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Thursday, February 18

18th Feb - UK-EU talks final day

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Opinions, Moods and Preferences of European CitizensBertelsmann

The One Shock Russia Dodged Is Now Catching Up With PutinBB

Angela Merkel Is Feeling the Strain Over MigrantsBB

Account of the January monetary policy meetingECB

How the ‘Brexit’ Summit Will Unfold and Why You Should Care: Q&A – BB
Leaked Brexit summit text: Full annotated document – FT
What European capitals think of David Cameron’s EU reforms – Politico
Editorial: Europe's Last Chance to Keep the U.K. – View / BB
Stephen Pope: Brexit’s costs and benefits – TF
To BRexit, or To BRemain? – euinside

FOMC Minutes and MoreTim Duy
The Fed is on hold, stuck in risk management mode until the skies clear. If you are in the "recession" camp, the path forward is obvious. The Fed cuts back to zero, drags its heals on more QE, and fumbles around as they try to figure out if negative rates are a good or bad thing. Not pretty. But if you are in the "no recession" camp, it's worth thinking about the implications of a Fed pause now on the pace of hikes later. Being on hold now raises the risk that by the time the Fed moves again, they will be behind the cycle.

Martin Enlund: EUR: another monetary mishap? No.Nordea
EUR gains, European bank worries and the oil price plunge are all indicative of an übersoft ECB, which should help keep the single currency on the back foot unless overwhelmed by repatriation of capital due to bank deleveraging.
Martin Enlund: USD: inflation expectations, Quo Vadis?Nordea
US policy-makers such as NY Fed's Dudley have argued the Fed can tolerate low market-based inflation expectations. However, things would change materially if surveys start to show signs of becoming too low (so-called de-anchoring of expectations). In this brief piece we take a look at various measures of inflation expectations and find that evidence of de-anchoring remains inconclusive, although some developments could be seen as a bit worrisome by Fed doves.

JPY pain, charted and extrapolatedFT

OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast and Warns of Growing RisksBB
Brazil, Germany, Canada, U.S. forecasts cut most severely * G-20 ministers urged to tackle lack of demand in Shanghai

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

FOMC minutes depresses yields and lifts equites * Finally some inflation in Sweden? * Majors lose to USD on better US inflation data

Morning MarketsTF
The bears are in retreat over crude optimism evident in equities forex and commodity prices. Hopes that top oil producers are making progress in tackling the supply glut is behind the upbeat mood with Iran apparently backing the Saudi and Russian output freeze proposal.

Daily ShotTF
China and Japan are sending negative signals to the world while Ithe oil price is up again and investors are willing to take more risk again.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel: UK renegotiation demands are “justified”, keeping Britain in EU “is in our national interest” * Latest draft deal shows UK is facing resistance on safeguards for non-Eurozone countries * Boris Johnson still on fence over EU ahead of publication of new parliamentary sovereignty package * EU-Turkey mini-migrant summit cancelled in wake of Ankara attacks * Renzi: We would veto Eurozone-wide cap on banks’ government bond holdings

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit deal day — Turkey bombing — Migration mini-summit canceled

Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts


FX UpdateTF
The Japanese yen is not responding to the steep rally in risk sentiment as it normally does as EURJPY continues to eye the cycle lows ahead of today’s ECB minutes release. Elsewhere Mexico slammed the peso shorts with a triple whammy of a surprise interest rate hike new intervention policy and fiscal measures.

From the FloorTF
Markets are in the green after a very weak start into the year. Stock picking might allow for high returns though – even in the energy sector.

Suomen inflaatio lävähtää pakkaselta plussalle * EU:n huippukokous alkaa tänään * USA:n teollisuustuotanto elpyi voimakkaasti tammikuussa * Ei yllätyksiä Fedin kokouspöytäkirjassa