Google Analytics

Monday, February 22

22nd Feb - Oil rises, Sterling sinks

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Germany Isn't Investing as in the Past and That's a ProblemBB
Borrowing costs have never been lower, domestic demand is high. Yet there's little no sign of an investment boom any time soon

How Putin Is Surviving Lost Oil RevenueView / BB

The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening FutureBB

Draghi adds pressure to Greece on bailout reviewPolitico

What did the UK achieve in its EU renegotiation? – Open Europe
The U.K. Wasn't a Real EU Member Anyway – View / BB
Open Europe responds to UK-EU agreement – Open Europe
Cameron Appeals to Johnson on EU Deal as `Brexit' Sides Line Up – BB
Thanks to Cameron’s deal, Britain has the best of both worlds – Philippe Legrain

David Cameron starts EU fight, Boris wavers – Politico
Boris Johnson joins campaign to leave EU – The Guardian
Should I stay or should I go now – Polemic’s Pains
Boris, Dave and the battle of Brexit – Politico
June referendum will forever change UK and EU – Politico

Brexit on the mind – Nordea
Boris’ speech, the fall in Sterling and identifying the Brexit effect – Tony Yates
Steen Jacobsen: What Brexit really means – TF
Why the European Union will benefit from Brexit – Paul De Grauwe
Sovereignty and Brexit – Marc Chandler
UK: To Brexit, or not to Brexit? – Pictet 

Jan von Gerich: US inflation: It’s aliveNordea
While the market remains concerned about another US recession, underlying price pressures continue to build up. Inflation is not a leading indicator, but the recent readings should make the Fed more confident inflation is rising towards its target, and thus support further tightening of policy.  Today’s numbers support the case for further rate hikes by the Fed, even if March comes too early, and leaves the market vulnerable for another repricing of the Fed outlook, though not quite yet.

FX: credit warningNordea
A relief for GBP? Bad news from Europe = good news for EUR. In the bigger picture it is still "inflation creeping back" environment which is pro-risk for now...

The Big Long: Making a Killing in Market Everyone Left for DeadBB
Former HBOS traders made as much as 800% on asset-backed bonds * Pair bought bonds shunned after subprime crisis spread to U.K.

Martin Enlund: Global: if no cooperation, then what?Nordea
Market participants may have over-interpreted the negative impact from NIRP on both banks and markets. Rate spreads still matter for currencies, NIRP or not. ECB is now sending soothing signals re: bank regulation while opening up for a tiered rates system which could pave the way for deep cuts. As for monetary policy, if the FX transmission mechanism is weaker, ECB needs to either over-deliver or to restore the transmission mechanism (maybe via G20 cooperation?).

A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016BB
Bloomberg News asked dozens of former and current diplomats, geopolitical strategists, security consultants, and economists to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2016.

Sovereign Wealth Funds May Sell Half Trillion In Stocks This YearZH

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Positive Euro bank news, Brexit vote set, Johnson weighs on GBP * European PMIs to be hit by recent market turbulence * A Trifecta of positive news for European banks * Boris Johnson weighing on GBP

Morning MarketsTF
Sterling has been pushed lower against other major currencies after Boris Johnson declared he would throw his political weight behind the Brexit effort. Data-wise the first day of the week gives us Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs and mild contractions are expected across all three main indices.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Thoughts about the Price Action

Daily ShotTF
Prices in the United States continue to grow and CPI is above 2% while in the Eurozone inflation expectations remain near record lows. Central Banks will act accordingly. In emergin markets like Venezuela and Mexico governments and Central Banks are also facing challenges but of a different kind.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
CDS Fights and Golden Parachutes

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU referendum campaign gets underway with Boris Johnson and a number of MPs backing Brexit * Big business backs UK deal and Remain vote * European media responds to UK-EU deal * Germany seeks to apply child benefit curbs off the back of UK-EU deal * Kathimerini: Merkel sounded Hollande out over Grexit ahead of crucial Eurogroup last summer * CDU on course for disappointing set of regional election results * New poll shows Ireland remains on course for hung parliament after upcoming general election

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Boris or David? — Merkel looks into benefit ban — TTIP talks resume

Markets Surge On Chinese Debt Flood; Worst European PMI In Over A Year; Crashing Pound


FX UpdateTF
Cameron returns to the UK with a weak batch of concessions ahead of a June referendum and popular fellow Conservative Boris Johnson has come out in favor of leaving the EU. What to make of sterling’s prospects? Elsewhere EURUSD lingers near support and JPY remains resilient.

From the FloorTF
Shares in Shanghai are up after changes at the securities' regulator which make market participants hope for more transparency. In Europe after David Cameron's talks with the EU the possible Brexit is still high on the agenda.

Ostopäälliköiltä tulossa masentiva uutisia * Britannia ja EU-maat pääsivät viikonloppuna sopuun * USA:n hintapaineet kasautuvat * Riksbankin kokouspöytäkirja tavallista kiinnostavampi

Jan Hurri: Seuraava vedätys on "operaatio suuret setelit"TalSa
Euroalueen keskuspankki EKP harkitsee suurimpien euroseteleiden poistamista käytöstä. Se perustelee aietta rikollisen rahaliikenteen haitoilla ja kiistää jahtaavansa rehellisten säästäjien rahoja. Kiistää tai ei, käytännössä setelisilppuri ajaisi käteisrahaa pankkeihin – sopivasti ennen kuin yleisönkin talletuskorot painuvat miinukselle.

Suomi g-voimien puristuksessaSakari Heikkinen

Mitä EKP voisi tehdä maaliskuussa?Roger Wessman