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EUROPE
Bloomberg Brief:
Brexit Special
– BB
It
simply isn’t possible to know in advance how much fear will set in to markets
or how consumers and businesses in the U.K. will respond. That’s because there are
no good precedents. Still, it is possible to model a stylized scenario that
captures some of the potential impact. Confidence, credit provision and
exchange-rate risk could all combine to deliver a nasty shock to the British
economy.
MIGRANT CRISIS
EU
gives Greece three months to fix its borders – Politico
Will
Greece Become a Refugee Bottleneck? – Spiegel
Greece
& Schengen – Klaus Kastner
Italian
Foreign Minister: 'The Toughest Crisis in EU History' – Spiegel
French
PM says Merkel’s migration policy ‘unsustainable’ – Politico
EU
Is Poised to Restrict Passport-Free Travel – NYT
Turkish-German Pact: EU
Split by Merkel's Refugee Plan – Spiegel
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi's Knack for
Market Turnarounds on Review as Doubt Grows – BB
ECB
president to appear before European Parliament on Monday * Investors less
willing to rally to negative-rate policies
Wolfgang Münchau:
Four signs another eurozone financial crisis is looming – FT
The
markets are saying they are losing faith in Draghi’s pledge to do ‘whatever it
takes’
ECB in talks with Italy over buying bundles of
bad loans – Reuters
ECB is in talks with the
Italian government about buying bundles of bad loans as part of its
asset-purchase program and accepting them as collateral from banks in return
for cash, the Italian Treasury said.
Italy’s Banking Crisis Spirals Elegantly out of
Control – Wolf
Richter
How to dump toxic waste
on the public through the backdoor.
ECB’s quantitative easing programme: limits and
risks – Bruegel
The ECB has made a
series of changes to its QE programme in order to expand the universe of
purchasable assets and have more flexibility in the execution of the programme.
However this might not be enough to sustain QE throughout 2017. The extension
of the programme also raises questions about its potential adverse
consequences.
ECB's 'Whatever It Takes' May Be Too Much for
German Top Court – BB
ECB's OMT bond-buying
program returns to German top tribunal * Case exposes German judges' struggles
with EU rulings
Introductory statement by President Mario Draghi – ECB
Hearing at the European
Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
Euro-area price expectations call for ECB to act
– BB
OTHER
The case for
“global quantitative tightening” – Sober
Look
In
January 2016, global foreign reserves (FX) continued their decline after an
absolute peak in June 2014, declining significantly in distressed emerging
countries and some notable oil-producing economies
Paul Krugman: What Have
We Learned Since 2008? – Princeton
FX: critical
levels
– Nordea
Has
risk aversion peaked yet? The USD has a good chance to recover against the EUR
and the JPY then... Bad news is no news, which could be sufficient to cause
some repricing.
History
and major causes of US banking disintermediation * How long the Commodity Blues
will play?
Editorial
: Europe’s resilience * US : Zero no more * Eurozone : Once more unto the
breach! * Germany : A mild winter * France : 2016, the year unemployment
finally levels * Italy : A gradual recovery * Spain : Dynamic economy,
log-jammed politics * Brazil : Downfall! * Russia : Low oil prices threaten
fragile stabilization * India : Public banks under scrutiny * China : The year
starts off badly * Japan : Slow but steady * Ireland : Wind in its sails
Editorial
: Seems like dejà vu * Brazil : Downfall! * Russia : Low oil prices threaten
fragile stabilization * India : Public banks under scrutiny * China : The year
starts off badly * Malaysia : Rough spell * Poland : In the same boat * Romania
: Fiscal stimulus * Saudi Arabia : Fiscal austerity needed but not sufficient *
Colombia : Between hope and disappointment * Argentina : A long road ahead * South
Africa : In ill-times * Ivory coast : Still going strong
Bank recapitalisation and economic recovery
after financial crises
– vox
Decisive and early
recapitalisation of banks can shorten recessions by several years and help
speed up recovery.
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Draghi to the rescue? Yields rise as
risk appetite returns, euro weakens as equities rise
Morning Markets – TF
Japanese shares soared on Monday and
the Nikkei 225 closed 7.16% higher despite new data revealing a 1.4%
contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to expectations of a
1.2% narrowing. Meanwhile the one ingredient missing from last week's market
carnage has now returned to the fray – China.
Daily Shot – TF
Bank CDS spreads are
catching up with widening bank bond spreads and the price-to-book of major US
banking shares has dropped to crisis-era levels which seems overdone as the US
banking system is the healthiest it's been in years. The last few weeks have
brought a dramatic shift in market expectations of the US Federal Reserve's
policy trajectory. And in the Eurozone markets now expect rates to be cut by 23
basis points this year — deep into negative territory. In fact markets are now
pricing in cuts by nine out of 10 G-10 central banks this year.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Other EU countries would
not want the UK to succeed after Brexit, Hammond warns * Cameron and Merkel
present united stance on EU reform ahead of crucial week * HSBC keeps HQ in
London but warns Brexit could see some jobs move to Paris * New survey of
British and German entrepreneurs finds strong support for UK remaining inside
the EU * New poll: Six out of ten voters do not expect Cameron to get a good EU
deal * French PM: We’re not in favour of permanent refugee quotas and won’t be
taking more refugees * Irish PM warns voters over potential political
instability, citing Portugal as an example * Pension reform continues to divide
Greece and its creditors
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Brexit week — New Cold
War — Republican fight club
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes
After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze
Frontrunning – ZH
The market is setting a
hopeful tone to start the week as China is back from holiday and talking up its
currency. ECB speakers later today are the chief interest as US markets are
closed for President’s Day.
China's central bank
fixed the yuan surprisingly stronger calming fears of a further devaluation and
igniting a rally across Asian markets with Japanese equities soaring. Japan's
Nikkei jumped more than 7% and the yen softened against the dollar as risk-off
sentiment subsided.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Draghilla mahdollisuus yllättää tänään *
Riskinottohalukkuus elpyi perjantaina * Kiina palasi lomilta heikoin eväin *
USA:n vähittäismyynnin vahvuus yllätti myönteisesti
Maahanmuutosta tulossa kehysriihen jättiriita - hintalappu tulisi julki – MTV
Timo Haapala: Riitely
maahanmuutosta iskee hallituksen sisälle nyt uutta reittiä, kehysriihen
kautta. Hallituksen edessä on rankka
tappelu, pannaanko/piilotetaanko maahanmuuttokustannukset budjettikehyksiin,
vai hoidetaanko asia lisävelalla - silloin maahanmuuttokustannuksille tulee
myös julkinen hintalappu.
Jan
Hurri: Tämän takia Deutsche Bank voi olla sinunkin painajaisesi –
TalSa
Analyysi Euromaiden yhteinen euro, yhteinen
pankkiunioni ja nyt myös yhteiset miinuskorot varmistavat, että kaikilla
eurokansalaisilla on myös yhteiset pankkipainajaiset. Yksi niistä voi olla
Deutsche Bank. Jos se kaatuu, Suomi kuuluu sijaiskärsijöihin.