Google Analytics

Thursday, March 19

19th Mar - More post-Fed, EURUSD's roundtrip

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Positive buzz about Europe is hard to defendFT
 ‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro and strong dollar

The whys and hows of a single market for Europe - Bruegel
Popular parties blight Rajoy’s electoral fortunes - FT
Juncker plan not a route to boosting recoveryEuropp / LSE
While it has been portrayed by some observers as a route to helping the Eurozone’s recovery, it will require far more than the Juncker plan to stimulate growth in Europe’s ailing economies.

SNB keeps hands off rates - but keen to touch CHF still - Danske Bank
Riksbank QE should hold the krona back, but the Riksbank is fighting gravityNordea
The Riksbank is scared ECB QE will weigh on EUR/SEK. The Riksbank's 30bn QE expansion should be enough to hold the SEK back somewhat until May. We expect the Riksbank will have to launch further stimulus. In a sense however, the Riksbank is fighting gravity: the weaker the krona the harder it will be to prevent it from strengthening

Greece and creditors bicker ahead of summit – FT
Greek miss the link between sovereignty and solvency – Marc to Market
After Pensions, Greece Raids Utilities; Bonds Plunge As Bank Run Accelerates – ZH
A tale of floods and dams – Bruegel

FI investor survey: views on impact of QEABN AMRO
ECB appears to have succeeded in limiting deflation expectations * Bond yields expected to remain low * About half of investors are planning to change their positioning on QE * Majority of investors see value in riskier credits * Vast majority of participants expect a reduction of liquidity * Two-thirds of investors see asset price bubbles as the main negative side effect of QE

Economic Bulletin 2/2015ECB
The 2015 macroeconomic imbalance procedureECB
Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations Nov 2014-Jan 2015ECB

ECB Makes Life Tough For Its NeighborsWSJ

FOMC members now project September liftoffDanske Bank
FOMC update: We push the first rate hike from June to September Danske Bank

John J Hardy: dovish kneejerk, but how much follow through? TF
The FOMC statement and materials were dovish and dollar bearish * There is plenty of emphasis on keeping all its rate hike options open * The impact on the dollar may be limited until inflation and other data is available

Max McKegg: USD bulls run for cover after FOMC statementTF
Traders caught short on EURUSD as Federal Reserve delays interest rate lift-off * Money markets still see a good chance of a September rate hike * US dollar rally having some influence on Fed's analysis

FOMC DecisionShort Side of Long
US Dollar is extremely overbought and sentiment overly bullish * Inflation expectations are at levels where Fed remains dovish

A loss of patienceThe Economist

The Fed won’t be ‘patient’ anymore. Here’s what that really meansWaPo

Neil Staines: Tsunami in a tea cup?TF
Fed earthquake causes tsunami in FX markets * US monetary policy retains a firmly hawkish bias *Significant upside potential for GBP

The Fed Turns Gloomier on the Supply SideWSJ

Connect These Dots: What Worries the Fed?WSJ

The Fed Versus Price StabilityProject Syndicate
There is a big difference between the US Federal Reserve’s mandate to maintain “stable prices” – as enunciated in the Federal Reserve Act – and the Fed’s self-selected target of 2% annual inflation. So how is it that policymakers have managed to substitute the latter for the former?

Chicago Fed: Fed Should Wait Longer to Raise Rates WSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed’s “Dot Plot” Becomes Window to Its Soul * Fed Opens Door to Rate Increase but Remains Cautious on Growth * Fed Officials Trim Back Estimates of Interest Rate Rises Amid Big Forecast Changes * U.S. Regulators to Examine Leveraged Loans More Frequently * ECB Says Banks Borrowed EUR97.8 Billion in Latest 4-Year Loan Installment

Daily MacroWSJ
As the dust settles from one of the wildest sessions in currency markets in years, the dollar appears to have regained much of the ground it lost Wednesday in the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s more-dovish-than-expected policy statement.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed moving closer to pulling the rate trigger Massive downward pressure on US yields EUR/SEK to correct lower

Market Mistakes Balanced Fed for Dovish Fed - Marc to Market 
Daily ShotTF
While forex markets were sent reeling by yesterday's seemingly hawkish (but actually dovish) FOMC statement, the move seen in crude oil remained fairly muted. Elsewhere, Sweden continues its ride aboard the accommodation train and Ukraine heads from bad to worse.

Dollar Regains Most Of Yesterday's "Flash Crash" Losses. Oil Resumes Slide; 10Y Under 2%

From the FloorTF
USD rallies after post-FOMC falls * 'Stay long the US dollar' * Asia stocks up after Fed meeting * US 10-year Treasury yields head below 2% again * Low fuel costs helps FedEx beat expectations * Nintendo stock jumps again
Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT 
Osborne's mastery of political budgets: Instead of electoral bribes, chancellor frames the campaign

Why did rich-world deficits start exploding around 1980?Noah Smith
The proximate cause was big tax cuts, without any offsetting spending cuts. The beast was not starved, and tax cuts did not pay for themselves. But what was the political-economic cause? I have a theory.

Emerging Markets Briefer - March 2015Danske Bank

What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?vox

Fed muutti ennakoivaa viestintäänsä | Riksbank leikkasi yllättäen ohjauskorkoa | Englannin keskuspankki ei aio kiirehtiä rahapolitiikkansa normalisoimista

VM:n virkamiesraportti talouspolitiikan lähtökohdistaVM
Arvioidun hitaan kasvun oloissa julkisen talouden velkasuhteen taittaminen laskuun edellyttäisi noin 6 miljardin euron (3 %/BKT) sopeutustoimia vuoteen 2019 mennessä. Tämän mittaluokan sopeutustoimilla valtiontalous ja kuntatalous palaisivat lähelle tasapainoa.

Rahaministeriö löi pöytään karmeat talousluvutVerkkouutiset
Julkisen talouden sopeutustarve on kohonnut kuuteen miljardiin euroon ja kestävyysvaje on revennyt kymmeneksi miljardiksi euroksi.

Julkisen sektorin leikkaustarpeen suuruus ja laatu - Markus Bunders
Kansankodin kuolinvuoteellaSuomen Perusta
Suomella viime hetket välttää Ruotsin virheet maahanmuutossaSuomen Uutiset
Simon Elo tarkastelee monikulttuurisen Ruotsin vaiettuja varjopuolia. Ennen kuin seuraamme maahanmuutossa Ruotsin viitoittamaa tietä, on syytä tarkastella maahanmuuton vaikutuksia ruotsalaiselle yhteiskunnalle.
Huonoja uutisia, hyviä neuvojaAlex Stubb
Stubb Suomen julkisesta taloudesta: Olen äärimmäisen huolissaniYLE

Juhana Vartiainen närkästyi: ”Jos savolainen saa työpaikan, ei se ole pois karjalaiselta” - SK
Työperäisen maahanmuuton vastustaminen on vanhanaikaista säännöstelyajattelua, sanoo VATT:n ylijohtaja.