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Thursday, February 4

4th Feb - BoE dovish, Europe hit

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Winter 2016 Economic Forecast: Weathering new challengesEC
The European economy is now entering its fourth year of recovery and growth continues at a moderate rate, driven mainly by consumption.

EU cuts eurozone growth forecastPolitico

Merkel’s approval rating tumbles as AfD climbsPolitico

Backlash grows to Schengen backlashPolitico
Business raises alarms about the high cost of restoring borders in Europe.

Portugal--Concluding Statement of Post-Program MonitoringIMF

General strike hits GreecePolitico

Inflation Report, February 2016 – BOE
[video] Inflation Report press conference – BOE
Expectations for the Next Bank of England Rate Hike Just Keep Drifting – WSJ
Carney Says Inflation Pressures Fading as Global Risks Build – BB
Pessimistic BOE Shakes but Doesn't Break Sterling – Marc Chandler
BoE is not 'Fed light' - we now expect first hike in Q1 17 – Danske Bank

Mersch: Policy needs, knowns and unknowns in the aftermath of the crisis – ECB
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2016 – ECB
What's so special about specialization in the euro area? – ECB
Differences between industrial gross value added and production – ECB

Swiss banks rolling down hills gather no bids – FT
Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses – BB
CS Plunges To 25 Year Lows On $5.8 Billion Q4 Loss – ZH
Deutsche Bank CoCos Crash, Italian Bank Stocks Slide – ZH
European Bank Risk Soars To 3 Year Highs, US Risk Rising – ZH
Italy's Bad-Loan Alchemy Aims to Turn Toxic Dross Into GoldBB
How Italy Seeks to Lure Investors to Its Pile of Bad Loans: Q&ABB

Summary Of U.S. Banks' Energy And Commodity ExposureZH

What Oil and Gas’s Ugly 2015 Did to Business InvestmentWSJ

Goldman Forecast: No Rate Hike in March – Bill McBride
Goldman Dials Back Fed Rate-Hike Forecast – WSJ

El-Erian: What the U.S. Jobs Report Needs to Show – View / BB
Jobs Day: Fed likely to delay next hike – Tim Duy
5 Things to Watch in the January Jobs Report – WSJ
Goldman Payroll Preview: 170K Forecast – Bill McBride

Goldman Sachs Fundamentally Questions How Capitalism Is WorkingBB
The profit margins debate could lead to an unsettling conclusion.

The Hottest Idea in Finance: Capital Controls Are GoodWSJ
Long shunned by economists, controls gain support as a way to cope with destabilizing investment flows

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise Amid Chaotic Forex Session

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
A Weakening Dollar Is Good for Stocks…For Now

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Jump in oil, tumble in the USD, also US service sector suffering * BoE to revise down its inflation forecast * Inflation expectations fallen back to very low levels * EUR/USD surges to 1.11

Morning MarketsTF
Prices for oil and other commodities have surged higher on a slide in the US dollar. Meanwhile talk of a meeting between oil ministers from Russia Iran and four other leading producer nations has raised hopes of a return to stability in crude prices.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Retreat Extends

Daily ShotTF
The US ISM non-manufacturing report missed consensus and send USD into the red. EUR GBP and EM currencies as well as the prices of commodities did profit.

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Hollande: No “new adjustments” to UK-EU deal * Juncker hints at 7-year ‘emergency brake’ on welfare access but MEPs must approve changes * Polish commentators broadly welcome UK-EU renegotiation compromise * EU finally agrees financing of €3bn migration-fund for Turkey as Merkel continues decline in polls * Goldman Sachs raises capital flow concerns in event of Brexit * Draghi warns difficulties in structuring policy do not justify inaction

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit briefs — Spanish politics — Schengen costs

Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles


FX UpdateTF
The New York Fed’s Dudley let loose with dovish rhetoric in an interview yesterday confirming market suspicions in a large downgrade of the Fed’s rate hike intentions. The market dumped dollars on this and weak US payrolls data tomorrow could further pressure the USD across the board.

From the FloorTF
Market volatility is very apparent today particularly in crude oil which has strengthened again despite inventories growing. The weak USD is one of the reasons and this benefits EM currencies as well. How the Fed will react remains to be seen but further rate hikes have become less likely.

Jenkkidata pehmenee! * Dudley ilmaisi huolensa viimeaikaisesta rahoitusolosuhteiden kiristymisestä * USA:n palvelusektori osoitti hidastumisen merkkejä * Englannin keskuspankki pitää ohjauskoron ennallaan

Hallitus haluaa karsia Yleisradion tehtäviä ja leikata rahoitustaHS
Syksyllä 90 vuotta täyttävän Yleisradion tehtävästä käydään nyt kovaa poliittista vääntöä.

Arviointineuvosto, julkisen talouden kestävyys ja talouspolitiikan rajatImage