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Wednesday, February 24

24th Feb - Pressure on ECB and G20

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Walter Laqueur: Age of European extremesPolitico
Predictions of EU boom are as hubristic as those of its bust

Greece cancels 2012 IMF bailout programmeTF

[video 3min] Short View: Brexit and the euro – FT
HSBC’s Brexit Forecast: Sterling Could Tumble 20% – WSJ
HSBC’s Brexit base case: the abyss – FT
UK Article IV Consultation Press Release – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Concludes 2015 UK’s Article IV Consultation – IMF
IMF chief warns against Brexit – Politico

Options for the ECB to cushion impact of negative ratesABN AMRO
The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate much further…but has indicated that it wants to take steps to cushion the blow for banks * A tiered rate system seems to be the most likely approach…but a refi rate cut, a new set of TLTROs and a willingness to take on more risk in accepting collateral or in its ABS programme are also possibilities

Is the ECB doomed to disappoint?TF
The recent batch of economic data has been so weak that the European Central Bank's earlier promises to ease further have to be redeemed at the March meeting. Unfortunately so much is already expected that investors could be disappointed in the ECB's timidness.

ECB risks running out of bonds to buy unless rewrites rules Reuters

Not All Fed Presidents On Board With March PauseTim Duy
The Fed is on hold. No clear end to the pause. But be wary that some Presidents might want something in return for that pause.

February financial forecasts: Prepare for more easingNordea
The market turbulence that characterized the beginning of 2016 has shown tentative signs of easing, Still, the coming weeks will be characterized by more central bank easing expectations, and we expect the ECB to deliver. A bit later on, the markets need to reprice the Fed outlook, as the next hike we anticipate for June approaches. The emerging markets should be past the worst.

Martin Wolf: Helicopter drops might not be far awayFT
No simple solutions for the global economic imbalances of today exist, only palliatives

Negative rates haven’t hit banks all that hard?FT

G-20 Hopes Crushed: Jack Lew Says "Don't Expect A Crisis Response" – ZH
What the G20 Can Do to Help the Global Recovery – iMFdirect
G20 Surveillance Note – IMF

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Stocks dive, little news to move major markets, oil survey to guide NOK * Figures crucial for Norges Bank’s view * Status quo for European rates until ECB * Scandies approach key levels, NOK may gain on oil survey

Morning MarketsTF
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as oil was knocked overnight by remarks from Opec producers Saudi Arabia and Iran, which undermined a production freeze agreed among four nations.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Market Anxiety Heightened, Oil and Stocks Head Lower, Sterling Can't Catch a Bid

Daily ShotTF
With the oil price remaining relatively low deflation pressure in several countries Brexit fears and German industrial and trade expectations sharply declining markets are still far from calm. Where is the money going?

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Poll: British Euroscepticism nears all-time high but majority favour remaining EU member * Czech PM: Brexit could trigger debate about leaving the EU in our country too * Belgium suspends Schengen as EU border agency warns migrant arrivals up 600% * Cabinet secretary draws up new rules restricting civil servants’ ability to assist pro-Brexit ministers * Carney: Bank of England is making contingency plans in event of Brexit * Market players warn ECB could run short of sovereign bonds to buy

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Cameron taps Obama aide — Migration angst — Borders are back

Risk Off: US Equity Futures Tumble To 1,900 Support; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars


FX UpdateTF
EURUSD needs to get to higher ground soon if it isn’t to fall through the thin ice at 1.1000. Elsewhere sterling remains surprisingly weak given some fresh evidence of stronger support for Britain to stay in the European Union after last week’s summit.

From the FloorTF
Financial markets love a good animal metaphor but for all of the hawks doves bulls and bears stalking our commentary we still lack a zoological code-word for the specific cocktail of weaknesses we are seeing right now. Maybe a cup of coffee will help us concentrate...

Saksa pehmenee * Saudi-Arabialta ei ole luvassa leikkauksia öljyn tuotantoon * Norjan öljyinvestoinnit jatkavat putoamistaan * Fischer painotti Fedin olevan tarkkailumoodissa

Elämä alhaisten korkojen kanssaPeter Nyberg