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Tuesday, February 16

16th Feb - Oil deal not tight

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euro Bond Crisis Returns As Germany Pushes Euro Sovereign Debt Bail-in ClauseZH

The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening FutureBB

Italian Banks Are All In It Together—and That’s the ProblemWSJ
For Italy, the problem is that the bad loans of the weakest may need to be paid for by the rest

German 'bail-in' plan for government bonds risks blowing up the euroThe Telegraph
'If I were a politician in Italy, I'd want my own currency as fast as possible: that is the only way to avoid going bankrupt,' said German 'Wise Man'

Bail-in rules can’t be changed, but offer some flexibilityItaly24

Asymmetries and Eurozone policymakingvox
The boom-bust cycle in the Eurozone between 2000 and 2008 is essentially a story of cyclical asymmetries between the Core and the Periphery. While stressing the importance of addressing these asymmetries – especially via fiscal policy – the ECB has failed to take them explicitly into account in its own policy-setting. This essay argues that these asymmetries may persist precisely because they are not a central target of stabilisation policy – both fiscal and monetary.

ECB backs proposals to revive EU market for asset-backed securitiesReuters

Draghi's Words Can Bite and $1.2 Trillion of Bonds Show How MuchBB
Almost one-fifth of euro-area debt yields below deposit rate * Markets fully pricing in 10 basis-point cut in March by ECB

Draghi Wants the Cake, and Eat ItFrancesco Saraceno

5 Things to Watch for in the Fed MinutesWSJ

Macroview: The dark side of negative interest ratesPictet
Recent equity market peaks coincided with the ECB and BoJ decisions to impose negative rates. From December 1st to last Friday, the MSCI World index declined by 14%. During the same period, the MSCI world banks index declined by 24%.

El-Erian: The Trouble With Banks Is Contained, for NowView / BB
Continued stock volatility could have serious consequences for the global economy.

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Waiting for the central bank response

Saudis, Russia, Others Agree to Freeze Oil Output at January Levels WSJ
Saudis, Russians Fail To Cut Oil Production, Output FreezedZH

Spies Who Chased Terrorists Join Banks to Hunt for Rogue Traders BB
Barclays, UBS among firms stepping up scrutiny after fines * New hires bring skills from the battlefield to trading floor

Understanding the market turmoilNordea
Main takeaways and slides from a webinar regarding the recent market turmoil

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Has the stock market found a bottom?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Better risk appetite, higher oil prices, confidence to take a hit * German ZEW expected to dive * German bonds duck further losses despite recovering equities * USD rebound continues

Morning MarketsTF
Investors are hoping for a sustained bounce in equities following a solid recovery in Japan but today's European and US data may place further headwinds ahead of struggling stocks.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler

Daily ShotTF
After a week of New Year's holidays China is back in the markets and started the week with a 1.35% rise in the CNY. But PBoC currency policy remains murky and inconsistent providing little guidance for investors. Exchange-rate liberalisation remains a distant dream.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Schulz: I cannot pre-empt European Parliament’s approval of emergency brake on benefits but wrong to speak of a veto * New poll sees Remain lead shrink from 18 to eight points * Cameron expected to call emergency Cabinet meeting after finalising renegotiation * Visegrad Group thwart Merkel and call for ‘Plan B’ on migration crisis * German Constitutional Court to hear case over ECB’s bond-buying programme

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Energy package today — Fragile UK deal — Syria gets worse

Market Euphoria Fizzles As USDJPY Resumes Slide; Crude Disappointed By Lack Of Production Cut


FX UpdateTF
ECB president Draghi did his best to shore up confidence in the central bank put yesterday but let’s see how much traction his rhetoric has after recent signs that markets are losing faith in policymakers' influence. It’s a key test for risk appetite today as the US returns from a long weekend.

From the FloorTF
The European Central Bank president Mario Draghi bolstered sentiment on Monday but markets were still hunting on Tuesday for clarity about whether the bounce was the start of a real recovery or would soon fail.

Japanin sukellukselle ei näy loppua * Lisäviitteitä Englannin keskuspankin varovaisuudesta * Draghin mukaan EKP ei epäröi toimia * Fedin johtajista tänään äänessä Patrick Harker ja Kashkari

Matalat korot syövät pankkien kannattavuuttaRoger Wessman