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Friday, February 5

5th Feb - US payrolls no big deal

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe's Economic Outlook Darkens, Sends Shudder Through Markets BB

NFP Preview: US jobs machine seen gearing down – TF
Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects – ZH

Employment Details Better than the Headlines – Marc Chandler
Payrolls Miss, +15K, Wages Jump, Unemployment 4.9% - ZH
Post-Payrolls Reaction: Sell Everything, Buy Dollars – ZH
+15K jobs, unemployment rate drops to 4.9 percent – WaPo
151K Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate, Graphs – Bill McBride

January Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
January Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Payrolls in U.S. Climb as Jobless Rate Declines, Wages Rise – BB
Job growth slows, unemployment rate at eight-year low – Reuters
Weaker job growth but still a healthy pace – Nordea

The January Jobs Report in 12 Charts – WSJ
Economists on jobs report: ‘Leaves open a March Hike’ – WSJ
Wages surprised on the upside, employment growth slowed – Danske Bank
70% Of Jobs Added Minimum Wage Waiters And Retail Workers – ZH
El-Erian: 4 Reasons to Cheer the January Jobs Report – View / BB

Citi: 'We Should All Fear Oilmageddon'BB
A feedback loop of the U.S. dollar, crude, capital flows, and emerging markets.

Dollar tumbles as Fed rescues China in the nick of time The Telegraph
The central banks of Europe and Japan discover that it is impossible to stave off deflation by debasing their currencies when everybody is playing the same game

JPY, European financials, sentiment, US yield curveTF
JPY has not been going anywhere, slowly eroding trust in the BoJ * European financial stocks offer good value versus the overall market * High level of economic sentiment kind of guaranteed a deep market correction * US recessionary-like yield curve suggests Fed could shift its attitude

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Will a Soft Jobs Number Provide the Markets a Boost?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Calmness ahead of US payrolls; USD and GBP under pressure * US jobs day – expect payback from a strong Q4 * Only 12 bp priced in to Fed funds * Sterling suffers from dovish BoE

Morning MarketsTF
Tokyo stocks fell and the dollar steadied at lower levels against the yen and other major currencies on Friday ahead of US January nonfarm payrolls which are keenly awaited for signs of whether the US economy is strong enough to keep the Fed's tightening on track.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
It is Not All About U.S. Jobs

Daily ShotTF
Financial institutions in Europe are under pressure and Germany's biggest bank Deutsche Bank is in deeper trouble than most. Elsewhere the strength in the EUR and weakness in the USD are important factors for many industries and markets. Rate hikes by major Central Banks as Federal Reserve and Bank of England become less and less likely.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Polish PM: Emergency brake on EU migrants’ benefits “doesn’t make me happy” *
New YouGov poll: Record 9-point lead for Leave as 46% say EU deal does not go far enough * EU Commissioner says detention centres needed for failed asylum seekers, as suspected IS terrorist posing as refugee apprehended in Berlin * Catalan leader says UK-EU deal is “encouraging” for Catalonia * ECJ could frustrate UK attempts to deport non-EU citizens * New Spanish poll suggests re-run elections would not break the political stalemate * Lagarde: Debt relief must go hand in hand with Greek reforms * BoE continues to fight EU over bankers’ bonus cap * Commission to launch new trade probes over cheap Chinese steel

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Portugal budget — Managing migration — Dealing with Brexit

Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report


FX UpdateTF
Today’s US January jobs report caps off a frantic week of trading and next week starts with a bang too as China is set to report its January FX reserves this weekend before New Year's celebrations in Asia wind down next week.

From the FloorTF
Weakness in USD is still a decisive factor across markets and will be so in the near future too. European financials though are suffering from other difficulties namely bad loans but in the short run they are worth looking at after a January meltdown.

USA:n työllisyysluvuissa pettymyksen riski * Englannin keskuspankki muuttui kyyhkymäisemmäksi * Saksan tehdastilaukset kääntyvät laskuun * Ruotsissa teollisuustuotannon kasvu jatkuu

Pohdintaa Suomen kohtalonkysymyksistäPeter Nyberg