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Thursday, February 11

11th Feb - No help from Yellen, bear continues

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EU discusses narrow British exceptionalism, not EU-wide reform – Open Europe
A leaked draft of the latest UK-EU deal suggests France and Germany are fighting UK demands on banking regulation and the status of non-Euro states in the EU, while other states don't want the UK benefit curbs to apply more widely. In effect, the deal narrows the scope for EU-wide reform in favour of British exceptionalism.

Is the sovereign debt crisis coming back to haunt Europe?The Telegraph
Borrowing costs on peripheral government debt are spiking, while those in Germany and the UK fall to record lows as investors seek safe havens

Deutsche Bank Is Back: 5 Year Sub CDS Soar To Record HighZH

Eurogroup warns Portugal on budgetPolitico

Riksbank: The heat is on – Nordea
Sweden: Riksbank goes NIRP for longer – Danske Bank
Sweden Slides Further Into NIRP, Cuts Rates To -0.50% - ZH
Why Sweden’s Negative Deposit Rate Isn’t as Scary as It Looks – WSJ

Steen Jakobsen: 'Yellen night' became 'yelling night'TF
Hapless Yellen was like a deer trapped in the headlights * The present status is now crisis mode

Four Legal Questions the Fed Would Face If it Decided to Go NegativeWSJ
Yellen Admits Fed Is Evaluating Possibility Of Negative RatesZH

I Should CocoMacro Man

Markets Monitor 1-2/2016Office of Financial Research
Markets Weaken in Response to Concerns About Global Growth and Oil

How negative is negative? Try 4.5 per cent negativeFT
How Low Can Interest Rates Go? Try Negative 4.5% - WSJ

Eurodollorous carnage as banks meet NNIM FT

JPY, it wasn’t meant to be this wayFT

Bank Of Japan Intervention Sends USDJPY SoaringZH

On the absurdity of today’s safe haven flowsFT

EM FX Traffic Light January 2016 – SAR risks stand outNordea
Today we introduce our new EM FX Traffic Light. Each month, we attach a red (highly risky), yellow (risky) or a green (less risky) Traffic Light to 33 different Emerging Markets currencies. The idea is to flag the currencies at highest risk of coming under extreme pressure in the next six months. In the January Traffic Light, the SAR is flashing red, while the CNY, NGN, EGP, HKD and COP all get a yellow light. A green light does not rule out other risks that are not covered by this model.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Yellen did little to surprise, risk appetite collapsed, JPY aims for the Milky Way? * Risk appetite disappeared quickly yesterday evening * US yield curve flattest since 2007 * More easing from the Riksbank today?

Morning MarketsTF
Markets are braced for a second blast of Congressional testimony from US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen later today following yesterday's initial session.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Stocks Crater, Yen Soars

Daily ShotTF
The Federal Reserve is becoming more concerned about tight financial conditions the RMB devaluation and global economic uncertainty. However Janet Yellen was not as dovish as some had hoped for. Markets are questioning the Fed's credibility and see chances for negative rates.

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Tusk: UK-EU negotiations “very fragile” as French seek watered down provisions on banking regulation * Sapin: Merkel and Hollande to present plan on future of Eurozone by end of 2016 * Italian PM likens the EU to “the orchestra playing on the Titanic” * Leader of Merkel’s sister party accuses her of tyranny on migration policies * NATO agrees to boost Eastern European Presence * US and EU reach deal on derivatives regulation and clearing house equivalence * Commission delays MiFID II implementation by one year

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Italy’s Eurozone push — Latest Brexit deal — NATO surprise success

Markets Around The World Are Crashing; Gold Soars


FX UpdateTF
The markets were calling for Yellen to deliver something to shore up market confidence but she entirely failed and the markets have been losing faith in central banks’ ability to move the needle anyway. The prime move on this remains USDJPY.

From the FloorTF
Equities and the dollar fell while bonds gold and core bonds gained on Thursday after Fed chief Jan Yellen's plain-vanilla testimony to Congress failed to inspire confidence in worried markets.

Ruotsi elvyttää tänään * Euroopan osakemarkkinoiden laskuliike tyyntyi eilen * Yellenin puhe veti jenkkikorot laskuun * Jenin vahvistuminen ei osoita hyytymisen merkkejä