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Wednesday, February 17

17th Feb - The nasty surprise rally day

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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How the UK press covered Brexit on the eve of EU summit – Politico
Angela Merkel: Many British EU demands ‘justified’ – Politico
Europe, the British project – Politico
EU Reform should not be about UK exceptionalism – Open Europe

Soft minutes support uncertain Fed on hold – Danske Bank
Economic, financial developments increasing the downside risks  Bill McBride
Fed Fears Global Financial, Economic Risks, Tight Financial Conditions, China – ZH
WSJ's Fed Whisperer Confirms - Fed Is Confused – ZH

Martin Enlund: USD: de-anchoring, a new threat to the dollar?Nordea
The market has been worrying more and more about US growth prospects, and could soon start to worry about de-anchoring of inflation expectations. We think US growth is slowing, but that this slowdown won’t be enough to prompt Fed easing (beyond its current wait-and-see approach). If we are right, the Fed will at least be hiking in relative terms as other central banks seem set to go deeper down the rabbit hole.

Negative rates and bank profitabilityFrances Coppola
I suspect that the principal effect of negative interest rates (especially in combination with QE) will not be to increase bank lending but to depress the exchange rate. And when everyone is depressing the exchange rate, there is an unpleasant race to the bottom and global trade grinds to a halt. We have played this scene before. It did not end well last time. Why do we think this time is different?

Yup, negative rates were a really bad idea FT

Short squeeze or base, or both?Polemic’s Pains

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Saudi and Russia agrees on oil freeze, rising yields, subdued risk aversion * US industrial production data to support risk appetite? * Yields rise as oil cuts smothered into a simple freeze * JPY soars on safe haven flows

Morning MarketsTF
Top crude producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to freeze oil output as long as Iran and Iraq come to the party. But markets pushed crude prices lower over disappointment that oil producers are only talking about a freeze and not a cut and even the freeze looks unlikely.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Leaked memo highlights fears of ‘reform contagion’ from UK-EU deal * Bundesbank hits out at ECB bond buying in hearing at German Constitutional Court * European business groups call on UK to remain in “competitive and outward-looking” EU * New poll shows large majority of Europeans think the UK should remain in the EU * Juncker calls for European finance minister to distribute fund in migrant crisis * Greek government expects bailout review to be completed “very soon” without specifying when * EU attempts to reduce reliance on Russian gas * Sarkozy’s presidential ambitions suffer blow as he is placed under investigation as part of campaign funding probe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Summit power rankings — Top Brexit reads

S&P Futures Storm Above 1900, Europe Jumps Despite Gloomy Asian Session


From the FloorTF
GBP and UK's Premier David Cameron are under pressure amid fears of a Brexit and opposition against the UK-EU deal. Meanwhile corprorate bonds and equities might offer chances.

Laiha öljysopimus, joka uhkaa kaatua * Britannian pohjainflaatio hidastui odotettua enemmän * USA:n teollisuustuotannon kasvu kääntynyt positiiviseksi * Britannian työttömyys laskenut edelleen

Tutkimus varoittaa maahanmuuton uhkistaHS
Maahanmuuttoon liittyy vakavia turvallisuusuhkia ja rikollisuutta, joihin Suomi on valmistautunut huonosti. Näin arvioi hallituksen tilaama selvitys.

Poliisiammattikorkeakoulun selvitys antaa kokonaisvaltaisen tilannekuvan maahanmuutosta ja turvallisuudestaTieto Käyttöön

Lipsahtiko Sipilältä? Yli kuudesosa budjettisäästöistä on tehty maahanmuuton takiaProfessorin ajatuksia