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Tuesday, March 17

17th Mar - Eyes on Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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European Monetary UnionBruegel
Guntram Wolff responds to Jean-Claude Juncker

Impact of structural reforms in the Eurozone: Firm-level datavox
The shallow growth response to Eurozone rebalancing policies could point towards structural impediments. To uncover such impediments and design effective structural reforms, it is necessary to focus on the path from micro behaviour to macro outcomes. This column argues that firm-level data from the CompNet database can shed light on the impacts of structural reforms.

Italian Bad Debt Hits Record $197 BillionZH
Bank Lending Contracts For Unprecedented 33 Consecutive Months

France comes up short on its budget deficitFT
Europe is troubled by its imbalances. These are not just the fault of smaller, deficit countries, and they should not be the only ones under censure. Dual standards fray the already weak fabric of European solidarity. “Too big to fine” is just as corrosive to the eurozone as “too big to fail” has been in banking.

Why Irish Eyes Are SmilingWSJ
After years of economic doldrums, there is finally some reason for optimism - but it’s not all clover and rainbows.

Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson again tries to defend the indefensibleLars Svensson

Greece Faces Cash Crunch This Friday Without "Plan A Or Plan B"ZH
Dijsselbloem Says Capital Controls May Help Avert GrexitBB

Global: is US data weak because of the Fed?Nordea
Aside from US labour market statistics, US data has ranged from awful to horrible (over the past couple of months, begging the question why this is so. There are several drivers of recent data weakness. The Fed’s balance sheet policies (the tapering of QE3) may be one. Quantitative Tightening suggest more USD strength around the time of lift-off.

Fed Forward Guidance: A Look Back – WSJ
Fed Preview: What You Need to Know – Marc to Market
Anticipating the Fed’s meeting – FT
5 Things to Watch in the Feds March Meeting – WSJ

China 3.0: Decades of structural slowdownNordea
In the past three decades China has gone through an incredible transformation from a small closed economy to the world’s largest exporter and commodity consumer. The economy has witnessed incomparably high growth, but this is no longer the case. In the last three years Chinese demand has slowed. The deceleration reflects structural changes as well as a different attitude regarding the growth model. China has entered phase three of its development and will face decades of structural slowdown.

China wants to get off its fiscal slideFT
Japan - BoJ signals no imminent easingDanske Bank
BoJ inflation promise comes unstuckFT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: Can The Fed Go It Alone? * Broadest Unemployment Measure ‘Less Rosy’ * ECB’s Draghi Sees Eurozone Recovery * Bank of Japan Sees ‘Zero Percent’ Inflation Ahead * Indonesia Opts Out of Rate-Cut Rush

Daily MacroWSJ
As global markets enter the waiting game for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, the dollar has finally softened a bit against the euro and most of its other major trading partners. Signs that deflation pressures eased in Europe and that German economic sentiment is holding up also help to bolster the euro.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily ABN AMRO
Fed set to remove ‘patience’, but inflation outlook key for June rate hike * We think that the Fed’s view on unemployment remains solid, view on long term inflation unchanged * ECB running ahead of targets for purchases in first few days of QE

BoJ stays put as expected * ECB QE buying on track * USD hit by bad news

Daily ShotTF
Oil's slippery road ahead * The US lumber industry is in trouble * Brazil's 5-year government bond yield rises above 13.5% * Investors await 'bazooka' stimulus from Beijing

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Schäuble: New Greek government has again destroyed trust * Cameron: Slim chance of concluding EU renegotiation inside 2015 * Draghi: Eurozone requires “quantum leap in institutional convergence” * Merkel: Europe should maintain sanctions on Russia * The EU’s Court of Auditors raises questions over €315bn Juncker investment plan

WTI Slumps To New Cycle Lows As Iran Supply Fears Loom

From the FloorTF
Markets are relatively calm ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting but oil prices are still under pressure and so is platinum. In Asia, equities are up on thin volumes, but not so in China, where price increases came with high turnover. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing, meanwhile, is weighing on bonds.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Expect a purely political Budget: Osborne's promises tomorrow only matter until election da

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Draghi + Yellen = EUR/USD parity

How Far Will the Euro Fall?Project Syndicate
As we know from decades of Japanese and Swiss experience, selling a low-interest-rate currency simply to chase higher US yields is often a costly mistake.

The dollar is rising faster than any time in the last 40 yearsWaPo

US warns of credibility threat without IMF reformFT

IMF warns of emerging markets instabilityFT

On the limits of negative ratesFT

Stock market valuation cheap or expensive? Cam Hui

Sinisilmäistä rahapolitiikkaa | Markkinoilla puhutaan uusista Venäjän-vastaisista pakotteista | Japanin keskuspankki ei ilmoittanut uusista toimista

Virkamiesnäkemys Suomen haasteista tulevalle hallituskaudelle valmistuiVN
Kansliapäälliköt piirtävät synkkää tilannekuvaa Suomen taloudestaHS

Kiander kuittaa Vartiaiselle: Kolmannes työikäisistä ei ole töissäKL

Maahanmuuttajatko rikollisia?Tämä Päivä