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Hans-Helmut Kotz: Payback Time in Schengen Land – Project Syndicate
The dissolution of the agreement that instituted passport-free travel within Europe need not mean the end of the EU. But it threatens to undermine the foundational goal of “ever closer union."
The most potent, permanent and elusive figure in British politics – The Guardian
His enemies call him the ‘PM’s puppet-master’. Blair, Brown and Cameron all found him invaluable. He’s been at the heart of the most controversial political episodes of recent times. Just who is Jeremy Heywood?
The Grexit that Could Actually Happen – PIIE
Time for a new Lamfalussy moment – ECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
European Parliament plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report for 2014 – ECB
Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB
The EU and David Cameron: We need to talk about Brexit – Politico
Why we’re not safe from Grexit yet – Politico
Finland: Tight fiscal policy gets a qualified approval – Danske Bank
Chris Arnade: I worked on Wall Street. I am skeptical Hillary Clinton will rein it in – The Guardian
El-Erian: Market Swings Expose Central Banks' Influence and Limits – View / BB
FX: easy pleasy – Nordea
As the major central banks move below zero bound, the Fed sticks out as outlier. Or is Fed the only central bank right - things are getting better from here? Possibly. What is good for Fed, is good for commodity and Emerging FX.
Macro Weekly: Welcome to wall-to-wall stress – TF
No shortage of stress indicators * Cleveland Financial Stress Index climbs * High-yield stress rules the direction of the market * Economic data are going from bad to worse relative to expectations * EURUSD risk reversals are now favoring calls (upside) * Marginal cost of capital in the G-3 is testing 2015 lows * Percentage of NYSE-listed stocks above 200 SMAs is at 2009 and 2011 lows * Cross-asset correlation remains elevated and concerning
New Month, Same Drivers – Marc Chandler
BofA: If "recovery" real, why radical politicians are popular? – ZH
Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility – IMF
FAQ: The Why and What For of BOJ's Negative Interest Rates – Marc Chandler
Bank of Japan warms up the potato – JP Koning
Noah Smith: Japan's Experiment With Rates of Less Than Zero – View / BB
The Neurologist Who Hacked His Brain And Almost Lost His Mind – Wired
Following Time’s Arrow to the Universe’s Biggest Mystery – Wired
Joshua Topolsky: The End of Twitter – The New Yorker
Anthony De Rosa: A Response to “The End of Twitter” – Medium
Inside Facebook’s Decision to Blow Up the Like Button – BB
Chris Cox wants to mess with Facebook’s secret sauce.
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Going Negative a Positive, for Now
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Rough January Signals Challenges for Stocks Ahead
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Chinese data disappoints * Crude oil off Friday’s highs but still holding levels above $35 * Action packed calendar: ISM and Fed speaker later today, US job report Friday
Morning Markets – TF
The Bank of Japan's surprise interest rate cut into negative territory on Friday boosted sentiment across the Asia-Pacific region with shares rising in Tokyo Seoul and Sydney on Monday though Chinese stocks fell as manufacturing data from China remained weak. The generally positive Asian session to start the month followed a robust close for US stocks at the end of last week to cap a miserable January.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Mixed to Start the Week
Daily Shot – TF
With the Bank of Japan rate cut the country's 5-year yield moves deeper into negative territory. According to JPMorgan the total balance of government bonds with negative yields hit $5.5 trillion after the BOJ action on Friday. Incredible.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB
Blockchains, Ponzis and Robot Panic
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Hopes of deal at February summit kept alive as UK and EU officials enter ‘crucial’ 24hr talks * Polls show mixed picture on EU referendum outcome * Merkel expects refugees to return home after conflict subsides * The Times: EU considering plans to prosecute charities and tourists who help migrants arriving in Greece * Greek government caught between creditors and domestic opposition on pension reform * ECB purchases fail to revive asset backed securities market in the Eurozone * EU considers new rules on banks' holdings of sovereign debt * US and EU scrambling to reach new deal on data sharing and privacy * US hits out at Commission for targeting US firms in tax probes * Commission imposes duties on Chinese steel though industry sees them as too low
Brussels Playbook – Politico
UK deal delay — Renzi runaround — Polish intrigue
US Open – ZH
Rally Hobbled As Ugly China Reality Replaces Japan NIRP Euphoria; Oil Rebound Fizzles
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
The market is now pricing almost nothing from the Fed in 2016 after recent market turmoil and a cautious FOMC statement last week meaning significant surprise if US data comes in stronger than expected.
From the Floor – TF
Dovish tones from the Central Banks in Japan and the Eurozone have decreased the likelihood for a series of US rate hikes and this in turn is positive for equities.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kuinka huolissaan Fed on taloustilanteesta? Fischer avaa Fedin ajatusmaailmaa * USA:n teollisuuden luottamus jatkaa laskussa * Kiinan teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksit edelleen vaisuja
Jan Hurri: Lisää miinuskorkoa – ja rahaolot mullin mallin – TalSa
Japanin keskuspankki tekee kuin EKP ja painaa talletuskorkonsa negatiiviseksi. Miinuskorko on valuuttasodan uusi voimakeino, mutta se on silti riskipitoinen rahakoe eikä talouden luotettavaa teholääkettä. Se voi panna rahaolot sekaisin.
Finavian johdannaismies teki diilejä entisen työnantajansa kanssa – TE
Tanska ja Euro – Roger Wessman