Google Analytics

Tuesday, February 2

1st Feb - ECB talking

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Hans-Helmut Kotz: Payback Time in Schengen LandProject Syndicate
The dissolution of the agreement that instituted passport-free travel within Europe need not mean the end of the EU. But it threatens to undermine the foundational goal of “ever closer union."

The most potent, permanent and elusive figure in British politicsThe Guardian
His enemies call him the ‘PM’s puppet-master’. Blair, Brown and Cameron all found him invaluable. He’s been at the heart of the most controversial political episodes of recent times. Just who is Jeremy Heywood?

The Grexit that Could Actually HappenPIIE

Time for a new Lamfalussy momentECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

European Parliament plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report for 2014ECB
Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB

The EU and David Cameron: We need to talk about BrexitPolitico

Why we’re not safe from Grexit yetPolitico

Finland: Tight fiscal policy gets a qualified approvalDanske Bank

Chris Arnade: I worked on Wall Street. I am skeptical Hillary Clinton will rein it inThe Guardian

El-Erian: Market Swings Expose Central Banks' Influence and LimitsView / BB

FX: easy pleasyNordea
As the major central banks move below zero bound, the Fed sticks out as outlier. Or is Fed the only central bank right - things are getting better from here? Possibly. What is good for Fed, is good for commodity and Emerging FX.

Macro Weekly: Welcome to wall-to-wall stressTF
No shortage of stress indicators * Cleveland Financial Stress Index climbs * High-yield stress rules the direction of the market * Economic data are going from bad to worse relative to expectations * EURUSD risk reversals are now favoring calls (upside) * Marginal cost of capital in the G-3 is testing 2015 lows * Percentage of NYSE-listed stocks above 200 SMAs is at 2009 and 2011 lows * Cross-asset correlation remains elevated and concerning

New Month, Same Drivers Marc Chandler

BofA: If "recovery" real, why radical politicians are popular?ZH

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector FragilityIMF

FAQ:  The Why and What For of BOJ's Negative Interest RatesMarc Chandler
Bank of Japan warms up the potatoJP Koning
Noah Smith: Japan's Experiment With Rates of Less Than ZeroView / BB

The Neurologist Who Hacked His Brain And Almost Lost His MindWired

Following Time’s Arrow to the Universe’s Biggest MysteryWired

Joshua Topolsky: The End of TwitterThe New Yorker
Anthony De Rosa: A Response to “The End of Twitter”Medium

Inside Facebook’s Decision to Blow Up the Like ButtonBB
Chris Cox wants to mess with Facebook’s secret sauce.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Going Negative a Positive, for Now

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Rough January Signals Challenges for Stocks Ahead

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese data disappoints * Crude oil off Friday’s highs but still holding levels above $35 * Action packed calendar: ISM and Fed speaker later today, US job report Friday

Morning MarketsTF
The Bank of Japan's surprise interest rate cut into negative territory on Friday boosted sentiment across the Asia-Pacific region with shares rising in Tokyo Seoul and Sydney on Monday though Chinese stocks fell as manufacturing data from China remained weak. The generally positive Asian session to start the month followed a robust close for US stocks at the end of last week to cap a miserable January.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Mixed to Start the Week

Daily ShotTF
With the Bank of Japan rate cut the country's 5-year yield moves deeper into negative territory. According to JPMorgan the total balance of government bonds with negative yields hit $5.5 trillion after the BOJ action on Friday. Incredible.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB

Blockchains, Ponzis and Robot Panic

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Hopes of deal at February summit kept alive as UK and EU officials enter ‘crucial’ 24hr talks * Polls show mixed picture on EU referendum outcome * Merkel expects refugees to return home after conflict subsides * The Times: EU considering plans to prosecute charities and tourists who help migrants arriving in Greece * Greek government caught between creditors and domestic opposition on pension reform * ECB purchases fail to revive asset backed securities market in the Eurozone * EU considers new rules on banks' holdings of sovereign debt * US and EU scrambling to reach new deal on data sharing and privacy * US hits out at Commission for targeting US firms in tax probes * Commission imposes duties on Chinese steel though industry sees them as too low

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
UK deal delay — Renzi runaround — Polish intrigue

Rally Hobbled As Ugly China Reality Replaces Japan NIRP Euphoria; Oil Rebound Fizzles


FX UpdateTF
The market is now pricing almost nothing from the Fed in 2016 after recent market turmoil and a cautious FOMC statement last week meaning significant surprise if US data comes in stronger than expected.

From the FloorTF
Dovish tones from the Central Banks in Japan and the Eurozone have decreased the likelihood for a series of US rate hikes and this in turn is positive for equities.

Kuinka huolissaan Fed on taloustilanteesta? Fischer avaa Fedin ajatusmaailmaa * USA:n teollisuuden luottamus jatkaa laskussa * Kiinan teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksit edelleen vaisuja

Jan Hurri: Lisää miinuskorkoa – ja rahaolot mullin mallinTalSa
Japanin keskuspankki tekee kuin EKP ja painaa talletuskorkonsa negatiiviseksi. Miinuskorko on valuuttasodan uusi voimakeino, mutta se on silti riskipitoinen rahakoe eikä talouden luotettavaa teholääkettä. Se voi panna rahaolot sekaisin.

Finavian johdannaismies teki diilejä entisen työnantajansa kanssaTE

Tanska ja EuroRoger Wessman