Here are
the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Weekly
Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Friday’s
Price Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Crude
Carnage & Hawkish Yellen Leave Dow In The Red For 2015
Succinct
summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
US
Schedule for Week –
Calculated
Risk
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
US job
market data: solid growth * German and euro inflation: import price driven
rebound * Japan Tankan: firming growth on weak yen
Economic
Calendar – Handelsbanken
Week
Ahead is Short but Eventful – Marc
to Market
World
Week Ahead – WSJ
U.S.
Economy Needs Winter to End
5 Things
to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Wall St
Week Ahead – Reuters
Stocks
likely to drift as investors await Fed, earnings
Weighing
the Week Ahead – A
Dash of Insight
Time for an
Economic Spring Thaw?
Weekly
Market Outlook – Moody’s
Weekly
Focus – Danske
Bank
Strategy – Danske
Bank
Europe
continues to deliver good news - other regions disappoint * Still positive on
risk assets based on global recovery and ample liquidity * Time to add to
periphery bonds * Limited upside to oil price as oil glut remains * EUR/USD to
go lower after correction
Macro
Weekly – Lucky losers
– ABN AMRO
There can
be little doubt: eurozone government bonds are very expensive. They will get
cheaper some day, although that may be quite a while away. Whenever that
happens, the holders will suffer losses. Who are they? And do their likely
future losses matter to them or the overall economy? This is a bizarre story. Meanwhile,
eurozone economic data continues to surprise positively. Growth is
accelerating.
Week
Ahead – Nordea
US data
will be very much in focus next week. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to
fall, reflecting that the factory sector has lost momentum in early 2015. Our
forecast for nonfarm payrolls (on Good Friday) is weaker than the recent trend
as we are looking for a lagged response to the stronger USD, bad weather and
supply chain disruptions. Euro-area inflation will likely remain negative
year-over-year in March.
Global
Outlook: Risk Control is Working – Berenberg
Low oil
prices: big boost for Western world, tough luck for Russia * US: consumers and
companies in good shape = solid growth * China: sufficient growth despite
slowing trend, risks well contained * Eurozone: oil and ECB to raise demand
growth as risks fade * Britain: solid recovery but mind the politics, Brexit
risk? * Tail risks: Grexit, euro politics, Putin starts war, emerging market
crash?
STOCKS
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat Pitch
The largely
trend-less environment of the past four months continues. Despite the fall this
week, US equities are not oversold and sentiment is still heady. This suggests
that a rally early in the week would likely fail. While April is one of the
best months of the year, the first half of the month has been weak. If this
pattern continues this year, there would likely be a more attractive entry
point mid-month.
CREDIT
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Euro
Rates Weekly: Bund bottlenecks – ABN AMRO
ECB’s QE
purchases are well ahead of schedule, while Mr Draghi sees no signs of shortage
* Shortage is unlikely but we think that scarcity is still on the cards * Available
stock of outstanding Bunds will decline by 15% this year * Net adjusted supply
will worsen later in 2015 because of continuous QE purchases of Bunds * Likelihood
of bottlenecks peaks in the Summer and in December * Scarcity varies within the
year and is also centred around bond redemptions
FOREX
FX Outlook
– Marc
to Market
Near-Term
Dollar Conviction Went MIA
FX 4
next week: Uncertain times for the US dollar – TF
John J
Hardy: USDJPY in flux after 1.1000 rejected * A reactive two-way stance seems
optimal *EURGBP consolidation may have overshot to the upside * NOK's failure
to show strength was surprising given oil recovery
FX
Weekly – Dollar still under pressure – ABN AMRO
The FOMC
monetary policy decision on 18 March has continued to have a negative effect on
the US dollar. Over recent days, though, the impact is easing. Another factor
that has resulted in a recovery in EUR/USD is stronger eurozone economic data.
Moreover, a deterioration in investor sentiment triggered higher oil prices and
demand for safe haven currencies. Currently, the US dollar is not among those
safe haven currencies. Subsequently, an improvement in investor sentiment gave
some room for the dollar to recover. Next week, US labour market data will take
centre stage. Strong data will continue to support the US dollar going forward
as well as underlining the outlook for further monetary policy divergence.
Global
FX Strategy: the ball is in the Fed's court – Nordea
In our
monthly FX publication we flag the risks of the change in trends - EUR/USD,
EUR/GBP, USD/JPY... The ECB QE is launched, and now the focus in the FX market
shifts to the Fed action - will they dare to hike in summer? In addition, we
feature our latest views on the Scandinavian currencies, where more easing is
being discussed.
EM FX:
USD strength pushes all down – Nordea
We still
believe EM FX is very much a EUR/USD game. Eight out of the ten EM currencies
we cover are weaker versus the USD year-to-date, while nine out of ten are
stronger versus the EUR. We believe this will be the case for a while going
forward. Any short-term relief coming from a rebound in the EUR/USD should be
used to prepare for renewed USD strength and EM weakness. Two EM currencies
stand out: RUB and BRL.
COMMODITIES
Precious
Metals weekly – Temporary recovery – ABN AMRO
Precious
metal prices have rallied strongly since the Fed…but their performance has been
uneven * Silver prices appear to be close to hitting the trough…but they are
not there yet…while the pressure on palladium prices is increasing
CALENDARS
Economic
Calendar – investing.com
Economic
Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri
– Nordnet
Global
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central
Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX