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Friday, February 19

19th Feb - Suprise - EU-UK deal not done

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Norway Central Bank Chief Warns on Oil Wealth as Coffers RaidedBB
Use of fund in budget could rise to 80 billion kroner: Olsen * Says bank still has room to maneuver on interest rates

ECB’s original sin and Franco Modigliani’s long view vox
The ECB’s response to the Crisis – not providing stimulus to the Eurozone economy when it needed it, and allowing it to slip into a low inflation trap – is a reflection of the monetary union’s faulty architecture. This column recalls a 1998 manifesto from several distinguished scholars that warned EZ policymakers of the potential consequences of a misguided policy framework. Two sets of issues need to be critically addressed by current EZ policymakers: its objectives and instruments.

Euro area: Revisiting the ECB’s Lower Bound Pictet

U.S. core consumer prices post largest gain in four-and-a-half years – Reuters
Core U.S. Consumer Prices Rise by Most in More Than Four Years – BB

Here's What Economists Think About Negative Policy RatesBB
They don't do much for inflation and will last until at least 2018

Euro rates updateNordea

Dented sentiment, desire for safe-havens, eyes on US inflation * US inflation to take another step upwards * Rates directionless with equity markets * US inflation risks sending EURUSD lower

Morning MarketsTF
Share markets retreated in Asia as investors reacted to a dip on Wall Street and oil gave up gains on rising US inventories. Shares headed lower in Tokyo and Sydney giving investors vertigo from the recent rollercoaster ride in equities. The Shanghai Composite lost ground too. In forex markets the won firmed after policymakers in Seoul said they would take steps to curb volatility. And the Aussie dollar took a hit after an RBA board member said the currency was too high and could head even higher on the back of negative interest rate regimes prevailing elsewhere.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU summit talks on UK renegotiation tougher than expected as numerous states raise objections * Cameron hints at late June EU referendum in conversation with Spanish counterpart * Merkel says Germany “ready to compromise” to keep UK in EU, but Renzi warns “some steps backwards” have been made * Austrian Chancellor “will stick to” asylum cap despite EU warnings * ECB accounts hint at further easing in March * Le Pen’s party applies for €27m loan from Russia * At least 80 out of FTSE 100 firms expected to endorse ‘Remain’ vote

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
No UK deal yet — EU summit turns to trench warfare

Futures Sink To Session Lows, Europe Slides Following Chinese RRR Hike Confusion, Brexit Concerns


FX UpdateTF
Sterling weakened as Thursday’s confidence in a positive outcome from the EU-UK talks yielded to more concern overnight as the negotiations dragged on. The yen has been the main beneficiary with the USD hanging on to its coattails. There's big binary risk intraday depending on the UK summit news.

From the FloorTF
Today's trade looks set to be characterised by the ongoing 'Brexit' talks and the uncertain pall they are casting over sterling the euro and sentiment as a whole.

Maailmankauppa kangertelee yhä * Huomio kiinnittyy tänään USA:n inflaatioon * Britannian EU-neuvottelut venyivät eilen yömyöhälle * Meksikon keskuspankki nosti yllättäen ohjauskorkoaan