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EUROPE
BREXIT
How the UK press covered
Brexit on the eve of EU summit – Politico
Angela Merkel: Many
British EU demands ‘justified’ – Politico
Europe, the British
project – Politico
EU Reform should not be
about UK exceptionalism – Open
Europe
UNITED STATES
FOMC
MINUTES
Soft minutes support
uncertain Fed on hold – Danske
Bank
Economic, financial
developments increasing the downside risks – Bill
McBride
Fed Fears Global
Financial, Economic Risks, Tight Financial Conditions, China – ZH
WSJ's Fed Whisperer
Confirms - Fed Is Confused – ZH
The market has been
worrying more and more about US growth prospects, and could soon start to worry
about de-anchoring of inflation expectations. We think US growth is slowing,
but that this slowdown won’t be enough to prompt Fed easing (beyond its current
wait-and-see approach). If we are right, the Fed will at least be hiking in
relative terms as other central banks seem set to go deeper down the rabbit
hole.
I suspect that the
principal effect of negative interest rates (especially in combination with QE)
will not be to increase bank lending but to depress the exchange rate. And when
everyone is depressing the exchange rate, there is an unpleasant race to the
bottom and global trade grinds to a halt. We have played this scene before. It
did not end well last time. Why do we think this time is different?
Yup, negative rates were a really bad idea – FT
Short squeeze or base, or both? – Polemic’s
Pains
REGULARS
Saudi and Russia agrees on oil
freeze, rising yields, subdued risk aversion * US industrial production data to
support risk appetite? * Yields rise as oil cuts smothered into a simple freeze
* JPY soars on safe haven flows
Top crude producers including Saudi
Arabia and Russia have agreed to freeze oil output as long as Iran and Iraq come
to the party. But markets pushed crude prices lower over disappointment that
oil producers are only talking about a freeze and not a cut and even the freeze
looks unlikely.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc Chandler
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Leaked memo highlights
fears of ‘reform contagion’ from UK-EU deal * Bundesbank hits out at ECB bond
buying in hearing at German Constitutional Court * European business groups
call on UK to remain in “competitive and outward-looking” EU * New poll shows
large majority of Europeans think the UK should remain in the EU * Juncker
calls for European finance minister to distribute fund in migrant crisis * Greek
government expects bailout review to be completed “very soon” without
specifying when * EU attempts to reduce reliance on Russian gas * Sarkozy’s
presidential ambitions suffer blow as he is placed under investigation as part
of campaign funding probe
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Summit power rankings —
Top Brexit reads
US Open – ZH
S&P Futures Storm Above 1900,
Europe Jumps Despite Gloomy Asian Session
Frontrunning – ZH
GBP and UK's Premier
David Cameron are under pressure amid fears of a Brexit and opposition against
the UK-EU deal. Meanwhile corprorate bonds and equities might offer chances.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Laiha
öljysopimus, joka uhkaa kaatua * Britannian pohjainflaatio hidastui odotettua
enemmän * USA:n teollisuustuotannon kasvu kääntynyt positiiviseksi * Britannian
työttömyys laskenut edelleen
Maahanmuuttoon
liittyy vakavia turvallisuusuhkia ja rikollisuutta, joihin Suomi on
valmistautunut huonosti. Näin arvioi hallituksen tilaama selvitys.
Poliisiammattikorkeakoulun
selvitys antaa kokonaisvaltaisen tilannekuvan maahanmuutosta ja
turvallisuudesta – Tieto Käyttöön
Lipsahtiko Sipilältä? Yli
kuudesosa budjettisäästöistä on tehty maahanmuuton takia – Professorin ajatuksia