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EUROPE
The Economic Cost of Rolling Back Schengen – France
Stratégie
The economic
consequences of re-establishing permanent border controls within the Schengen
Area.
European political risk is here to stay – ABN
AMRO
European political risk
is likely to continue to linger…given political fragmentation across the
continent * Portugal might be particularly vulnerable to fiscal slippage * Meanwhile,
there is a significant risk of UK exit from the EU
UNITED
KINGDOM
EU draft deal on Britain
not a euro zone veto: Tusk letter – Reuters
Cameron’s EU deal
blasted by British press – Politico
The UK’s renegotiation:
Keeping up appearances – Europp
Cameron’s draft
deal – how does Europe see it? – Open
Europe
Cameron Grilled on
Europe Deal – By His Own Party – BB
UNITED STATES
Resisting Change? – Tim
Duy
A substantial part of
their policy still appears directed by a pre-conceived notion of
"normal" policy. This I think is the Fed's largest error; the fact
that the yield curve stubbornly resists being pushed higher suggests that the
Fed's estimates of the terminal fed funds rates is wildly optimistic. There
appear to be limits to which the Fed can resist the global pull of zero (or
lower) rates.
OTHER
G20 plays by the book as unnerved markets crave
succor – Reuters
A “grand bargain” might
soon be needed, but things would first have to get worse.
Tumbling Oil Prices Are Wiping Out Saudi Arabia’s
Budget Efforts – WSJ
Harold James: The Death Throes of Oil – Project
Syndicate
Policymakers in
industrialized countries need to stop thinking about falling oil prices as
representing risks to the economy and start considering their geopolitical
implications.
Dollar Suffers Worst Day in 7 Years as Traders
Face Fed Reality – BB
Fed’s Dudley says outlook
could be changed.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Oil Prices Fall Again, Dragging
Stocks Down
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Wall Street sours on
stocks
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Risk-off despite better China PMI,
EUR and JPY gain, US ISM to give clue on jobs * Hopes that US ISM will signal
solid jobs growth on Friday * Market pricing in less tightening/more easing as
stocks drop * EUR and JPY still the safe havens
Morning Markets – TF
Equity markets took a hammering
across Asia with sharp falls in Tokyo Shanghai Hong Kong Sydney and Mumbai on
the Wall Street selloff and falling crude prices. Stocks in Tokyo lost gains
made on the back of the recent BoJ interest rate surprise. One of the few
bright spots in the Asia region was India where the Nikkei India Services PMI
for January came in at 54.3 up from 53.6 in December – signalling robust
expansion in a key corner of Asia's third largest economy.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Edges Lower, Markets Trying
to Stabilize
Daily Shot – TF
Good news from the
Eurozone, namely Spain, Greece and Germany * But despite improving labor market
fundamentals and QE inflation is still lacking * China's services sector
activity surprised to the upside * US stocks might be overvalued
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Yahoo, Drugs and Argentina
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Tusk tabled draft deal
for the UK as May hints she will back remaining in the EU * Proposed UK-EU deal
gets mixed welcome from European politicians * German press reaction to draft
deal: “Cameron is putting into action what other EU states want” * Proposed deal
met with scepticism by UK press * End to Schengen would cost Europe €110bn
French think tank warns * Spanish Socialist leader faces uphill struggle as he
is asked to try and form government * EU and US reach breakthrough in data
protection talks
Brussels Playbook – Politico
UK deal fallout — The
Italian Job — Trailing Trump
US Open – ZH
Europe Falls, U.S. Futures Rise As
Oil Halts Two-Day Plunge
Frontrunning – ZH
We’re seeing dramatic
gyrations in world bond and equity markets this week but so far this has seen
little transmission into the major currency exchange rates as traders seem to
lack conviction on what the market turmoil means for currencies.
FX markets perplexed and
hungry for a new direction after BoJ rate cut
* China could print the biggest monthly drop ever in FX reserves * Markets
now pricing in only one half of a US rate hike up through Jan 2017 * Garnry
still believes in Michael Kors * WTI under more pressure than Brent in
anticipation of new US inventories increase
FINLAND & FINNISH
Suomen
ja Itävallan lainat menettävät edelleen asemaansa * USA:n palvelusektorin
luottamusindeksi antaa viitteitä perjantain työllisyysluvuista * Kiinan
palvelusektori teki korjausliikkeen * Raakaöljyn jyrkkä hinnanlasku heilutti
valuuttamarkkinoita
Toivoton tilanne –
yritykset eivät odota suhdanteen elpyvän – Verkkouutiset
EK:n
suhdannebarometri paljastaa, että yritykset eivät odota tuotannon elpymistä
vielä lähiaikoina.
Jan Hurri: Outo tilanne:
Suomi tienaa nyt ottamalla velkaa – TalSa
Politiikan
paineet vaativat hallitusta karttamaan ja paheksumaan valtion velkaantumista.
Talouden tosiasiat kannustavat kuitenkin ottamaan lisää velkaa, sillä
miinuskorko on valtiolle ilmaista rahaa.
"Meillä on
ongelmia" – MTV
Presidentti
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