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Monday, March 9

9th March - Another Eurogroup

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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“The Eurozone has become a glorified debtors’ prison”Europp / LSE
With no lasting solution yet found for dealing with Greek debt, and economies in the Eurozone continuing to suffer from weak growth, how can Europe finally solve the problems brought on by the financial crisis? Philippe Legrain discusses the policy failures at the root of the crisis, the need to stimulate demand in Eurozone economies, and why the German focus on cutting wages to improve competitiveness is simply exacerbating existing problems.

Germany rebalancing: Waiting for Godot?CER
Far from rebalancing, Germany’s trade surplus continues to grow. This is in nobody’s interests. The German government could and should take steps to reduce it. [press release]

Europe is being torn apart – but the torture will be slowThe Guardian
This monetary union without a political one will continue to cause suffering and divide the north from the south

Eurozone not viable, says top fund boss Neil WoodfordBBC

Greek reform proposals — a first review – medium
Creditors Reject Greece's Reform Proposals – BB
Greece Mulls Referendum as No Deal With Lenders in Sight – BB
Euro zone says Greek reform outline helpful, but needs 'troika' scrutiny – Reuters
Will the “troika” return to Athens? – FT
A new low for German-Greek relations? – Open Europe
Greece Folds (Again); Ready To Propose "New" Reforms Immediately – ZH
Greece Told Not to Waste Time as Euro Finance Ministers Meet – BB
Greece:  The Battle between the Realos and Fundis – Marc to Market

Austria is fast becoming Europe's latest debt nightmareThe Telegraph
A mini-Greece is about to go off in Europe's heartlands, and markets don't even know it

How the Troika sealed Cyprus’ fateThe Press Project
Cyprus received loans only on the condition that its banks sold their branches in Greece to a competitor in Athens at a fraction of their value.

Spain’s Post-Franco Elite Under Attack From Rise of Popular Podemos PartyBB

Economic Fact Book: DenmarkDanske Bank

Securing free trade after Brexit likely in goods but far harder for servicesOpen Europe

ECB Starts Buying German, Italian Government Bonds Under QE PlanBB
Central banks bought German and Italian debt, according to at least two people with knowledge of the transactions, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. They also purchased Belgian securities, one of the people said, and a separate person said French notes were being acquired. Bonds rallied.

Bond Investors Move Towards Ever Riskier DebtWSJ
Bond investors are showing no inclination to fight the ECB, and are instead marching towards ever riskier debt.

This Was Not Supposed To Happen ZH
Peripheral bond spreads up 8bps, stock indices mixed on this first day of QE

Euro issuesPolemic’s Pains
The monstrously low EU rates have, to no surprise, triggered a glut of Euro issuances with another swathe hitting the wires.

"Size Matters" For ECB Which Runs Into Unexpected Monetization ProblemZH

Germany’s Weidmann: ‘Skeptical’ of Expansive ECB Policy JustificationsWSJ
Bundesbank head criticizes large-scale bond buys on day of program’s launch

The Fed has an uphill battle on "wage pressures" argumentSober Look

After NFP, all roads lead to Fed view on inflationTF
USD bulls get excited after payrolls data * Stronger dollar reduces the need for a rate hike * FOMC meeting on March 17-18 next test for USD

A Prediction Market for Inflation, or DeflationNYT
Will the Fed undershoot its inflation target?Scott Sumner

Bonds: How firm a foundation?FT
Regulators question if corporate debt could withstand a sudden reversal

Updated Budget Projections: 2015 to 2025CBO
Budget Deficit to be lower than previous forecastCalculated Risk

China: Exports strong, trade balance surplus surgesDanske Bank

Economists React: Bring Out the Caveats, China’s Export Data Not Quite So RosyWSJ

KVP's Macro Take: Non-farm blow-out clears runway for 2H15 lift-offTF
Inflation looks to be the last bastion before the Fed decides to hike; a lost opportunity to short the NZD and the USD, and the conviction calls that are coming through - the USDCHF pair that just keeps giving, the focus on European equities and the opportunity to get into Portuguese market that is still well down on GFC lows.

