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Walter Laqueur: Age of European extremes – Politico
Predictions of EU boom are as hubristic as those of its bust
Greece cancels 2012 IMF bailout programme – TF
[video 3min] Short View: Brexit and the euro – FT
HSBC’s Brexit Forecast: Sterling Could Tumble 20% – WSJ
HSBC’s Brexit base case: the abyss – FT
UK Article IV Consultation Press Release – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Concludes 2015 UK’s Article IV Consultation – IMF
IMF chief warns against Brexit – Politico
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Options for the ECB to cushion impact of negative rates – ABN AMRO
The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate much further…but has indicated that it wants to take steps to cushion the blow for banks * A tiered rate system seems to be the most likely approach…but a refi rate cut, a new set of TLTROs and a willingness to take on more risk in accepting collateral or in its ABS programme are also possibilities
Is the ECB doomed to disappoint? – TF
The recent batch of economic data has been so weak that the European Central Bank's earlier promises to ease further have to be redeemed at the March meeting. Unfortunately so much is already expected that investors could be disappointed in the ECB's timidness.
ECB risks running out of bonds to buy unless rewrites rules – Reuters
Not All Fed Presidents On Board With March Pause – Tim Duy
The Fed is on hold. No clear end to the pause. But be wary that some Presidents might want something in return for that pause.
February financial forecasts: Prepare for more easing – Nordea
The market turbulence that characterized the beginning of 2016 has shown tentative signs of easing, Still, the coming weeks will be characterized by more central bank easing expectations, and we expect the ECB to deliver. A bit later on, the markets need to reprice the Fed outlook, as the next hike we anticipate for June approaches. The emerging markets should be past the worst.
Martin Wolf: Helicopter drops might not be far away – FT
No simple solutions for the global economic imbalances of today exist, only palliatives
Negative rates haven’t hit banks all that hard? – FT
G-20 Hopes Crushed: Jack Lew Says "Don't Expect A Crisis Response" – ZH
What the G20 Can Do to Help the Global Recovery – iMFdirect
G20 Surveillance Note – IMF
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Stocks dive, little news to move major markets, oil survey to guide NOK * Figures crucial for Norges Bank’s view * Status quo for European rates until ECB * Scandies approach key levels, NOK may gain on oil survey
Morning Markets – TF
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as oil was knocked overnight by remarks from Opec producers Saudi Arabia and Iran, which undermined a production freeze agreed among four nations.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Market Anxiety Heightened, Oil and Stocks Head Lower, Sterling Can't Catch a Bid
Daily Shot – TF
With the oil price remaining relatively low deflation pressure in several countries Brexit fears and German industrial and trade expectations sharply declining markets are still far from calm. Where is the money going?
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Poll: British Euroscepticism nears all-time high but majority favour remaining EU member * Czech PM: Brexit could trigger debate about leaving the EU in our country too * Belgium suspends Schengen as EU border agency warns migrant arrivals up 600% * Cabinet secretary draws up new rules restricting civil servants’ ability to assist pro-Brexit ministers * Carney: Bank of England is making contingency plans in event of Brexit * Market players warn ECB could run short of sovereign bonds to buy
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Cameron taps Obama aide — Migration angst — Borders are back
US Open – ZH
Risk Off: US Equity Futures Tumble To 1,900 Support; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
EURUSD needs to get to higher ground soon if it isn’t to fall through the thin ice at 1.1000. Elsewhere sterling remains surprisingly weak given some fresh evidence of stronger support for Britain to stay in the European Union after last week’s summit.
From the Floor – TF
Financial markets love a good animal metaphor but for all of the hawks doves bulls and bears stalking our commentary we still lack a zoological code-word for the specific cocktail of weaknesses we are seeing right now. Maybe a cup of coffee will help us concentrate...
FINLAND & FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Saksa pehmenee * Saudi-Arabialta ei ole luvassa leikkauksia öljyn tuotantoon * Norjan öljyinvestoinnit jatkavat putoamistaan * Fischer painotti Fedin olevan tarkkailumoodissa
Elämä alhaisten korkojen kanssa – Peter Nyberg