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Wednesday, March 25

25th Mar - European optimism, premature?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Sustaining the Unsustainable EurozoneProject Syndicate
After years of crisis, European Union leaders must recover the capacity, displayed by the EU's founders, to look ahead. Specifically, they should introduce a mechanism for fiscal transfers from stronger to weaker economies.

EurobounceKrugman / NYT
Europe is benefiting a lot from the weaker euro, which is coinciding with a de facto, if unacknowledged, pause in austerity. But the downdrafts — shrinking working-age population, a single currency in a distinctly non-optimum currency area, and the intellectual rigidity of too many policymakers — remain.

The Confidence WitchFrancesco Saraceno

All the euro zone is capable of doing is “stealing” its growth from othersNatixis
Surprise Attack: French Megabank Slams Draghi’s Currency War  Wolf Street

Nordic Outlook - March 2015Danske Bank
Denmark: Moderate growth despite very low rates, Nationalbank lowered policy rates to a record low in defence of the peg * Sweden: Riksbank goes to currency war? Keep an eye on developments in SEK * Norway: Noticeable growth slowdown, decline in oil investment is beginning to be noticed in the economy * Finland: Elections ahead, struggling with both cyclical and structural problems

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises in March – CESifo
German Economy Powers Ahead as Ifo Sentiment Improves – BB

Robert Kahn: Greece and the Politics of ArrearsCFR

How Greece Hopes to Get Some Quick CashWSJ

Why Greece is Stuck With the Worst of All Worlds Right NowWSJ

ECB Actions Working, but Structural Reforms Needed-LiikanenNYT

European Rate Cuts Prove No Match for Mighty ECBWSJ

Key Measures Show Low Inflation in FebruaryCalculated Risk

Strong Dollar’s Drag on Prices Will Not Cause Deflation, Cleveland Fed Economists SayWSJ

Use and Misuse of the Fed's DotsMarc to Market

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: New Signs of an Inflation Cycle Turning * Fed’s Bullard Warns of Market Disruption * Fed’s Evans: Central Bank Shouldn’t Raise Rates This Year * ECB Tells Greek Banks Not to Boost Exposure to Athens Government’s Debt * Hungary Cuts Key Interest Rate to New Low

Daily MacroWSJ
On the one hand, Germany is booming – or so the latest business sentiment data suggest. But on the other, the Greece problem is looking increasingly dicey as the European Central Bank told the country’s shaky banks to stop expanding their holdings of Greek sovereign debt.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Strong eurozone PMIs signals growth acceleration…while China’s flash PMI points to ongoing manufacturing slowdown * US headline inflation climbs for the first time in four months, core inflation continues to firm

Euro rates updateNordea

Have transatlantic spreads peaked? * Ifo and US durable goods orders on the agenda * US rates seemingly cannot sell off * EUR/USD volatility getting extreme

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Consolidation Flavor of the Day

Daily ShotTF
Positive macro data has been released with PMI in Europe up and core inflation in the US still well above 1.5%.

Without Buyback Back Up, Futures Fail To Find Fizzle

FX UpdateTF
Yesterday’s higher-than-expected US inflation data saw a pause in the USD rout, but we need a follow-up move stronger today to argue that the USD is fully back on the rally track. Overnight trade data keeps NZD under pressure.

From the FloorTF
Aussie materials giant Fortescue proposes iron ore cartel * Strong US data lifting greenback out of its post-FOMC funk * Bank dislocation provides some interesting equity plays * WTI crude oil finds resistance at $48.60/b ahead of today's EIA report * High-yield Petrobras, Gazprom bonds look intriguing

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Understanding Greece: Draw the right lessons from past mistakes and current stand-off –
Deficits without debt, default without Grexit

Ostopäälliköt vihjaavat piristyvää vientinäkymää Suomelle | USA:n pohjainflaatio oli odotuksia korkeampi | Tänään julkistetaan Ruotsin talouselämän luottamuslukuja

Elvytyskeskustelun epä-älyllinen kahtiajakoRoger Wessman

Professori varoittaa leikkausten haitoista: ”Hintana taantuma koti­markkinoilla”HS
Pohjolan mielestä Suomessa pitäisi valita keskitie ääripäiden välillä

Talousennuste vuosille 2015–2016PT
Suomen julkisen talouden alijäämä alle kolmeen prosenttiin ilman uusia menoleikkauksia (lehdistötiedote tässä)

Kylmäävä varoitus päättäjille: Näin liian isot leikkaukset iskisivätIL
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos varoittaa tekemästä liian suuria menoleikkauksia valtiontalouteen.

Matti Virén: Kuluvan vaalikauden talouslupaukset ja -virheet jo unohdettuVerkkouutiset

Kun maksukyvyttömyys uhkasi... Henri Myllyniemi / US

Euro ja Talous 1/2015 – Suomen Pankki

Suomen Pankki: Kysyntää tukevalle finanssipolitiikalle on vain vähän tilaa Verkkouutiset
Talouden ennustetaan elpyvän euroalueella, mutta rakenneuudistuksia tarvitaan ja kysyntää tukevalle valtion finanssipolitiikalle on vain rajoitetusti tilaa, kertoo Suomen Pankki.

Suomi siiloista – 23 haastattelua johtamisestaMiltton

Synkän tieteen historiaa: "Neekerikysymyksestä" Pisara-rataanTE