How Should Labor Productivity Be Measured?FED

FX: con vergeNordea
ECB QE kicks off this week and the focus shifts to Fed. They can't take it alone, can they? Some convergence should happen soon.

Divergence Theme Continues to Shape the Investment ClimateMarc to Market
The ECB announced that it will begin its accelerated asset purchases on March 9.  The following day the US reported a sufficiently robust employment report to reinvigorate expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before the end of the summer. 

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Explains the Power of Not KnowingInstitutional Investor

Bullish, but "data dependent"Humble Student

Kenneth Rogoff: The Stock-Bond DisconnectProject Syndicate
If the risks that might help explain the price trends for stocks and bonds are real, policymakers, too, should be careful not to throw caution to the wind.

Steady Oil Prices and Strong Production Spur Storage ConcernsMarc to Market

George Magnus: Standing up to the march of the machinesThe Times
There is a popular view that those who worry about the effects of digital technologies on employment and social fabric are out of order. They are not.

Finance is great, but it can be a real drag, tooMoney & Banking
There will be little, if any, cost in terms of economic growth even if further increases in capital requirements were to lead to some shrinkage of the size of the financial sector in the advanced economies.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Give Credit Where It’s Due to U.S. Stress Tests * Signals From U.S., China Show How Much Global Economy Has Shifted Since Crisis * ECB Buying Starts New Era for Bonds, Euro * SNB Faces Political Backlash Over Franc Policy * Brazil Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly Ten Years

Daily MacroWSJ
Last Friday we got yet another outside-expectations U.S. jobs growth number. Now, on Monday, Japan downgrades its GDP performance and the eurozone is reminded that its problems with Greece are not yet over. All this, at the same time the ECB finally launches a quantitative easing program that is inherently driving the euro lower versus the dollar. Now all we need is confirmation from the Fed that its first rate increase in eight years is indeed in the works.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Mid-year Fed hike on track: Positive payrolls pushing the US 10-year yield above 2.20% USD smells a hike * ECB starts QE * Nordic inflation focus

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
ECB Bond Buying Program Launched, Euro Firms

Daily ShotTF
China saw its trade surplus hit a record level as February's imports and exports rallied from early 2015 lows. Meanwhile, Greece is considering an early election as Athens wishes to ensure it has the public's support should its debt proposals be rejected.

Start Of European QE Upstaged By Greek Jitters; Apple Unveils iWatch

FX UpdateTF
Friday’s US employment report put the USD bull market back on track and this week is all about looking for follow through higher in USD pairs, as only EURUSD and USDCHF are entirely free of recent trading ranges.

From the FloorTF
That Brent/WTI spread has narrowed to just under $10/barrel but fundamentals seem to indicate that even if Brent continues to slip, WTI is unlikely to take advantage as it is beset by its won headwinds. The prospect of an earlier Fed rate hike meanwhile is causing ripples across markets.

Daily NewsletterTF
The week ahead contains fewer high-level data releases than did last week, but the launch of Eurozone QE and Friday's astonishing nonfarm payrolls print will continue to send shockwaves through world markets.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Living standards, known unknowns

Riksbank ei vakuutu inflaation kiihtymisestä | Nordean Talousnäkymät julkistetaan keskiviikkona | EKP aloittaa osto-ohjelmansa tänään

Borg ja Suomen talous HeSarissa – eli ei mitään tehtävissäTyhmyri
Eduskuntavaaliehdokas Olli Rehnin näkemys todellisuudestaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Roger Wessman: Ruotsi – Suomi BKT 2014: 2-0Marketnoze
Roger Wessman: Saksan talous uusille urilleMarketnoze

Perussuomalaisten eduskuntaohjelman pääteemat julkiSuomen Uutiset
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