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Friday, March 27

27th Mar - Boring

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Europe does not have the means to fight jihadists on its own territory’vox europ
For economist Loretta Napoleoni, specialist on terrorism and how it is funded, the Islamic State (IS) does not pose a direct threat on the European continent, but Europeans are not financially and legally equipped to fight young radicals and former fighters returning from the Middle East.

Nordics: Central banks going for brokeNordea
The focus is on the central banks: in Denmark and Sweden, unprecedented measures have already been put into place, while Norges Bank is dithering over when to cut rates. Although the goals differ, the situation requires unorthodox and unusual measures.

BOE’s Broadbent: Deflation Unlikely in UKWSJ

GBP: election risks to turn trendNordea
Softer labour market data from the UK recently suggests the BoE may be patient for longer. Growing election risks in May have already boosted volatility and should support higher EUR/GBP.

Greece Scrambles to Reach Deal as Cash Runs LowWSJ

Neither Grexit, nor Grexident. Euro and 'drachma' in parallel?Reuters

Schäuble: Wrong to Support QE While Criticizing German SurplusWSJ

Draghi a World-Beater in Moving Markets as ECB Confounds CriticsBB

Fed’s Stanley Fischer Urges Vigilance on Shadow-Bank RisksWSJ
Fed's Fischer: Nonbank financial sector less vulnerable than before crisisReuters
Fed’s Fischer Says More Work Needed to Protect Financial SystemBB

Labour Market Monitor: Healthy job gains despite weaker GDP growthDanske Bank 

Talkin'  and Yellen: Understanding the FedMarc to Market

Final Q4 GDP 2.2%, Unchanged, Below Expectations; Corporate Profits Tumble – ZH
Q4 GDP unrevised at 2.2% Annual Rate – Calculated Risk
Growth slows in fourth quarter; corporate profits fall – Reuters
Economy in U.S. Expanded at 2.2% Pace in Fourth Quarter – BB

UMich Consumer Sentiment Drops For 2nd Month In A Row – ZH

Growing Speculation BOJ Easing May Outlast Kuroda’s TenureWSJ

JPY: QE questionedNordea
Headline inflation is slowing in Japan as elsewhere, but core inflation should remain sticky due to the tight labour market. The BoJ and government do not agree on the QE - is more needed? Short term risk: stronger JPY.

EURUSD: correction or trend change?Nordea
The EUR/USD reacted to the ECB QE launch as anticipated, and bounced. The "policy divergence" theme is in question as increasing volatility suggests indecision - and potential for further upward correction in the near term. If the pair reaches 1.1450, we may have to revise our forecasts, which see 1.05 at end 2015.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” * Lockhart Says Dollar Rise Becoming Bigger Issue for Fed * Fed’s Fischer Urges Vigilance on Shadow Bank Risks * ECB’s Draghi Expects QE to Reach 60 Billion Euros By End of March * Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics

Daily MacroWSJ
As the week winds down and the quarter slides toward a close, the global story seems to be one of gradual rebalancing.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eurozone banks are lendingABN AMRO
Bank lending in the eurozone is expanding, with monthly loan flows accelerating…this is consistent with survey evidence of easing lending standards and stronger demand * Greece: deposit withdrawal running at a faster pace than in 2012

Euro rates updateNordea

Treasury yields rise despite geopolitical concerns * Oil prices up, equities down * Intra-euro spread conversion takes a breather * Fed speeches to drive the EUR/USD over the day

Morning MarketsTF

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Extends Yesterday's Recovery

Daily ShotTF
The Eurozone's economic prospects continue to surprise to the upside, but the ongoing threat of a Greek exit (as well as the problems that brought such a proposal to the table) continue to threaten Continental stability.

US Open ZH
Futures Wipe Out Early Gains In Volatile Session As Dollar Resumes Climb; Oil Slides

FX UpdateTF
EURUSD more thoroughly rejected the 1.1000 level yesterday with a deep sell-off after posting new highs and action in other USD pairs helps to build the case for continuing USD recovery.

From the FloorTF
Japanese core CPI hits zero in February * Fed chair Janet Yellen slated to speak today * European automotive sector overbought * Yemen oil price spike "just a blip" * Greek bonds sell off on grim bank deposits data

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT 

The many roads to stagnation - There is no shortage of reasons for secular slowdown

Menojen leikkaukset jääneet vain puheiden tasolle | Britannian parlamenttivaalit kaivavat maata punnan alta | Saudi-Arabian sotilasoperaatio Jemenissä nosti raakaöljyn hintaa

Julkisen sektorin leikkaukset, elvytys ja luottamus – katsokaa lukuja mielikuvien sijaanTyhmyri

Vartiainen kuuden miljardin leikkauslistasta: "Ihan asiallinen"IL
Kokoomus on valmis seuraavalla vaalikaudella kuuden miljardin euron suuruisiin leikkauksiin.

Rinne: Kuuden miljardin leikkaus mahdottomuusIL
Ministeri kertoi iltapäivällä, että virkamiesten aamupäivällä esittämä kuuri on liian raju. Valtiovarainministeri Antti Rinne (sd) sanoo, ettei kuuden miljardin euron leikkauksia voi tehdä neljässä vuodessa.

Asiantuntija puolueiden leikkaushaaveista: "Suuret leikkaukset olisivat tuhoisia"IL
Dosentti ampuu alas leikkauslinjan. - On vastuutonta leikata, kun talous menee lujaa vauhtia alas, Aalto-yliopiston dosentti, kauppatieteiden tohtori Mika Pantzar sanoo Iltalehdelle.

Suomi voi joutua Brysselin ohjaukseen KS
Aalto-yliopiston professori Matti Pohjolan mukaan keskeinen syy Suomen talousongelmiin on työn tuottavuuden kasvun pysähtyminen.

Järkevän maahanmuuttopolitiikan perusteetSampo Terho

Perusturvan riittävyyden arviointiraportti 2011–2015THL
Kahden sortin perusturvaaEläketutka

Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: helmik. myynti -0,9% prosenttia YoY – Tilastokeskus
Osakeasuntojen hinnat lähes ennallaan helmikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien luottamus keskimääräisellä tasolla maaliskuussa – Tilastokeskus