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Wednesday, March 4

4th Mar - FOMC 2009 transcripts published

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euro-area governance: what to reform and how to do itBruegel
Reform of the governance of the euro area is being held back by disagreement on what is at the root of the euro area’s woes. Pre-crisis, the euro area suffered from the built-up of financial imbalances, price and wage divergence and an insufficient focus on debt sustainability. During the crisis, the main problems were slow resolution of banking problems, an inadequate fiscal policy stance in 2011-13 for the area as a whole, insufficient domestic demand in surplus countries and slow progress with structural reforms to overcome past divergences.

It’s time for Optimism for EuropeGlobal Macrotrading
Has the Eurozone found its mojo?TF

ECB Glimpse of Cyprus Debt Shows Limits of Bank CleanupBB

Volume of retail trade up by 1.1% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro retail sales suggest upside risk to our above consensus expectation – Danske Bank

Greece is being forced into purgatory to save the euro – The Telegraph
Euro zone rebuffs Spanish talk of new Greek bailout – Reuters

ECB prepares to give details of QE schemeFT
Profit- and loss-sharing, flexibility of central banks and conditionality behind the length of the programme.

ECB preview: The QE beginsTF
Conditionality of length, absorption problem and negative yields

5 Points to Watch During the ECB’s March MeetingWSJ
When Will QE Be Launched * Watch for Signs of Flexibility... * ...And What Will Define Success * How Does the ECB See the Economic Outlook? * What Messages on Greece?

This is nuts, where have all the bonds gone?FT
Bond buying on ECB QE, the Greek loan extension and recent growth data in the periphery has transformed itself into bond hoarding.

Scarcity of bonds could pose problems for the ECB’s QEEuropp / LSE
The ECB should be prepared, then, to pay higher prices for the purchase of government securities in order to meet its goal of pumping money into the financial system of the Eurozone.

This is nuts. But so what?FT
Citi: Is it a bubble?...certainly has all the typical hallmarks of one…But that’s almost beside the point, as we think it will last longer than most people’s investment horizons, leaving them with little choice but to participate. As we see it, the time to exit is the day that the market starts to doubt the ECB’s commitment to buying more.

Why ECB risks running out of ammunitionFT
Constraints lie in 25% issue and 33% issuer limits on bond purchases

What to Expect from the ECBMarc to Market
The operational risks are two-fold.  First, the amount of sovereign bonds that it plans on buying may exceed net debt issuance for some countries.. A second operational challenge will be in the reporting of the purchases.

FOMC Transcripts and Presentation Materials – FED
Federal Reserve Timeline, 2009 – WSJ
Federal Reserve Who’s Who, 2009 – WSJ
Live Tour: The Federal Reserve’s 2009 Transcripts – WSJ
Six Charts of the Unfathomably Bleak Economy the Fed Faced in 2009 – WSJ
The Fed's 2009 Transcripts Are Out – BB
Fed Sheds Light on Turbulent ’09 With Publication of Transcripts – BB
The Ultra-Grim Way Yellen Described the Economy in March 2009 – BB
Yellen in June 2009: Sluggish Recovery, Low inflation for "few years" – Calculated Risk
Fed releases 2009 meeting transcripts – FT
Fed wrestled with same policy “exit” issues in 2009 – Reuters
Laughter Slowly Returned to the Fed in 2009 – BB
The 2009 FOMC Laugh Track: Fed Humor in a Bleak Economic Year – WSJ
Prescient Yellen saw limits of zero Fed interest rates back in 2009 – Reuters
The fog of financial crises, FOMC transcripts edition – FT
Yellen’s bleak outlook in March 2009 – FT

[video] Global economic outlookThe Economist / Youtube
Where we are and where we are going / The Buttonwood Gathering: Olivier Blanchard (Chief economist, IMF),  Jason Furman Chairman (President's Council of Economic Advisers), Stephen King (Chief economist, HSBC), Zanny Minton Beddoes (Editor-in-chief, The Economist)

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Douglas’s Take: U.K. and U.S. Lawmakers Pressing for More Central Bank Accountability * Yellen Scolds Wall Street on Culture, Ethics * Shelby Calls for Review of Fed Structure * Warren Warns Fed to Curb its Emergency Lending Powers Further * India Cuts Key Interest Rate for Second Time This Year

Daily MacroWSJ
Europe seems well on the road to recovery. Services in most of the major economies are posting solid growth and retail sales are booming, thanks not least to long dormant German consumers…Global investors’ concerns now have to some extent shifted to Asia, where we got an improvement in China’s services purchasing managers’ index and slightly-higher-than-expected Australian GDP readout – both welcome, but not quite enough to set aside nagging worries of a protracted regional slowdown.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

US yields remain above 2% * Record-high DKK interventions * EBRD to provide financing for Greek SMEs * EUR/SEK breaks dow

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Euro Remains Heavy ahead of ECB

Futures Slide Despite Latest Central Bank Easing Blitz

FX UpdateTF
This market remains reluctant to commit to a direction in major USD pairs, likely wanting to see the incoming US data today and Friday and the ECB tomorrow before EURUSD can make a bigger move. Elsewhere, we’re making a major shift in the SEK outlook.

Daily NewsletterTF
After a surprise interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India overnight, market attention now turns to Eurozone flash PMIs at 09:00 GMT. These will set the tone for the day's trading in the euro as they'll help shape our assessment of the state of the bloc's economy ahead of the ECB's quantitative easing programme launch.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Intellectual battles over Greece: Athens v eurozone is nothing compared to quarrelling economists

Kiinan kansankongressi leikkaa kasvutavoitetta | USA:n keskuspankki julkistaa Beige Book-raportin | Tänään saadaan euroalueen vähittäismyyntiluvut

Ylen VaaliopasYLE
eduskuntavaalikevään kaikki tärkeimmät tapahtumat.

Vakaampi talous- ja rahaliittoVM
Turunen: Ministeriö tuli perussuomalaisten linjalleSuomen Uutiset
Valtiovarainministeriön virkamiestyöryhmä käytännössä toteaa perussuomalaisten olleen oikeassa, sanoo perussuomalaisten kansanedustaja Kaj Turunen.

Arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2015EVA
Asennetutkimus: Suomalaisten mielestä verotaakka on nyt tapissa – Verkkouutiset
Stubb täysin vieraantunut kansasta, Soini ymmärtää parhaiten – Suomen Uutiset
Kysely: Stubb ei ymmärrä suomalaisen arkea – MTV
EVA: Suomalaisten mielestä verotaakka on nyt tapissa – Verkkouutiset