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EUROPE
Court
Finds Rajoy's Ruling Party May Have Had Secret Accounts – ZH
UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a
deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best case scenario, under
which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade
arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, whilst pursuing large-scale
deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP
in 2030. However, a far more realistic range is between a 0.8% permanent loss
to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain mixes policy approaches.
GREECE
Merkel meets
Tsipras, pressured to take tough line – FT
Greece Faces Decisive Week as Tsipras Is
Set to Meet Merkel – BB
Deutsche
Bank: What Happens After The Grexit – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Wolfgang
Münchau: The success of eurozone QE relies on a confidence trick – FT
Programme’s
impact unknown without evidence of how the policy transmits to the real economy
Speech Mario
Draghi – ECB
Introductory
remarks at the EP’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
UNITED STATES
Prepare
for Fed hikes – Danske
Bank
Market
pricing of Fed funds rate hikes over the coming four years is extremely subdued.
We see a significant potential for a re-pricing of this pace over the coming
six months. We expect the first rate hike from the Fed to come in September
this year.
Fed
‘lift-off’ is to destination unknown – FT
US rate rise journey is likely to be
turbulent for investors
Currency
wars rebound on the Fed – FT
The Fed has
discovered that currency wars, or “competitive” monetary easing, can apply in
both directions. Ideally, it may want to raise US interest rates in June. But,
like the other major central banks, it is no longer in full control of its own
destiny. Global monetary conditions just keep getting easier.
Is the
Fed bluffing on rate hikes? – FT
If core
inflation ends up lower by year-end, BoAML believes the Fed’s policy statement
language makes clear the central bank will find it difficult to hike in that
scenario.
The
dollar’s surge may be over – WaPo
There's no
inflation, no bubbly behavior, just no reason to increase rates anytime soon. And
that would mean there isn't any more reason for the dollar to go up.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Disappearing Hawks and Other Reasons for Fed Forecast Shift * Fed’s
Lockhart Sees Rate Increase in June, July or September * Fed’s Mester: Fed
Needs Further Refinements Of Forward Guidance * Fed Sent Nearly $97 Billion to
the U.S. Treasury in 2014 * Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Today’s
news from around the European Union suggests that, despite the improvements in
some of the eurozone’s economic numbers, there are still serious problems to be
resolved before markets can comfortable with a stable outlook.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
China PMI
to soften * EUR swaps consolidate at all-time lows * EUR/USD correction not
over yet
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar
Recovers from Lower Opening
Daily
Shot – TF
Crude oil
output is increasing, putting pressure on prices despite a weaker USD. Energy
companies meanwhile are about to massively cut fixed investment, which sooner
or later should lead to lower production. Half of 66 research groups asked are
expecting a Fed rate hike this June. Even if this sounds premature, we should
not expect a crash as in 1937.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Whether
Britain is better off in or out of the EU depends on a series of tough choices
* Greek PM heads to Berlin amid warnings Greece will run out of cash in early
April * Front National obtains highest-ever score in a French local election * Spanish
Socialists to retain power in Andalusia as Podemos storms in as third-largest
party * Ukraine will not repay $3bn bond owed to Russia
US Open – ZH
Buying
Euphoria Fizzles Ahead Of Make Or Break Tsipras-Merkel Talks
FX
Update – TF
The USD is
on the defensive to start the week after last week’s dovish FOMC meeting, but
assessing the prospects for further potential downside are difficult due to the
extremely choppy price action. With few key US data risks this week, the risk of
treacherous price action is likely to continue.
From the
Floor – TF
NZD leads
EM currencies spurt after FOMC dollar negativity, to hit 2-month high * Kiwi "over-achieving"
as dollar reaction to meeting still unwinding, says Hardy * Asian markets shoot
to new highs led by Shanghai Composite Index * FX Options liquidity "extremely
poor" as two-way moves open on EURUSD * Commodities decimated as exodus of
positions gathers pace, says Hansen * Gold looking to challenge $1,190/oz area
but upside limited * Oil getting some support but signals still pointing down *
Saudi Arabia sticks to production guns to pump new record
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Productivity
problems: Europe is failing at the biggest economic
test there is
OTHER
FX:
turning points – Nordea
Blame the
US economic data disappointments for the recent strength in USD and lower
yields. Are we there yet?!
The
dollar surge – Bruegel
The US
dollar has gone through a very rapid appreciation over the past 6 months. While
reduced form estimates are often presented to argue that this will create a
drag on the US economy, it is difficult to reason
from a price change and the net effect could be positive if the price change is
mostly driven by expansionary monetary policy abroad. In emerging economies,
currency mismatches remain despite the recent increase in local currency
sovereign debt and may create significant risks.
Economists
agree: deflation is either good, or bad, or irrelevant – FT
Central
bankers would be better off concentrating on the financial cycle — the
interaction between asset prices and leverage that gives us the big booms and
deep busts — and spending less time worrying about keeping the price growth of
goods and services confined to such a narrow band.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus
– Nordea
Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit viestivät kiihtyvästä
kasvusta | Merkel ja Tsipras tapaavat tänään Berliinissä | USA:n inflaatio on
todennäköisesti jatkunut heikkona
Suurtyöttömyyden seuraus: Työttömyysvakuutusrahasto
varautuu velanottoon – YLE
TVR:n menot kasvoivat viime vuonna lähes neljänneksellä edellisvuodesta.
Rahaston budjettialijäämä kasvoi 400 miljoonaa euroa arvioitua suuremmaksi.
Innovaatioiden perusta murenee – EVA
Yhdeksän ehdotusta yliopistojärjestelmän korjaamiseksi
Kreikan velkojille kylmää vettä niskaan – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
”SUOMI PULASSA
TAKAUKSIEN KANSSA”
Raportti: Suomi pulassa jos tulee uusia talouskriisejä
– YLE
Kansainvälisesti tarkasteltuna Suomen takaukset ovat VM:n
mukaan korkealla tasolla. Pahoja yllätyksiä voi kriisitilanteessa tulla siitäkin,
että Suomen valtion vastuista on ollut mahdotonta muodostaa kokonaiskuvaa.
Finnveran takauksia ei voi enää kasvattaa – valtion
riskit merkittäviä – Verkkouutiset
Valtion taloudelliset vastuut ovat kasvaneet merkittävästi,
ja niiden laukeaminen voisi heikentää Suomen taloudellista asemaa entisestään.
Näkökulma: VM haluaa seuraavan hallituksen tiukkaan
holhoukseen – YLE
Suomen talous on siinä jamassa, ettei poliittiseen
vatulointiin enää ole varaa. Valtiovarainministeriö yrittää saada poliitikot
sellaiseen liekaan, että päätökset myös toteutuvat, kirjoittaa Ylen
taloustoimittaja Hanna Säntti.
”LEIKATTAVA VAI
EI”
Talousprofessorin mukaan puolueet, ekonomistit ja
järjestöt ovat väärässä – HS
Professori Pertti
Haaparanta ihmettelee vaatimuksia julkisen talouden leikkauksista: "Suomen
talouspuhe täysin epä-älyllistä"
Haaparanta: Hollannin yskä Suomeen? – Akateeminen talousblogi
VM:n Hetemäki vastaa Haaparannalle: Suomi on elvyttänyt
kuusi vuotta – HS
Korkman vastaa Haaparannalle: Pitääkö leikata vai
elvyttää? – HS