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EUROPE
Guntram
Wolff responds to Jean-Claude Juncker
Impact
of structural reforms in the Eurozone: Firm-level data – vox
The shallow
growth response to Eurozone rebalancing policies could point towards structural
impediments. To uncover such impediments and design effective structural
reforms, it is necessary to focus on the path from micro behaviour to macro
outcomes. This column argues that firm-level data from the CompNet database can
shed light on the impacts of structural reforms.
Italian
Bad Debt Hits Record $197 Billion – ZH
Bank
Lending Contracts For Unprecedented 33 Consecutive Months
France comes up short on its budget
deficit – FT
Europe is troubled by its imbalances. These
are not just the fault of smaller, deficit countries, and they should not be
the only ones under censure. Dual standards fray the already weak fabric of
European solidarity. “Too big to fine” is just as corrosive to the eurozone as “too
big to fail” has been in banking.
Why
Irish Eyes Are Smiling – WSJ
After years
of economic doldrums, there is finally some reason for optimism - but it’s not
all clover and rainbows.
Riksbank
Deputy Governor Jansson again tries to defend the indefensible – Lars
Svensson
Greece Faces Cash Crunch This Friday
Without "Plan A Or Plan B" – ZH
Dijsselbloem
Says Capital Controls May Help Avert Grexit – BB
UNITED STATES
Aside from
US labour market statistics, US data has ranged from awful to horrible (over
the past couple of months, begging the question why this is so. There are
several drivers of recent data weakness. The Fed’s balance sheet policies (the
tapering of QE3) may be one. Quantitative Tightening suggest more USD strength
around the time of lift-off.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed Forward
Guidance: A Look Back – WSJ
Fed
Preview: What You Need to Know – Marc
to Market
Anticipating
the Fed’s meeting – FT
5 Things to
Watch in the Feds March Meeting – WSJ
ASIA
In the past
three decades China has gone through an incredible
transformation from a small closed economy to the world’s largest exporter and
commodity consumer. The economy has witnessed incomparably high growth, but
this is no longer the case. In the last three years Chinese demand has slowed.
The deceleration reflects structural changes as well as a different attitude
regarding the growth model. China has entered phase three of its
development and will face decades of structural slowdown.
BoJ
inflation promise comes unstuck – FT
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hannon’s
Take: Can The Fed Go It Alone? * Broadest Unemployment Measure ‘Less Rosy’ * ECB’s
Draghi Sees Eurozone Recovery * Bank of Japan Sees ‘Zero Percent’ Inflation
Ahead * Indonesia Opts Out of Rate-Cut Rush
Daily
Macro – WSJ
As global
markets enter the waiting game for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on
Wednesday, the dollar has finally softened a bit against the euro and most of
its other major trading partners. Signs that deflation pressures eased in Europe and that German economic sentiment
is holding up also help to bolster the euro.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Fed set to
remove ‘patience’, but inflation outlook key for June rate hike * We think that
the Fed’s view on unemployment remains solid, view on long term inflation
unchanged * ECB running ahead of targets for purchases in first few days of QE
Eye-Opener – Nordea
BoJ stays
put as expected * ECB QE buying on track * USD hit by bad news
Daily
Shot – TF
Oil's
slippery road ahead * The US lumber industry is in trouble * Brazil's 5-year government bond yield
rises above 13.5% * Investors await 'bazooka' stimulus from Beijing
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Schäuble:
New Greek government has again destroyed trust * Cameron: Slim chance of
concluding EU renegotiation inside 2015 * Draghi: Eurozone requires “quantum
leap in institutional convergence” * Merkel: Europe should maintain sanctions on Russia * The EU’s Court of Auditors raises
questions over €315bn Juncker investment plan
US Open – ZH
WTI Slumps
To New Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Fears Loom
From the
Floor – TF
Markets are
relatively calm ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting but oil prices are still
under pressure and so is platinum. In Asia, equities are up on thin volumes, but not so
in China, where price increases came with high
turnover. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing, meanwhile, is
weighing on bonds.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Expect a
purely political Budget: Osborne's promises tomorrow only matter until election
da
OTHER
FX
Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Draghi +
Yellen = EUR/USD parity
How Far
Will the Euro Fall?
– Project
Syndicate
As we know
from decades of Japanese and Swiss experience, selling a low-interest-rate
currency simply to chase higher US yields is often a costly mistake.
The
dollar is rising faster than any time in the last 40 years – WaPo
US warns
of credibility threat without IMF reform – FT
IMF
warns of emerging markets instability – FT
On the
limits of negative rates – FT
Stock
market valuation cheap or expensive? – Cam
Hui
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Sinisilmäistä rahapolitiikkaa | Markkinoilla puhutaan
uusista Venäjän-vastaisista pakotteista | Japanin keskuspankki ei ilmoittanut
uusista toimista
Virkamiesnäkemys Suomen haasteista tulevalle
hallituskaudelle valmistui – VN
Kansliapäälliköt piirtävät synkkää tilannekuvaa Suomen
taloudesta – HS
Kiander kuittaa Vartiaiselle: Kolmannes työikäisistä ei
ole töissä – KL
Maahanmuuttajatko rikollisia? – Tämä
Päivä