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Tuesday, February 23

23rd Feb - Worsening outlook in Germany

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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New Italian document highlights growing demand for further EU reformOpen Europe
The Italian government has published a new ‘position paper’ outlining a set of proposals for the future of Eurozone and EU integration. Some of the proposals would require EU Treaty change. Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta argues that the Italian document shows the demand for further EU reform is growing in other countries – a very encouraging sign for the UK.

Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating?ECB
When consolidation is implemented via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initial increase, falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is implemented via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio is stronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level, resulting in what we call self-defeating austerity.

George Magnus: Have Brexiteers not heard of the “trilemma”?Prospect
"Outside the EU we would still be subject to 700 international treaties"

Ifo Business Climate Index Drops SharplyCESifo

Is the intrinsic value of macroeconomic news announcements related to their asset price impact?ECB

US manufacturing woes set to continue Danske Bank

GBP: Is the weakening over yet?Nordea

Japan – After rate cut BoJ still needs to do moreABN AMRO

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil has bottomed and new forecasts for the Riksbank and Bank of Japan * Oil price trajectory dependent on Iran * Riksbank more hawkish than expected * Sterling hit by Brexit fears

Morning MarketsTF
Sterling is labouring under another blast of Brexit angst after traders pitched it to a seven-year low against the US dollar yesterday despite UK prime minister David Cameron's attempts to assuage concerns that the country might vote itself out of the European Union. By contrast equities adopted a sanguine tone and the FTSE 100 finished yesterday's session 1.47% ahead though it is tipped to open on a weaker note today.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Euro and Sterling are Sold into Upticks, Yen Firms Further

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Brexit Plans and CoCo Confusion

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron: Government would promptly trigger Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote
Business leaders warn Brexit would risk investment and jobs * Boris Johnson comes under fire from London Assembly for decision to back Brexit * French Foreign Minister: “Everyone has to accept a differentiated Europe” * Italy proposes common bonds to fund EU response to migrant crisis * Child-benefit curbs in UK-EU deal could save Berlin €200m a year * Poll: Dutch voters want their own EU referendum and result would be tight * New study: scrapping Schengen could cost Europe trillions of euros * Greece fears becoming migrant bottleneck as Macedonia imposes border restrcitions * Spain: Ciudadanos leader suggests next 48 hours will be crucial to seal government pact with Socialists * ECB hints at tiered negative deposit rate to reduce pressure on banks * Greek opposition leader says he would choose fresh elections over unity government

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Renzi’s reign — Cameron alone — German migration troubles

Is The Short Squeeze Over? Global Rally Fizzles, Futures Lower


FX UpdateTF
The USD is weak but the euro and sterling are weaker still as the majors are all in a race to the bottom against the Japanese yen at the moment as the BoJ's Kuroda second guesses the efficacy of money printing.

From the FloorTF
China's central bank fixed the yuan at its lowest level since February 5 overnight which knocked sentiment across Asian equity markets. Meanwhile the pound sterling remains under pressure from worries about the chances of Britain leaving the European Union once its citizens vote in a June referendum.

Miinuskorot eivät ole plussa taloudelle * Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit viittaavat tahmaavaan talouskasvuun * Euro heikkeni maanantaina laajalla rintamalla * Raakaöljyn hinta kohosi 35 dollarin tuntumaan

Tammikuun työttömyysaste 9,3 prosenttiaTilastokeskus