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Sunday, March 29

29th Mar - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Friday’s Price Monitor – Global Macro Monitor

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Crude Carnage & Hawkish Yellen Leave Dow In The Red For 2015

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg
US job market data: solid growth * German and euro inflation: import price driven rebound * Japan Tankan: firming growth on weak yen

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week’s AgendaHandelsbanken

Week Ahead is Short but EventfulMarc to Market

World Week AheadWSJ
U.S. Economy Needs Winter to End

5 Things to Watch on the Economic CalendarWSJ

Week Ahead is Short but EventfulMarc to Market

Global Central Banks CalendarWSJ

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Stocks likely to drift as investors await Fed, earnings

Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight
Time for an Economic Spring Thaw?

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Weekly FocusDanske Bank

StrategyDanske Bank
Europe continues to deliver good news - other regions disappoint * Still positive on risk assets based on global recovery and ample liquidity * Time to add to periphery bonds * Limited upside to oil price as oil glut remains * EUR/USD to go lower after correction

Macro Weekly – Lucky losersABN AMRO
There can be little doubt: eurozone government bonds are very expensive. They will get cheaper some day, although that may be quite a while away. Whenever that happens, the holders will suffer losses. Who are they? And do their likely future losses matter to them or the overall economy? This is a bizarre story. Meanwhile, eurozone economic data continues to surprise positively. Growth is accelerating.

Week AheadNordea
US data will be very much in focus next week. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to fall, reflecting that the factory sector has lost momentum in early 2015. Our forecast for nonfarm payrolls (on Good Friday) is weaker than the recent trend as we are looking for a lagged response to the stronger USD, bad weather and supply chain disruptions. Euro-area inflation will likely remain negative year-over-year in March.

Global Outlook: Risk Control is WorkingBerenberg
Low oil prices: big boost for Western world, tough luck for Russia * US: consumers and companies in good shape = solid growth * China: sufficient growth despite slowing trend, risks well contained * Eurozone: oil and ECB to raise demand growth as risks fade * Britain: solid recovery but mind the politics, Brexit risk? * Tail risks: Grexit, euro politics, Putin starts war, emerging market crash?

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch

The largely trend-less environment of the past four months continues. Despite the fall this week, US equities are not oversold and sentiment is still heady. This suggests that a rally early in the week would likely fail. While April is one of the best months of the year, the first half of the month has been weak. If this pattern continues this year, there would likely be a more attractive entry point mid-month.

Euro rates updateNordea

Euro Rates Weekly: Bund bottlenecksABN AMRO
ECB’s QE purchases are well ahead of schedule, while Mr Draghi sees no signs of shortage * Shortage is unlikely but we think that scarcity is still on the cards * Available stock of outstanding Bunds will decline by 15% this year * Net adjusted supply will worsen later in 2015 because of continuous QE purchases of Bunds * Likelihood of bottlenecks peaks in the Summer and in December * Scarcity varies within the year and is also centred around bond redemptions

FX Outlook – Marc to Market
Near-Term Dollar Conviction Went MIA

FX 4 next week: Uncertain times for the US dollarTF
John J Hardy: USDJPY in flux after 1.1000 rejected * A reactive two-way stance seems optimal *EURGBP consolidation may have overshot to the upside * NOK's failure to show strength was surprising given oil recovery

FX Weekly – Dollar still under pressureABN AMRO
The FOMC monetary policy decision on 18 March has continued to have a negative effect on the US dollar. Over recent days, though, the impact is easing. Another factor that has resulted in a recovery in EUR/USD is stronger eurozone economic data. Moreover, a deterioration in investor sentiment triggered higher oil prices and demand for safe haven currencies. Currently, the US dollar is not among those safe haven currencies. Subsequently, an improvement in investor sentiment gave some room for the dollar to recover. Next week, US labour market data will take centre stage. Strong data will continue to support the US dollar going forward as well as underlining the outlook for further monetary policy divergence.

Global FX Strategy: the ball is in the Fed's courtNordea
In our monthly FX publication we flag the risks of the change in trends - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY... The ECB QE is launched, and now the focus in the FX market shifts to the Fed action - will they dare to hike in summer? In addition, we feature our latest views on the Scandinavian currencies, where more easing is being discussed.

EM FX: USD strength pushes all downNordea
We still believe EM FX is very much a EUR/USD game. Eight out of the ten EM currencies we cover are weaker versus the USD year-to-date, while nine out of ten are stronger versus the EUR. We believe this will be the case for a while going forward. Any short-term relief coming from a rebound in the EUR/USD should be used to prepare for renewed USD strength and EM weakness. Two EM currencies stand out: RUB and BRL.

Precious Metals weekly – Temporary recoveryABN AMRO
Precious metal prices have rallied strongly since the Fed…but their performance has been uneven * Silver prices appear to be close to hitting the trough…but they are not there yet…while the pressure on palladium prices is increasing

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

Global Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX