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Tuesday, March 24

24th Mar - PMIs show divergences

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No democracy without political unionvoxeurop

Gideon Rachman: Growth alone will not stabilise EuropeFT
Fear of immigration and anger at elite corruption, as well as austerity, bolster extreme politics

UK: May election risks derailing GBPNordea
The UK general election taking place on 7 May is approaching. It will mark a paradigm shift from two parties to a multi-party government. If the Conservatives succeed and the UKIP joins, the summer 2015 may be hot with the Brexit risks – big headwind to GBP.

UK approaching deflation – Danske Bank
UK inflation falls to new record low – Nordea

5 Takeaways From Angela Merkel’s Meeting With Alexis Tsipras – WSJ
Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece’s Creditors – BB
Exclusive: Greece to run out of cash by April 20 without fresh aid-source – Reuters
Soros Says Greece Now Lose-Lose Game After Being Mishandled – BB

The ultimate QE boostCrédit Agricole
The QE-induced loosening in monetary and financial conditions has the potential to boost Eurozone inflation and GDP growth by up to 1 ppt and 1.5 ppt, respectively, within the next two years.

The confidence effects of fiscal consolidationsECB
ECB Paper Largely Backs Europe’s Austerity StrategyWSJ

U.S. consumer prices rebound, underlying inflation firming – Reuters
Core CPI supports Fed impatience – Nordea
Consumer Prices Rise Most Since May 2014 – ZH

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Stan Fischer Sure Would Like to Get Monetary Policy Back to Normal * Fed’s Fischer Supports Foreign Stimulus Efforts * Fed’s Williams: Mid-Year Will Be Time To Start Rate Hike Debate * U.S. Regulators Find ‘Shortcomings’ in Living Wills of 3 Foreign Banks * ECB to Continue Buying Debt Until Inflation Stabilizes

Daily MacroWSJ
Whereas the eurozone manufacturing sector showed gains, according to the latest “flash” purchasing managers survey from Markit, China’s dropped below 50 again.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
The ECB is running ahead of schedule in its public sector purchase programme * Regional election in Andalusia confirms that Spain’s political landscape has changed * Fed Vice-Chairman Fischer says lift off before end of this year, but no steady path afterwards

Euro rates updateNordea

No Greek breakthrough * Weak US CPI expected * More Chinese easing to come * Feds Stan Fischer said economic developments will guide pace and extent of increases * Intra-Euro spread convergence takes a breather * EUR helped by ECB talk

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Ten Things You Need to Know

Daily ShotTF
Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is approaching the pre-2008 peak, but higher gasoline prices could dampen it. PMIs in China as well as Japan are in contraction mode again. However, indices are doing pretty well.

Futures At Overnight Highs On China PMI Miss, Europe PMI Beat

FX UpdateTF
EURUSD is looking at 1.1000 and possibly 1.1100 if we get a weak US CPI release today from the US, after last week’s FOMC meeting increased focus on inflation levels. Elsewhere, weak data out of China overnight failed to hold back the rally of the Antipodeans overnight.

From the FloorTF
Dollar facing "two-way risk" ahead of US CPI * Negative print could push EURUSD beyond 1.10 to test of 1.11 * FX Options illiquidity worsens in one-month EURUSD, JPYUSD * China PMI miss sends Asian equities down across the board * Corporate bonds stymied as "no breakthrough" on Greece in Berlin * WTI crude stuck in $44-48/b range as downside risk remains ever-present * Copper spike likely to give way as "fundamentals not supportive” * Gold upside capped at $1,193/oz with potential move to $1,173

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT

On the EURGlobal Macro Trading

Euro in Past Bear Markets Marc to Market

Robert Skidelsky: Messed-Up MacroProject Syndicate
As a Keynesian, I firmly believe that market economies need to be stabilized by policy. But Keynesians have to face the uncomfortable truth that the success of stabilization policies may depend on the business community having Keynesian expectations. They need the confidence fairy to be on their side.

Guide to whether or not a robot will take your jobWaPo

Global Asset Allocation ShiftsBIS
We show that global asset reallocations of U.S. fund investors obey a strong factor structure, with two factors accounting for more than 90% of the overall variation. The first factor captures switches between U.S. bonds and equities. The second reflects reallocations from U.S. to international assets.

China PMI Decline suggests Q1 growth could decline below 7% y/y – Danske Bank
China Lands Hard, PMI Contraction, Employment Worst Since Lehman – ZH
China PMI much below expectations – Nordea
Euro area: Growth pace picks up – Nordea
Germany Lifts Euro-Area Economy as Stimulus Put in Action – BB
EZ PMIs confirm our view of stronger GDP growth in 2015 – Danske Bank
EZ recovery strengthens while political challenges remain – Nordea
U.S. factory activity inches up in March – Reuters
US PMI 'Survey' Defies Hard Data, Jumps To 5-Month Highs – ZH
Euro zone and U.S. manufacturing expand, China struggles – Reuters

Kiinteistösektorin hyytyminen painaa Kiinan ostopäällikköindeksiä | Saksan talouselämä lopetti synkistelyn | Draghi puhui Euroopan parlamentissa

Puppua, puheenjohtaja SipiläIS

Pauli Vahtera: Vähemmän kulutusta, enemmän hyvää oloa – 9 miljardin säästölistaIL

Ikävät ajat tulossaPeter Nyberg

Teollisuuden tuottajahinnat helmik. -1,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Helmikuun työttömyysaste 10,1% – Tilastokeskus