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Friday, February 26

26th Feb - Heavy data day - good for US, bad for Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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No European solution on the migration crisis in sightOpen Europe

Euro area: Sluggish credit growth encourages further easingNordea
The new figures on bank lending in the Euro area did not show much difference to the earlier months: growth was positive but still weak. If anything, the continuously sluggish credit growth supports the expectations for further monetary policy easing on 10 March.

Euro-Area Disappointments Mount as Inflation Rates Slip Back BB
German, French and Spanish prices all drop in Feb. vs year ago * Inflation data for currency bloc due to be published Monday

Central Bank Fatigue? ECB has plenty of tools Danske Bank

ECB to remove the deposit floor for QE purchases ABN AMRO

Why ECB’s Draghi Needs To Bring Out The Big Guns This Time WSJ
Disappointing expectations of a two-tiered deposit rate could lead to tighter conditions

Rate-Hike Odds Surge To Highest Since JanuaryZH

  Q4 GDP
Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.0% Annual Rate – Bill McBride
What Changed in the Fourth-Quarter U.S. GDP Report – WSJ
U.S. fourth-quarter growth revised up to 1.0 percent – Reuters
U.S. Growth Revised Higher on Upward Adjustment to Inventories – BB
Q4 GDP Revised To 1.0%: Less Inventory Liquidation; Personal Consumption Falls – ZH
Economists React to GDP Report: ‘Less Than Meets the Eye’ – WSJ

Jan von Gerich: Bond spreads: ResilienceNordea
While the link between general risk appetite and intra-Euro-area bond spreads has not been totally broken, the ECB’s purchase programmes have weakened this link considerably. Expectations ahead of the ECB March meeting have been building, and leave spreads with some narrowing potential in the near term. Longer out, the potential for further spread divergence remains.

Impotent global institutions make 'grand bargain' elusiveTF

Special Issue: Hedge Fund Rankings 2015Bloomberg Brief

How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks?BIS
An "old normal": a single global risk factor drives half of the variation in returns. A new normal: global risk factor even more dominant. Fundamentals matter less than whether country designated as an emerging market.

For All its Allure, Helicopter Money Won't FlyView / BB

Germany Opposes Any G-20 Fiscal Stimulus; Focuses on Reform – BB
G-20 Seminar on Structural Reforms -- Opening Remarks by Christine Lagarde – IMF
After the G20, FX intervention edition – FT
G-20 Needs To "Man Up" Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns – FT

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Vain hopes for G-20 action, Irish vote, policy signals from China * UK GDP growth remained resilient in Q4 * Still good demand for bonds * CHF and JPY suffer

Morning MarketsTF
Shares rallied in Tokyo on a positive lead from Wall Street and the jump in crude prices; the rally lost some of its momentum in late trading. Meanwhile in neighbouring China PBoC governor Zhou told the G20 meeting that Beijing won't devalue the yuan to support China's economy. Market watchers are keeping a close eye on the summit which started today (Friday) and continues on Saturday in case world financial leaders and central bankers have more to say on their forex and monetary policy plans.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Global Markets Trying to End Week on Upbeat

Daily ShotTF
Ahead of the G20 meeting in Shanghai we take a closer look at Asia.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Folksy Wisdom and Credit Ratings

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Recriminations fly as meeting of EU ministers on migration descends into chaos * Lord Howard: Voting to leave could force EU leaders to come back with a better reform offer * EU to rethink rules on bank bonuses to grant greater flexibility to smaller entities * New poll: Only 15% of Brits trust MEPs to implement UK-EU deal in full * Ireland goes to the polls with a hung Dáil the most likely outcome

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
French revolution — Election time — Migration tensions

Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement


FX UpdateTF
Global markets are mildly hoping that the Shanghai G20 produces a stimulus-friendly statement. But focus next week likely to shift quickly to US data and key March central bank meetings.

From the FloorTF
The latest inflation figures out of Japan show a country whose experience may well give the lie to the stimulus hopes surrounding the G20 summit in Shanghai.

Mikä onkaan lähtölava * USA:n investointihyödykkeiden tilaukset piristyivät * Ruotsissa luottamus talouteen pysyttelee korkealla * Skandivaluutat liikkuivat hajanaisesti euroa vastaan

Teollisuustyöntekijöiden tappolinjaRoger Wessman

Kuluttajien odotukset yleisestä taloudesta notkahtivat jälleenTilastokeskus