Google Analytics

Saturday, March 21

21st Mar - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Friday’s Price MonitorGlobal Macro Monitor

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Quad-Witching Thriller: Oil, S&P, Nasdaq Soar As Bond Yields, Dollar Tumble On Economic Gloom

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic Calendar – Berenberg

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week’s AgendaHandelsbanken

World Week AheadWSJ
Searching for the Right Reading of Last Week’s FOMC

Week Ahead – ZH

5 Things to Watch on the Economic CalendarWSJ

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Investors eye data as stocks approach records

Top economic events - Reuters

Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight

The Quest for New Worries
Global Week AheadBB

U.S. Home Data, Greece, Ghani, Nigeria

Europe’s Week AheadWSJ

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Weekly FocusDanske Bank
Euro area survey indicators are expected to indicate stronger growth. Lending figures should improve and later be boosted by the liquidity from the ECB’s QE * US inflation data will be in focus, as a precondition for a Fed rate hike is confidence that inflation will move back to its 2% objective * UK and Japanese inflation should decline, but we expect the Bank of England will
hike despite low inflation and that Bank of Japan will not step up its easing soon * Chinese manufacturing PMI will be in focus as there is a substantial gap between the hard economic data and the manufacturing PMI.

The Week AheadHandelsbanken
US: Core CPI up 0.2 percent in February * China: PMI will likely confirm weak start to 2015
Eurozone: PMI still on the rise * Sweden: Likely uptick in NIER's March survey; retail sales growth to moderate * Norway: Small changes to unemployment; retail sales trend is flat, at best; somewhat lower credit growth

Macro Weekly – Snail-paced Fed rate hikesABN AMRO
The Fed meeting re-assured investors with the signal that although interest rates will head higher, they will do so at a slow pace. Indeed, the projections of the FOMC imply a much slower rate hike cycle than seen historically. This partly reflects the surge of the dollar, which is doing some of the Fed’s job for it. We have made some changes to our forecasts. We now expect the Fed to start raising rates in September rather than June. In addition, our EUR/USD forecast has been revised lower, while our eurozone GDP forecast has been revised higher.

Week Ahead: Continued headwinds for the Chinese economyNordea
Next week offers a range of interesting data points, but no major central bank events. We expect US headline inflation to remain at -0.1% y/y. Chinese flash PMI will likely suggest continued headwinds for the Chinese economy. Flash PMIs and the Ifo index will reflect the ongoing gentle pick up in the Euro area. In Sweden and Norway focus will be on retail sales.

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch

Strong price and breadth suggest the uptrend from the March low has further to go. A dip early in the week is a high probability buy set up. But gains from here are likely to be short lived; nibble traders may want to sell into strong gains on the expectation of weakness over the next month.

Rates: Global curves are collidingNordea
Recent months and weeks have been characterized by massive falls in EUR rates and much flatter curves. The main driver is obvious, but slope levels in the long end are now approaching those in the UK and US. The question then is, are we there yet on 30Y EUR swap rates? We think it’s very close at the very least.

Euro Rates Weekly: Why scarcity of AAAs is getting worseABN AMRO
We update our calculations and conclude that scarcity could be even worse than we expected * By decreasing its universe of eligible agency bonds, the ECB will need to buy more govie bonds * Impact of ECB purchases is most significant for AAA countries, like Germany and the Netherlands * Scarcity could become more acute as investors could hold on to current investment holdings * Scarcity could lead to shortage, but the ECB will change the QE rules before that happens

Euro rates updateNordea

FX OutlookMarc to Market

The Dollar's Near-Term Vulnerability is an Opportunity for Medium and Long Term Investors
FX 4 next week: US CPI the watershed for dollarTF
It's difficult to say with any certainty that the dollar rally has petered out after this week's FOMC but next Tuesday's CPI could provide a rallying point. Elsewhere, the scandies are prominent, JPY weakness might finally come through and there is an interesting Cable set up.

FX Weekly – EUR/USD to 0.95 this yearABN AMRO
The US dollar sold off aggressively after the Fed, followed by a stunning recovery. We have adjusted our Fed view and most of our FX forecasts. We expect the Fed to start rising rates in September. We also now expect the federal funds rate will rise to 0.75% at year-end 2015 and to 2.25% at year-end 2016. This is a slower pace than previously expected. Nevertheless given the momentum behind the dollar and ongoing monetary policy divergence we have revised our EUR/USD forecasts for this year lower. In contrast, we now expect a recovery of the euro in 2016. This is because stronger eurozone economic recovery and pick-up inflation will probably result in financial markets starting to price in a tapering from ECB QE next year.

Precious Metals weekly – No change in viewABN AMRO
Large price swings in precious metals before and after the Fed meeting * Adjustment in Fed and US dollar views have not led to changes in precious metals price forecasts * Gold will move lower in 2015 and 2016 because of higher US rates, US dollar and positive sentiment… * …while platinum, silver and palladium will remain under pressure in the near term followed by recovery

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

Global Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX