Today's
session lies in the shadow of today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's nonfarm
payrolls release in the US. These are the numbers that could
wind up moving mountains as we head into the weekend – or at least markets.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch –
FT
Pension
problems: Two noteworthy efforts in US policy on retirement savings
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Brasilian keskuspankki taistelussa inflaatiota vastaan |
Elvytysaalto hyökyi Puolaan | Euroalueen vähittäiskaupan myynti kasvoi 1,1
prosenttia edelliskuusta
Mitä John Maynard Keynes olisi sanonut eurosta? – HS
Ifo: Julkinen rahoitus vain lykkää Kreikan konkurssia –
ulos eurosta – Verkkouutiset
Keskusta ottaa ohjat – Ulkopolitiikka
Tutkijat UP-lehdessä: EU-politiikkaan voi tulla säröjä
keskustahallituksessa – Verkkouutiset
"Ei olisi lainkaan selvää, että Suomi kuuluisi enää
läntisen integraation ytimeen."
Käteisen tuotto, deflaatio ja lama – Roger
Wessman
TTIP: Keskustelutilaisuus investointisuojasta ja
välimiesmenettelystä – UM
Itävallassa loppui pankkituki – Peter
Nyberg
EU:n uusia kriisinhallintasäännöksiä on juuri sovellettu
Itävallassa tavalla, joka lisää toivoa kriisinhallinnan järkevästä hoidosta.
Päätöksestä huolimatta on kuitenkin edelleen epätodennäköistä, että
periaatteita sovellettaisiin myös laajempien kriisien yhteydessä.