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Friday, February 12

12th - A small bounce higher

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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New VoxEU eBook: How to fix the Eurozonevox
Important progress has been made in repairing the design faults that the EZ Crisis revealed. This column introduces a new VoxEU eBook which argues that fixing the Eurozone is a job half done. The eBook, which presents 18 chapters by leading economists that hail from a broad range of nations and schools of thought, is surely the most comprehensive collection of solutions that has ever been assembled.

For European Banks 2016 Is Already Worse Than 2008ZH

European banks: a problem of profitability—but not of liquidity or solvencyPictet
European banks have been underperforming the European equity market to much the same degree as US banks have been underperforming the US market, suggesting that there is no specific issue with European banks.

Sweden’s central bank Riks-rolls the marketFT

Euro area Q4 GDP okay but the outlook has become more uncertain – Nordea
Eurozone GDP growth steady in Q4 – ABN AMRO
Euro-Area Maintains Momentum as Turmoil Threatens Outlook – BB

Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelinedDanske Bank
We now expect the Fed to keep on hold until the September meeting, as we believe it will take some time before the current high uncertainty on the outlook will clear. We think the Fed will use the upcoming March FOMC meeting to signal a lower trajectory for the Fed funds rate and state that it is on hold for now.

Fed Yet To Fully Embrace A New Policy PathTim Duy
sure Yellen gave enough this week to take March off the table. That said, policymakers will hesitate to dramatically change their general policy outlook focused on higher rates. Consequently, I anticipate Fedspeak with seemingly unrealistic hawkish undertones. Essentially, they will leave the fear of policy error simmering on the back-burner.

Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy responseReuters

Retail Sales increased 0.2% in January – Bill McBride
Retail Sales Beat Expectations – ZH
U.S. consumers flex muscle; import prices signal weak inflation – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales Increased in January in Broad-Based Advance – BB

Global: market has thrown down the recessionary gauntletNordea
Martin Enlund: Global markets are behaving in a way consistent with a rising probability of a US if not a global recession. European bank equities are under pressure, and we may be seeing repatriation flows making the jobs of BOJ and ECB supremely difficult. The market has seemingly thrown down the (recessionary) gauntlet. Now it’s up to global policymakers to respond. Aside from a 360 from the Fed, could the G20 meeting later in February stem the bleeding?

[video] Have Central Banks Run Out of Bullets?BB
BNY Mellon Chief Currency Strategist Simon Derrick and Allianz Global Investors' Andreas Utermann discusses negative interest rates and central banks monetary policies.

Racked Markets Hand Verdict to Central Banks on Sub-Zero RatesBB
More than $8 trillion erased from global equities this year * Negative rates hurt banks as unconventional policies backfire

The Trouble With CoCosView / BB
If regulators want to protect taxpayers and make the banking system more resilient, they’d be better off just requiring more equity.

[video] Why Hasn't QE Improved Nominal Growth Outlook Globally?BB
Allianz Global Investors' Andreas Utermann discusses quantitative easing and the global economy

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Equity meltdown, Riksbanken goes deeper into NIRP, OPEC ready to cut? * Euro-area GDP could disappoint * The German 10-year goes below 0.2%, while Riksbanken lowers repo to -0.5% * The JPY and EUR gains on safe haven bid

Morning MarketsTF
The Nikkei plunged nearly 5% on Friday as fears of a global economic slowdown propelled the yen further against the dollar and investors turned away from equities to seek safety in government bonds and gold.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
A Bit of a Pre-Weekend Reprieve in Europe, but Return of China on Monday is Worrisome

Daily ShotTF
Deutsche Bank downgraded: the markets are in turmoil from New York to Seoul but there is a special place at the storm's very centre reserved for Deutsche Bank.

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
France and Germany digging in over non-Eurozone banking rules in UK-EU deal * Cameron to hold final meeting with Merkel ahead of crunch EU summit * Podemos calls on Rajoy to veto UK-EU deal * Over 130 Tory councillors call on Cameron to lead Brexit campaign in wake of ‘failed’ renegotiation * We will “open the doors” for millions of migrants to Europe Turkish President warns * Demographic time-bomb could see German debt to GDP ratio rise to 220% Finance Ministry warns * IMF warns weaker reform path in Greece would mean more debt relief needed * Eurozone leaders defend new bank bail-in rules * Eurogroup embraces greater transparency in agreeing to publish more detailed summaries of meetings * US now believes agreement on TTIP can be struck before end of Obama Presidency * Portugal agrees to line up additional deficit cuts to ensure compliance with Eurozone * German GDP grew 0.3% in last quarter of 2015, in line with expectations * US Treasury Secretary expresses “serious concerns” over fairness of EU tax treatment of US firms

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Syria progress — NATO migration deal — Dem debate

Despite Crashing Japan, European, U.S. Markets Rebound On Firmer Oil


FX UpdateTF
Japan was back from holiday and in a sour mood after a glance at the JPY exchange rates but Europe is trying to put a brave face on this morning at the end of a traumatic week. US retail sales up later today.

From the FloorTF
It's official: global equities as measured by the MSCI World All Countries index are in a bear market and Saxo Bank equities head Peter Garnry says this is no time to try and time the bounce.

Euroalueen BKT-luvut julkaistaan * Markkinoiden pelkotilat leimasivat markkinaliikkeitä eilen * Riksbankin yllätys heikensi kruunua hyvin maltillisesti, Riksbankin eväät on syöty

Venäjä pitäisi keksiä jos sitä ei olisi – EU ja eurofiilit - Tyhmyri